Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[jaxfladude]

Not really liking the models run(s) today, as it concerns the greater NorthEast Florida.....

[Stormlover70]

Watching this closely in western florida. Pasco County

[IcyTundra]

0Z ICON landfall near Cedar Key as a TS and recurves scraping the GA,SC, and NC coastlines. Begins to RI after moving off the NC coast.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS coming in a bit stronger, same position here as 18z but stronger in 0z than 18z



0z CMC still coming in, but it too is noticeably stronger than 12z and also slightly to the right of 12z at first, then drifts a good deal west of 12z by 90 hours, but much weaker than the GFS (But quite a bit stronger than the 12z CMC). Landfall Mexico Beach, does not stall.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS stalling offshore here


Drifting further south, getting into Cat 3 territory:





Still hanging out in the Gulf on Thursday


Into Friday:

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS stalling off shore Port St Joe/ Mexico Beach area.

[MarioProtVI]

Nightmare scenario on 00z GFS - bombs it down to 970 then stalls for a full day near Mexico Beach/Panama City

Edit; now it’s moving south and dropped down to 969. Wtaf.

[IcyTundra]

Ridge to the west is stronger this run. That northerly flow is pushing down on it forcing it to stall and eventually move south.

[MarioProtVI]

Ridge to the west is stronger this run. That northerly flow is pushing down on it forcing it to stall and eventually move south.

Also because it misses the trough because it’s still too far south to feel it

[Keldeo1997]

Like I mentioned earlier, that GFS run is exactly the scenario I'm concerned about. A RI Major stalling in the Gulf rasing the ceiling significantly. OHC is very high in that area with the loop current close by. Upwelling would not be a problem

[WaveBreaking]

Actual insanity.

[IcyTundra]

Surely NHC tags this as an invest soon. GFS shows a TS developing in 72 hours.

[chaser1]

Watching this closely in western florida. Pasco County

Welcome to the party

[weeniepatrol]

0z GFS is the worst thing I've ever seen

[BobHarlem]

Landfall near Bay St. Louis, MS Friday after hanging out in the Gulf 4 days straight. This one is Josh Morgerman's run.

[IcyTundra]

That might have been the most insane model run I have ever seen.

[Category5Kaiju]

Like I mentioned earlier, that GFS run is exactly the scenario I'm concerned about. A RI Major stalling in the Gulf rasing the ceiling significantly. OHC is very high in that area with the loop current close by. Upwelling would not be a problem

If it sits at just the right spot, I have no doubts it'll get supercharged. Just remember that the Loop Current still holds pretty strong and charged storms like Katrina and Ida

[Keldeo1997]

GFS makes landfall around Bay St louis as a CAT 3.

[ThunderForce]

I think this 00z GFS run is making me feel ill...

[weeniepatrol]

Incredible how quickly this has gone from safe Carolinas recurve to extremely ominous Gulf storm during a COL