Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS Run animation

[Kingarabian]

0z GFS coming in a bit stronger, same position here as 18z but stronger in 0z than 18z
https://i.imgur.com/ApDkNjc.png
https://i.imgur.com/aZ10nt3.png

0z CMC still coming in, but it too is noticeably stronger than 12z and also slightly to the right of 12z at first, then drifts a good deal west of 12z by 90 hours, but much weaker than the GFS (But quite a bit stronger than the 12z CMC). Landfall Mexico Beach, does not stall.
https://i.imgur.com/EvnpHeC.png

Concerning trend on the CMC. Intensity wise it's been bad since the update around 2019.

[Stratton23]

Western US ridge is trending stronger, eventually makes landfall near eastern louisiana, forecasting where it goes will be a nightmare once its stalls, definitely one of the more complex steering pattern setups ive seen since harvey

[BobHarlem]

Upward motion and moisture still increasing. I bet we get the invest tomorrow (or technically later today).

[Category5Kaiju]

Incredible how quickly this has gone from safe Carolinas recurve to extremely ominous Gulf storm during a COL

I mean, it's 2024 after all . All three of our named storms so far were bona fide tropical, non-fish storms. Looks like the pattern will continue unfortunately.

[chaser1]

Well, IF the GFS has its way we'll be welcoming Debby to the "majors". That would give the ladies (Debby & Beryl) an early 2-0 lead (reaching Cat 3+). So much for our bear watching nap!

[skyline385]

Also, in case anyone was wondering why the GFS is not upwelling much, an eddy just broke off from the loop current and it tracks pretty close (if not over) to it.

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, IF the GFS has its way we'll be welcoming Debby to the "majors". That would give the ladies (Debby & Beryl) an early 2-0 lead (reaching Cat 3+). So much for our bear watching nap!

2 impactful majors before August 20 too. This season is unlike many of the recent years we've tracked.

[skyline385]

Does anyone here remember when the GoM had such nuclear ULs in recent times? I can't remember any such instance from the past few years. You can see the dual outflow channels on Sim IR as well.

[Woofde]

Does anyone here remember when the GoM had such nuclear ULs in recent times? I can't remember any such instance from the past few years. You can see the dual outflow channels on Sim IR as well.

2020 had some pretty mean upper level setups in the Gulf and WCar. Laura comes to mind, iirc she had quite a juicy anticyclone.

[skyline385]

Does anyone here remember when the GoM had such nuclear ULs in recent times? I can't remember any such instance from the past few years. You can see the dual outflow channels on Sim IR as well.

https://i.imgur.com/sSWWW6N.gif

https://i.imgur.com/AQziCGC.gif

2020 had some pretty mean upper level setups in the Gulf and WCar. Laura comes to mind, iirc she had quite a juicy anticyclone.

Laura never had an equatorial outflow channel combined with a poleward one in the GoM. As far as I remember, it was a standard ULAC in the GoM which we see almost every year from RI'ing GoM systems. In this case however, look at how the equatorial outflow in the Sim IR is reaching all the way past Cuba from the northern GoM, that is the setup I am talking about.

[Stratton23]

Some of the more stronger members of the 00z GEFS, stall off the florida panhandle before getting shoved west toward louisiana and texas, mainly due to a stronger western US ridge, very interesting

[Stratton23]

00z GEPS also suggests this system could get shoved toward the western gulf after a 4-5 day stall near florida

[IcyTundra]

0Z UKMET into the Mississippi coast.

[Stratton23]

00z Euro stalls just off florida panhandle, then does a loop, the. goes south before starting to make a due west movement due to to high rebuilding off the se us coast lol

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow I'm shocked that this isn't an invest yet, being that it's only a few days away from "POTENTIAL" landfall.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, IF the GFS has its way we'll be welcoming Debby to the "majors". That would give the ladies (Debby & Beryl) an early 2-0 lead (reaching Cat 3+). So much for our bear watching nap!

2 impactful majors before August 20 too. This season is unlike many of the recent years we've tracked.

I wouldn't put much faith in this being a major based on GFS. GFS does this all the time.

[kevin]

00z GFS is really trying to make this a nightmare season.

[Woofde]

Does anyone here remember when the GoM had such nuclear ULs in recent times? I can't remember any such instance from the past few years. You can see the dual outflow channels on Sim IR as well.

https://i.imgur.com/sSWWW6N.gif

https://i.imgur.com/AQziCGC.gif

2020 had some pretty mean upper level setups in the Gulf and WCar. Laura comes to mind, iirc she had quite a juicy anticyclone.

Laura never had an equatorial outflow channel combined with a poleward one in the GoM. As far as I remember, it was a standard ULAC in the GoM which we see almost every year from RI'ing GoM systems. In this case however, look at how the equatorial outflow in the Sim IR is reaching all the way past Cuba from the northern GoM, that is the setup I am talking about.

She primarily had outflow to the south through most of her journey, but a large reason for the rapid intensification before landfall was the setup of the second outflow channel over the US connecting to a trough. You can see it happen in the broad journey archive. Her 85 mph increase in 24 hours was not your average run of the mill upper level setup.

The way Laura bombed out is an analog for why if that wave was to setup dual outflow like that GFS run depicts, and also have access to the bath water, well... thats a very bad hypothetical. Hopefully it is indeed just an outlier.

https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event ... ura/#key-2

[Category5Kaiju]

2020 had some pretty mean upper level setups in the Gulf and WCar. Laura comes to mind, iirc she had quite a juicy anticyclone.

Laura never had an equatorial outflow channel combined with a poleward one in the GoM. As far as I remember, it was a standard ULAC in the GoM which we see almost every year from RI'ing GoM systems. In this case however, look at how the equatorial outflow in the Sim IR is reaching all the way past Cuba from the northern GoM, that is the setup I am talking about.

She primarily had outflow to the south through most of her journey, but a large reason for the rapid intensification before landfall was the setup of the second outflow channel over the US connecting to a trough. You can see it happen in the broad journey archive. Her 85 mph increase in 24 hours was not your average run of the mill upper level setup.

The way Laura bombed out is an analog for why if that wave was to setup dual outflow like that GFS run depicts, and also have access to the bath water, well... thats a very bad hypothetical. Hopefully it is indeed just an outlier.

https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event ... ura/#key-2

The latter is precisely what you need to get a solid Category 5 GoM hurricane like Rita or Katrina. Laura just fell short