ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2024080112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 705W, 20, 1013, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972024.dat

[aspen]

This is gonna be an interesting (or very annoying) system to track with the likely collapse of steering currents near Florida. I’d say anything from a weak TD to a Cat 2 hurricane is on the table.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

[BobHarlem]

[3090]

Initial intensity forecast CAT 2, tops.

[NDG]

Wow,they pulled the trigger with 97L quicker than I thought. Can't wait to see what the hurricane models show, some will go crazy high with conditions so favorable over the GOM.

[Michele B]

https://i.imgur.com/4ZhO4r5.gif

So what're we watching?

The orange X shows the center being over DR. Surely that thing would get shredded.

There's another disturbance just south of PR, which is what I thought was 97.

Then there's an interesting cluster of thunderstorms NNW of DR, which has always looked like it had potential to me.


Sooo, what're we watching? Which one is Invest 97L?

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/4ZhO4r5.gif

So what're we watching?

The orange X shows the center being over DR. Surely that thing would get shredded.

There's another disturbance just south of PR, which is what I thought was 97.

Then there's an interesting cluster of thunderstorms NNW of DR, which has always looked like it had potential to me.


Sooo, what're we watching? Which one is Invest 97L?

This is the best track of 97L.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is going to be extremely interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days. The Greater Antilles throw a big X factor in the prognosis of what may come. Conventional wisdom says that anything going over the big islands gets shredded. However, with a system that has yet to consolidate, there is nothing really to shred. The big islands may in fact serve to help everything consolidate. The big question is where does that happen? Then from there, where does this go and how much potential it has? I dare say this may be one of the most interesting developing systems that we have seen in quite some time. I can foresee many case studies and dissertations written about this system for years to come.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/bnorcross/status/1819001124868730902

[wxman57]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

[Ubuntwo]

https://i.imgur.com/4ZhO4r5.gif

So what're we watching?

The orange X shows the center being over DR. Surely that thing would get shredded.

There's another disturbance just south of PR, which is what I thought was 97.

Then there's an interesting cluster of thunderstorms NNW of DR, which has always looked like it had potential to me.


Sooo, what're we watching? Which one is Invest 97L?

97 is still a tropical wave, and as such doesn’t have a ‘center’ yet. It’s an axis oriented roughly north-northwest to south-southeast, cutting through Hispaniola. Across this elongated axis we have lower pressures and moisture spawning a scattered area of convection. There are areas of slightly stronger spin depending on which slice of the atmosphere you’re looking at. Closer to the surface, spin is strongest at the east end of DR. Higher up, we’ve got more spin due south of the Mona Passage. These are all part of our disturbance 97L.

Don’t read too much into the X position - the NHC has to put a center somewhere, even if there isn’t one. It’s their best approximation of where the lowest pressure is. The mountains of Hispaniola will mix this all up by generating mesovortices and convection while potentially shredding preexisting vortices. So, to answer your question, all of this is 97L. We have yet to see where it will all wrap up - my guess is we’ll know a lot better after the island passage.

[jlauderdal]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

Where do you have it at 120H?

[wxman57]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

Where do you have it at 120H?

Low confidence, but SE Georgia.

[toad strangler]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

Where do you have it at 120H?

Low confidence, but SE Georgia.

What do you make of the loop / stall scenarios put forth by multiple models in the past 24 hours? Is that part of your low confidence?

[toad strangler]

Courtesy of Michael Lowry

[SFLcane]

Where do you have it at 120H?

Low confidence, but SE Georgia.

What do you make of the loop / stall scenarios put forth by multiple models in the past 24 hours? Is that part of your low confidence?

Bams and ships have this doing a loop south of fort myers for now.

[MarioProtVI]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

I don’t think NHC would start advisories that early. Probably not until Saturday when the 48hr chances are near 70%. Right now it’s only at 20/60 and likely to be 70/90 by Saturday at some point.

[chaser1]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

I don’t think NHC would start advisories that early. Probably not until Saturday when the 48hr chances are near 70%. Right now it’s only at 20/60 and likely to be 70/90 by Saturday at some point.

Oh, no way do I think NHC waits till Saturday for PTC advisories. Not if there'll be concerns for tropical storm strength gusts in squalls well north of center that could potentially impact the Florida Straits or Keys. Ideally, they'd want to issue potential threats 48 hr's in advance of any conditions that would typically warrant a Watch or Warning. Granted, much rests on the system overall speed of forward motion and where consolidation ultimately occurs. I am less confident of any modeling with this invest than I might otherwise given this systems' broad area and land interaction. Model run initiation is going to be sketch until it begins to develop a core north or south of Cuba.