Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow I'm shocked that this isn't an invest yet, being that it's only a few days away from "POTENTIAL" landfall.

Honestly, it is Thursday, and this storm could hit something as soon as Monday.

[ElectricStorm]

0z Euro also stalls in the Gulf but keeps it very weak. I think if this does end up stalling in the gulf, it would probably be stronger than what the Euro has.

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS: another further W shift with almost all in Gulf; most of these landfall NE Gulf but some go to NW Gulf

[REDHurricane]

Yeah this is exactly why I was rooting for the Euro's forecast even though it initially showed the stronger solution compared to the other models -- any system that enters the Gulf right now is a bad situation waiting to happen. Agreed with everyone else that this should already be an invest and (hopefully) will be one at the next update, if you look really close at the last few frames of the IR satellite loop you can see energy bursting counterclockwise out of the convective blob over Puerto Rico that smells to me a bit like the beginnings of tropical cyclogenesis

[N2FSU]

Watching from Tallahassee and not liking ANY of what I’m seeing.

[Hurricane2022]

The models have been causing a astronomically big suspense in this system for a while now. This is annoying and tedious for me, even though I'm thousands of kilometers away from this system. I think people in the Eastern Gulf, especially the anxious people in that region, must be on the verge of a heart attack.

[Blown Away]

Watching from Tallahassee and not liking ANY of what I’m seeing.

Clearly if this AOI lifts off the GA islands earlier than W Cuba it will likely strengthen and go N like 06z GFS is showing… Does appear this AOI is a smidge farther N and skirts N coast of PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba, might be the difference…

[DunedinDave]

That’s a major change from GFS at 06z. Much further east and faster and weaker z No stall out. Almost identical to ICON model with landfall in big bend.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS stronger and slight E Shift. SW/W Coast of FL at play. Here's the last 4 GFS run trend. Ugly for Tampa area.

[chris_fit]

That’s a major change from GFS at 06z. Much further east and faster and weaker z No stall out. Almost identical to ICON model with landfall in big bend.

Still stalls, just later in the forecast period.... Maybe coming back for round 2?

[Nimbus]

Watching from Tallahassee and not liking ANY of what I’m seeing.

Clearly if this AOI lifts off the GA islands earlier than W Cuba it will likely strengthen and go N like 06z GFS is showing… Does appear this AOI is a smidge farther N and skirts N coast of PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba, might be the difference…

UKMET initializes the closed low just off the north shore of Cuba in the same location as GFS.
00Z GFS has a Harvey scenario with surface pressures dropping into the 950's before flooding NOLA and most of the north gulf coast. Tallahassee has a lot of pine forest that would be destroyed. Rain estimates in feet that soften the ground and the shallow pine roots are then anchored in mud. Even tropical storm force winds will decimate a forest.

06Z GFS decimates the north caostal Florida forests with a tropical storm winds guess that would be easier on the roofs though.

It would be tempting to call an invest now with two models in agreement but...

[chris_fit]

Sure does come back for round 2. Looks like a Cat 2/3 into Jax? Wow, almost unheard of!

[Frank P]

Looks like some broad rotation is showing up on the IR loops just above Haita moving west...


image url

[toad strangler]

06Z GFS I'll give you a hint "oranges"

Major hurricane along Gulf Coast impacting Florida panhandle that drifts just offshore and slowly moves west toward NO. Yikes! But 7 to 10 days out so fantasy at this point.

There have been several models doing a long term stall in various places. The Euro was one in earlier runs in SC. Wild model output the past few days. I guess that should be expected when there is no coherent system to hone in on. I expect more of it

IRT the 6z GFS ....

[USTropics]

Watching from Tallahassee and not liking ANY of what I’m seeing.

Clearly if this AOI lifts off the GA islands earlier than W Cuba it will likely strengthen and go N like 06z GFS is showing… Does appear this AOI is a smidge farther N and skirts N coast of PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba, might be the difference…

This is the key point, where the mid-level vorticity ends up consolidating in the next 24-48 hours is critical to long term track implications. The 06z run of the GFS model had the mid-level circulation riding the northern coast of Cuba in 48 hours (green circle), and combine this with a deeper trough (dashed blue) over the southeastern United States that erodes the nose of the ridge (pink) to the east of Florida, this allows the system to feel the effects/flow of the trough (blue arrow) and move to the northeast:


Compare this exact time frame to the 00z GFS run, and the mid-level circulation is riding the southern coast of Cuba and the trough is not quite as amplified (the ridge extends further west over Florida). The system remains embedded in the low-level flow for a longer period of time and moves more west before turning north. The trough lifts out before the system can fully turn northeast, and steering currents collapse thereafter:


Both are very realistic scenarios, we'll have to see how the evolution transpires today with the vorticity. These CIMSS vorticity products below will be excellent tools (given land interaction and topography, follow the mid and upper-level vorticity for now). One thing I've already noticed over the last ~8 hours is building upper-level vorticity to the south of Puerto Rico; the longer this persists it could tug on the mid-level circulation:

Upper-level vorticity (500mb)

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=

Mid-level vorticity (700mb)

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor3&zoom=&time=

[N2FSU]

I thought the 0z GFS was crazy.
6z says hold my beer!




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[BobHarlem]

Rain estimates from the 6z GFS:

[LCfromFL]

Sure does come back for round 2. Looks like a Cat 2/3 into Jax? Wow, almost unheard of!

https://i.imgur.com/eKgDGsH.gif

Yikes! This would be devastating for us here in NE FL. My home flooded with TS Fay in 2008 and Hurricane Irma in 2017.

[BobHarlem]

Watches and Warnings are going to be fun since wouldn't it make sense to start calling them later tomorrow? I don't envy the NHC at all on this forecast and the likely PTC (and fully general) confusion from it.

I'm sure they'd like to call an invest on it ASAP, but getting that tagged in the wrong spot won't help much, especially with a potential col blocker pattern coming up here.

[LCfromFL]

Rain estimates from the 6z GFS:

https://i.imgur.com/cVn8ohk.png

Egads! If this pans out, we'll have Thomas Creek (which is nearly 1/4 mile away from us) inside our home (again). When we flood, it's a s-l-o-w rise of water due to ditches draining back to the Creek - so we should have time to move everything upstairs...but that is such a PIA and not how I want to spend my weekend.