Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[skyline385]

Bizarre AIFS run which is somewhat giving credit to the GFS solution

[WaveBreaking]

Bizarre AIFS run which is somewhat giving credit to the GFS solution

https://i.imgur.com/FCUyDzy.gif

AIFS calling for Beryl 2

[IcyTundra]

Bizarre AIFS run which is somewhat giving credit to the GFS solution

https://i.imgur.com/FCUyDzy.gif

It's a bit hard to tell but it looks like remnants of the current AOI eventually track west across Florida after stalling/looping off the Florida coast on this model run.

[skyline385]

Bizarre AIFS run which is somewhat giving credit to the GFS solution

https://i.imgur.com/FCUyDzy.gif

It's a bit hard to tell but it looks like remnants of the current AOI eventually track west across Florida after stalling/looping off the Florida coast on this model run.

Nah that's exactly what is happening, might not even be remnants but just a weak system crossing FL considering the coarse AIFS resolution.

[LarryWx]

0Z ICON: similar track to 12Z but much weaker

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: well W of 12Z run with it stalling in NE Gulf 50 miles S of Destin:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.2N 85.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 108 24.2N 85.0W 1009 30
0000UTC 05.08.2024 120 25.9N 86.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.1N 86.3W 1008 34
0000UTC 06.08.2024 144 28.8N 86.3W 1007 39
1200UTC 06.08.2024 156 29.5N 86.6W 1007 38
0000UTC 07.08.2024 168 29.7N 86.5W 1005 28

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS seems to stall it in the NE gulf and becomes a hurricane. Not really sure how believable that solution is at this range though.

[BobHarlem]

0z CMC is weak, but it moves left into Florida from Key largo up through the spine and out Jacksonville and then hits the Outer Banks. (12z was just east of Florida). 0z GFS is strong again once in the Gulf, just a very slow moving landfall further east into Orange Beach, AL as a cat 2. (Also lots and lots of rain from it in Florida before it develops, and even more rain from the slow moving landfall around Alabama)

[LarryWx]

The 12Z JMA was also NE Gulf with landfall of weak low in FL panhandle.

0Z GFS a H in AL/W FL panhandle.

So, 3 of 6 latest models’ runs in NE Gulf: UK, JMA, GFS.

My gut says this will end up an exclusively Gulf storm.

[Stratton23]

00z GEFS is more active, and more members in the gulf too

[Teban54]

My gut says this will end up an exclusively Gulf storm.

Just curious: Are there any scientific reasons why you said that, such as placing more trust on JMA and UKMET than an average person does, or thinking that certain factors regarding GFS's evolution are more believable than ECMWF's?

[LarryWx]

My gut says this will end up an exclusively Gulf storm.

Just curious: Are there any scientific reasons why you said that, such as placing more trust on JMA and UKMET than an average person does, or thinking that certain factors regarding GFS's evolution are more believable than ECMWF's?

Hey Teban,
Here are my reasons:
-UKMET/JMA significant W shifts
-GFS in Gulf 7 runs in a row
-EPS mean shifted left last 2 runs
-Considering early August climo vs later in season
-La Niña climo vs El Nino
-I’m not trusting any model as this is just a gut feel based on combo of factors listed above

[Stratton23]

Big shift west on the 00z GEPS ( albeit few members ) little more ridging as well, members range from new orleans to tallahasse

[WaveBreaking]

Convection continues to increase W of the wave axis, but the AOI is still broad and disorganized.



The AOI now has a nearly complete envelope of moisture compared to ~24 hours ago.

[ThunderForce]

Hate to admit it, but I think these new model runs have raised my anxiety level.

[Woofde]

Hate to admit it, but I think these new model runs have raised my anxiety level.

Its nothing to seriously worry about yet. Very iffy model support, plenty of dry air abound. If this was late August it might be a different story. Its worth watching, but this setup doesn't scream a major threat right now. I say this as someone who loves chasing these beasts. No reason to lose sleep over this wave.

[Stratton23]

Woofde id still air on the side of caution with this wave, i dont expect anything major, but you never know some times, if it manages to fight off the dry air, it could surprise someone, but probably more so the eastern gulf

[Woofde]

Woofde id still air on the side of caution with this wave, i dont expect anything major, but you never know some times, if it manages to fight off the dry air, it could surprise someone, but probably more so the eastern gulf

I always agree with caution. I'm not writing the wave off, but the signal for a strong storm isn't there right now. That can change as always, but all I see at the moment is a dry wave struggling in a hostile environment, with very limited model support.

The ensembles on all three major models are luke warm to put it mildy. There's a few outlier deterministic runs, but those are a given in any season. I'm of the mindset to always keep an eye on things incase of change (especially this season with the crazy warmth), but there's no need for worry with a signal this weak.

[Stratton23]

the 00z Euro tries to split the wave into 2 pieces, the northern side of the wave that develops goes up the east coast, and the southern side gets shoved into the gulf, eventually headed towards texas as a weak surface trough axis, kinda interesting

[jlauderdal]

Bizarre AIFS run which is somewhat giving credit to the GFS solution

https://i.imgur.com/FCUyDzy.gif

The same model that had the easterly solution similar to the eps and op and now its way west, could it be picking up on something, maybe. The inconsistency has increased except for the euro op and eps, stick with consistency until proven otherwise, could be consistently wrong but better to lean towards that than the solutions with so much variance. I half jokingly said days ago on this board, all interests from Brownsville to Cape Race should be on alert, that hasn't changed based on the current setup. Happy Hurricane Hunting!