Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS coming in a bit stronger (9mb lower) than the 12z so far, and only slightly left of the 12z.


And then hurricane

[NDG]

Get ready for another typical GFS happy hour run.

[IcyTundra]

ULAC centered over the TC on the 18Z GFS. It might take a while for an inner core to develop but if one does conditions look very favorable in the Gulf.

[DunedinDave]

Seems like the GFS might be moving away from the stall out option along the west coast. Definitely a west shift.

[ThunderForce]

At this rate, if the GFS is right, they're going to have to start issuing tropical storm or hurricane watches in just a few days to the Gulf coast.

[Category5Kaiju]

A slow moving system or one that even stalls? Better be on the lookout.

[tolakram]

Invest soon IMO, usually I post the first model roundup seconds before an invest and end up moving it to the model thread

120h, 5 days. Very close agreement by all the global models IMO. If you disagree because of intensity then you're doing it wrong.









and the NAVGEM for old times sake

[BobHarlem]

Loops back into the Gulf and still crawling.

[IcyTundra]

At this rate, if the GFS is right, they're going to have to start issuing tropical storm or hurricane watches in just a few days to the Gulf coast.

If the GFS is correct then they would begin to issue watches Friday or Saturday. There might not be a TC at that point though so they might have to begin issuing advisories for a PTC (potential tropical cyclone).

[Teban54]

Seems like the GFS might be moving away from the stall out option along the west coast.

You mean replacing that with a stall along the Panhandle instead?

[Stratton23]

A lot will depend on how fast the heat ridge builds in to stop this system and how strong it is, the slower it is, the more likely it make a turn towards maybe re exiting off NE florida and move up the se coast, the quicker that ridge builds over the system and if its stronger, I could see a stall and then getting pushed west, maybe into louisiana depending on the strength of the high, this is a very complex steering pattern shaping up

[IcyTundra]

I'm in SW FL, and experienced the full fury of Ian in '22.

Sorry, but I'll take 24" of rain over ANY Cat hurricane. Every day of the week.

You don't want much more than that trust me. It rained 55 inches at my house during Harvey.

I hear ya! But we live in a pretty high area. There was a lot of rain (along with 137 mph for 6 hours!), and we did have flooding in our streets, but it drained pretty quickly, so not really a danger of flooding. Even with 30, 40 or so inches of rain, I think I'd rather face that then the damage Ian did to our home, our neighborhood, neighbors who left and never came back, the few who had so much stress they suffered heart attacks, etc.

Wind, NOT RAIN will hurt us much worse, but I respect your opinion and I'm really sorry for any damage 55" did to your place.


P.S. Hurricanes suck!

I fortunately have never experienced major hurricane winds. I would definently take 24 inches of rain over a major.

[BobHarlem]

18z is Torturing the Panhandle this time. Hurricane straddling both sides of the coast for 4 days straight.

[Keldeo1997]

We will have a big problem if models start stalling it in the middle of the gulf and not inland. That raises the ceiling significantly

[ThunderForce]

You don't want much more than that trust me. It rained 55 inches at my house during Harvey.

I hear ya! But we live in a pretty high area. There was a lot of rain (along with 137 mph for 6 hours!), and we did have flooding in our streets, but it drained pretty quickly, so not really a danger of flooding. Even with 30, 40 or so inches of rain, I think I'd rather face that then the damage Ian did to our home, our neighborhood, neighbors who left and never came back, the few who had so much stress they suffered heart attacks, etc.

Wind, NOT RAIN will hurt us much worse, but I respect your opinion and I'm really sorry for any damage 55" did to your place.


P.S. Hurricanes suck!

I fortunately have never experienced major hurricane winds. I would definently take 24 inches of rain over a major.

I went through Hurricane Michael and saw the immense destruction everywhere from the winds. I don't live on the coast but even then there were tons of destruction stretching quite far inland, and it wasn't even from the rain. Needless to say, I have no want to ever go through anything like that ever again. Traumatized with PTSD for life from that.

I think that's why I'm so freaked out by this storm. I do monitor hurricanes, but personally I kind of hate them because of the death and destruction they weave.

[Teban54]

We will have a big problem if models start stalling it in the middle of the gulf and not inland. That raises the ceiling significantly

Both could easily be problems.

Stalling inland: Major flooding to inhabited areas

Stalling in the Gulf: Potential for a significantly stronger storm

[IcyTundra]

I hear ya! But we live in a pretty high area. There was a lot of rain (along with 137 mph for 6 hours!), and we did have flooding in our streets, but it drained pretty quickly, so not really a danger of flooding. Even with 30, 40 or so inches of rain, I think I'd rather face that then the damage Ian did to our home, our neighborhood, neighbors who left and never came back, the few who had so much stress they suffered heart attacks, etc.

Wind, NOT RAIN will hurt us much worse, but I respect your opinion and I'm really sorry for any damage 55" did to your place.


P.S. Hurricanes suck!

I fortunately have never experienced major hurricane winds. I would definently take 24 inches of rain over a major.

I went through Hurricane Michael and saw the immense destruction everywhere from the winds. I live decently inland but even then there was tons of destruction, and it wasn't even from the rain. Needless to say, I have no want to ever go through anything like that ever again. Traumatized with PTSD for life from that.

I think that's why I'm so freaked out by this storm. I do monitor hurricanes, but personally I kind of hate them because of the death and destruction they weave.

Michael was terrible I don't think anybody expecting to rapidly intensify to a cat 5.

[tolakram]

Both the Euro and the GFS are projecting some kind of stall or backtracking. Total rainfall model projections

[AtlanticWind]

I would think we are getting close to invest tag
Maybe tonight?

[Keldeo1997]

Yea the loop current is in the Eastern gulf. Can't imagine what would happen if it stalled over that...