Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Huh? Are tropical waves really less likely to strengthen if they stall for a time? I haven't heard this before.
This is related to the current tropical wave that's being monitored in this thread.

 https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1818763674569289753

Yeah this is objectively false. Hurricane Sally in 2020 comes to mind.

[Ubuntwo]

Huh? Are tropical waves really less likely to strengthen if they stall for a time? I haven't heard this before.
This is related to the current tropical wave that's being monitored in this thread.

 https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1818763674569289753

It sounds like they're confused about OHC, which is only really an issue for systems that are already intense. Current Gulf OHC would allow intensification up to and beyond hurricane for a stalled system no problem.

[NDG]

18Z GEFS through 126 hours. Almost all members that show development are in the Gulf with a spread from Louisiana to the West Coast of Florida.

https://i.ibb.co/NVSbX8R/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh36-126.gif

Andy Hazelton now doesn't have an excuse not to go back to the GFS solution after initially not showing development about the GEFS not supporting the operational runs the last couple of days.

[NDG]

18z Euro slightly further south & west than previous 12z run.
Its ensembles I am sure will continue shifting west, at least slightly.

[hipshot]

18z Euro slightly further south & west than previous 12z run.
Its ensembles I am sure will continue shifting west, at least slightly.

https://i.imgur.com/ZaZk3Fh.gif

You can see from that depiction that the ridge to the east and north of Florida isn't letting anything
go east of Florida, at least at this point in time and will most likely shove this wave/disturbance through
the Florida straits and into the GOM, how far west is a different question.

[NDG]

0z sounding in San Juan shows a fairly moist atmosphere from the ground to the upper levels.

[chaser1]

Looks like we can finally remove "dry air" from the development mitigating factors list.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's getting close to the time to make this an invest

[LarryWx]

18z Euro slightly further south & west than previous 12z run.
Its ensembles I am sure will continue shifting west, at least slightly.

https://i.imgur.com/ZaZk3Fh.gif

Confirmed. Big shift west of mean track on the new (18Z) Euro ens with the vast majority in the E half of the GOM with almost all of those pretty weak.

[chaser1]

You've gotta admit, the fact that this event could easily result in anything from a Cat 3 hurricane to a dissipating tropical wave is rather fascinating.

[floridasun]

While there is often considerable commentary on social media
platforms, it`s important to obtain information from reputable media
and National Weather Service sources. Deterministic model solutions
will vary widely from run to run and should be taken with a grain of
salt. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis for overall pattern
recognition is preferred and should be more consistent as we
progress forward in time. this what nws say here in miami dont nut all models runs doing what soical media saying

[FLLurker32]

18z Euro slightly further south & west than previous 12z run.
Its ensembles I am sure will continue shifting west, at least slightly.

https://i.imgur.com/ZaZk3Fh.gif

Confirmed. Big shift west of mean track on the new (18Z) Euro ens with the vast majority in the E half of the GOM with almost all of those pretty weak.

I was out enjoying the gulf waters off Indian Rocks beach just last week. Absolute bath water. I knew it would be but it was still strange to feel it that warm all the way down to my toes. It won’t need long in the Eastern gulf to bulk up like Popeye.

[wzrgirl1]

While there is often considerable commentary on social media
platforms, it`s important to obtain information from reputable media
and National Weather Service sources. Deterministic model solutions
will vary widely from run to run and should be taken with a grain of
salt. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis for overall pattern
recognition is preferred and should be more consistent as we
progress forward in time. this what nws say here in miami dont nut all models runs doing what soical media saying

Not only that but until there is a COC, I expect shifts in both directions. Just gassed the car up and picked up a few things at Wal-Mart. Now I can just chill and watch future Debby evolve.

[floridasun]

While there is often considerable commentary on social media
platforms, it`s important to obtain information from reputable media
and National Weather Service sources. Deterministic model solutions
will vary widely from run to run and should be taken with a grain of
salt. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis for overall pattern
recognition is preferred and should be more consistent as we
progress forward in time. this what nws say here in miami dont nut all models runs doing what soical media saying

Not only that but until there is a COC, I expect shifts in both directions. Just gassed the car up and picked up a few things at Wal-Mart. Now I can just chill and watch future Debby evolve.

i waiting see low form i ready take action soon as see that near td or ts were it going here in miami fl

[NDG]

You've gotta admit, the fact that this event could easily result in anything from a Cat 3 hurricane to a dissipating tropical wave is rather fascinating.

I doubt it will be anything but a dissipating TW when it gets into the GOM with high moisture, very warm SSTs and shear under 10 knots.
I am sure hurricane models will go nuts when they start running them with this system, but it will probably not be until at least Friday that an invest is declared, once it clears Hispaniola and eastern Cuban, IMO.

[Ubuntwo]

EPS 3-run trend is telling:

[Hurricaneman]

We have a very similar setup to such systems as

1985 Elena
2008 Fay
And even that tropical low that flooded out Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana a few years ago

So we could have a cat 3 in the GOM like Elena that zigzags or even a Fay like system or even nothing but a rainmaker but even a rainmaker can be devastating so stay tuned

[Category5Kaiju]

We have a very similar setup to such systems as

1985 Elena
2008 Fay
And even that tropical low that flooded out Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana a few years ago

So we could have a cat 3 in the GOM like Elena that zigzags or even a Fay like system or even nothing but a rainmaker but even a rainmaker can be devastating so stay tuned

Also add in Hilda from 1964. Extremely slow moving over the Gulf, strengthens while at it, and then eventually makes landfall

[Tailgater33]

We have a very similar setup to such systems as

1985 Elena
2008 Fay
And even that tropical low that flooded out Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana a few years ago

So we could have a cat 3 in the GOM like Elena that zigzags or even a Fay like system or even nothing but a rainmaker but even a rainmaker can be devastating so stay tuned

I’ve been through my fair share of tropical systems here in southeastern Louisiana but by far the worst was a no name tropical low that drifted west from the panhandle of Fla. in 2016. 40 inches of rain upstream will do that.

[SFLcane]

Some kind of mid level circulation is developing north of PR.