ATL: DEBBY - Models

[SFLcane]

[Stratton23]

The GEFS has some members making a big loop off the east coast of florida and then moving back west as a stronger storm toward Louisiana/ Texas, that ensemble run looks like a child with a box of crayons

[toad strangler]

The 12z Euro looks like it doesn't spend much time over open water in the GOM. ALmost straddling the W FL Coast and then into the peninsula of FL before finally popping out into the Atlantic over the Jacksonville / SE Ga area where is strengthens some and than reverses course and landfalls in SC.

[GlennOBX]

In the words of my people, "Ummm, what?"

https://i.postimg.cc/rpkXMBDm/nnn.png

[Stratton23]

The big take away from 12z models today, we simply dont know whats going to happen, very messy forecast ahead, stalled systems are a nightmare

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF, HMON, and HAFS are finally running.

[aspen]

First HWRF run for 97L shows vorticity concentrating in the center of the wave axis, as opposed to the northern end where the most convection is. Center straddles the southern coast of Cuba where it seems to develop into a TD, then crosses Cuba into the eastern GoM as a broad but strengthening TS.

So it consolidates similar to how the 06z GFS showed (as pointed out in detail in Levi’s newest vid), but is slightly further south and therefore enters the Gulf a little further west than other recent model runs today.

EDIT: 12z HWRF is a lot slower, still only about halfway to the panhandle by 00z Mon and already a weak Cat 1. 12z CMC concentrates north of Cuba. 12z ICON concentrates closer to the HWRF.

[BobHarlem]

HAFS-A is completely lost, but HAFS-B shows something stalling off Destin/Miramar Beach.



Honestly I don't think the first run or two of the hurricane models are going to be worth much.

[IcyTundra]

12Z HMON: TS into the east end of Mobile Bay.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.postimg.cc/rpkXMBDm/nnn.png

Bruh, that one that curls along the peninsula and goes right over Miami

[SFLcane]

18z models...

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro Animation

[tropicwatch]

18z models...

https://i.postimg.cc/05VCvFtC/jj.jpg

Could you post a link to that kmz or kml file please.

[Stratton23]

Nimbus its all about timing, because that ridge is quickly expanding to to the east, IMO i think this will stall out in the gulf, but from there, who knows, could go north, east or west or even south again lol

[BobHarlem]

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

https://i.postimg.cc/rpkXMBDm/nnn.png

no way. who fed crack into that model

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

18z models...

https://i.postimg.cc/05VCvFtC/jj.jpg

The spaghetti's not looking good for Venice /Tampa/ Iveneress. I know we are still aways away but hold your breathe on intensity here

[Stormlover70]

18z models...

https://i.postimg.cc/05VCvFtC/jj.jpg

The spaghetti's not looking good for Venice /Tampa/ Iveneress. I know we are still aways away but hold your breathe on intensity here

watching closely here....

[Stratton23]

I dont trust the korean model, but that was one of the most willy wonka runs i have ever seen lol at least the 12z run

[skillz305]

https://i.imgur.com/eAybIbT.png

I definitely don’t like that central Florida noodle …