2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[N2FSU]

6z GFS






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[Ubuntwo]

There is a consistent cluster of GFS and Euro ensemble members showing development in the Caribbean in the two week range.

[jlauderdal]

There is a consistent cluster of GFS and Euro ensemble members showing development in the Caribbean in the two week range.

End of next week and these waves will find a better setup, its going to have to get real busy for those big seasonal forecasts to hit, we are out to the second week of august. It can change fast.

[skyline385]

AIFS just loves this wave approaching the Caribbean even though other models barely have any support

[Teban54]

AIFS just loves this wave approaching the Caribbean even though other models barely have any support

https://i.imgur.com/FCUyDzy.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Vfoh4Cf.gif

Danny Morris just mentioned this wave in a Twitter thread. He said that in addition to AIFS, the Australian, Korean and UK models also show development due to the wave interacting more with the monsoon trough:

(Not all tweets posted here, click for full thread)

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1818461467403829253



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1818461472936067581



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1818461481194717615

[Steve]

I don't usually pay attention to the CFSv2 MJO forecast, so I don't know its skill level. But this is certainly what you (don't) want to see if you are looking for development. It is similar to the BOMM which is the Australian bias-corrected from Sunday (should update later today or tomorrow to see if it's still similar.





If these are right, which we don't know if they will be, you could reasonably expect 2-3 systems in the western basin between now and August 20th.

[PavelGaborik10]

Sure looking like a fat L to the Euro, based on the graph the EGOM is favored over the east coast now by the NHC.

[chaser1]

Sure looking like a fat L to the Euro, based on the graph the EGOM is favored over the east coast now by the NHC.

It's a game of inches. If (or had) this disturbance were to begin to consolidate and develop vertically, we'd quite possibly see development and track between the W Bahamas and Florida. The key question remains - where's Waldo (er, Debby that is).

[Stormlover70]

Looks like the western gulf is safe from this one.

[PavelGaborik10]

Sure looking like a fat L to the Euro, based on the graph the EGOM is favored over the east coast now by the NHC.

It's a game of inches. If (or had) this disturbance were to begin to consolidate and develop vertically, we'd quite possibly see development and track between the W Bahamas and Florida. The key question remains - where's Waldo (er, Debby that is).

Sure, but the game of inches has drastic repercussions.

It's never a good look to go from E of Nova Scotia to the GOM in a single run, it's simply been a trainwreck for the Euro.

Props to the GFS.

[otowntiger]

What is interesting to me looking at the GFS long range, out to 16 days (I know la la land!) it’s showing zilch in the way of any spin ups, low pressure areas or anything. I’m surprised because this is supposed to be an extremely busy season and it’s August. I know the infamous and proverbial switch doesn’t flip until 8/20 but it just seems odd to me that nothing is showing up anywhere in the entire basin for the first half of August. Not a complaint or ‘season cancel’ post at all, just a curious thing I’m seeing. I’m sure as soon as I hit submit there will be something show up, or I’m surely missing something or not looking at the right things. Obviously I’m no expert, and know way less than most who post here do.

[Category5Kaiju]

What is interesting to me looking at the GFS long range, out to 16 days (I know la la land!) it’s showing zilch in the way of any spin ups, low pressure areas or anything. I’m surprised because this is supposed to be an extremely busy season and it’s August. I know the infamous and proverbial switch doesn’t flip until 8/20 but it just seems odd to me that nothing is showing up anywhere in the entire basin for the first half of August. Not a complaint or ‘season cancel’ post at all, just a curious thing I’m seeing. I’m sure as soon as I hit submit there will be something show up, or I’m surely missing something or not looking at the right things. Obviously I’m no expert, and know way less than most who post here do.

Keep in mind that merely 5-6 days ago, the GFS showed absolutely nothing throughout the next 16 days too.

Look how that eventually turned out

[toad strangler]

What is interesting to me looking at the GFS long range, out to 16 days (I know la la land!) it’s showing zilch in the way of any spin ups, low pressure areas or anything. I’m surprised because this is supposed to be an extremely busy season and it’s August. I know the infamous and proverbial switch doesn’t flip until 8/20 but it just seems odd to me that nothing is showing up anywhere in the entire basin for the first half of August. Not a complaint or ‘season cancel’ post at all, just a curious thing I’m seeing. I’m sure as soon as I hit submit there will be something show up, or I’m surely missing something or not looking at the right things. Obviously I’m no expert, and know way less than most who post here do.

Keep in mind that merely 5-6 days ago, the GFS showed absolutely nothing throughout the next 16 days too.

Look how that eventually turned out

Globals just don't pick up on genesis so far out on many occasions. I wouldn't read ANYTHING into a barren 384 hour GFS run.

[aspen]

What is interesting to me looking at the GFS long range, out to 16 days (I know la la land!) it’s showing zilch in the way of any spin ups, low pressure areas or anything. I’m surprised because this is supposed to be an extremely busy season and it’s August. I know the infamous and proverbial switch doesn’t flip until 8/20 but it just seems odd to me that nothing is showing up anywhere in the entire basin for the first half of August. Not a complaint or ‘season cancel’ post at all, just a curious thing I’m seeing. I’m sure as soon as I hit submit there will be something show up, or I’m surely missing something or not looking at the right things. Obviously I’m no expert, and know way less than most who post here do.

Keep in mind that merely 5-6 days ago, the GFS showed absolutely nothing throughout the next 16 days too.

Look how that eventually turned out

Globals just don't pick up on genesis so far out on many occasions. I wouldn't read ANYTHING into a barren 384 hour GFS run.

The GFS did have that streak in Oct-Nov 2020 of picking up the potential development of Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota up to 2 weeks out, before any of the other globals caught on, but aside from that it hasn’t been great about sniffing things out in the 10+ day range. I think the Euro has had better luck in recent years (ex: Beryl).

[cheezyWXguy]

Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange

10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange

10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.

In the models thread that’s been dead for a month? I’m not saying there’s any weight to this run, but it’s more than we’ve seen for a while lol. The posts above mine were talking about how the gfs doesn’t even have phantoms on it. Now it does.

[weeniepatrol]

Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange

10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.

In the models thread that’s been dead for a month? I’m not saying there’s any weight to this run, but it’s more than we’ve seen for a while lol. The posts above mine were talking about how the gfs doesn’t even have phantoms on it. Now it does.

Yes; the sleeping giant is awakening.

[aspen]

The GFS’s mid-range Gulf hurricane is back on the 12z run. I think I can see the precursor wave on the 500mb vorticity plot, but it’s a faint, strung-out signature. The hurricane generates from a northern portion of the vorticity. I think this system is being influenced by the GFS’s phantom South America vorticity, so I’d wait to see if the Euro or CMC start picking this up in a few days.

I’m not sure if this is the same system the Korean model was picking up on a few days ago.

[BobHarlem]