ATL: DEBBY - Models

[BobHarlem]

GEFS ensembles animated to follow the lows better in the squished spider look. Crazies run is the one that goes out to the Atlantic loops back and crosses Central Florida then into the Gulf and finally to Houston.

[Hurrilurker]

The 977 heading west towards Houston is a bit scary, but it's an outlier.

[DunedinDave]

18z models...

https://i.postimg.cc/05VCvFtC/jj.jpg

The spaghetti's not looking good for Venice /Tampa/ Iveneress. I know we are still aways away but hold your breathe on intensity here

I am more nervous about the amount of rainfall we are going to get from this. I don’t think it will be anything to worry about wind-wise, but the Tampa area could get crushed with rain if it slowly skirts along the west coast and then maybe even comes back in a loopity-loop.

[3090]

The 977 heading west towards Houston is a bit scary, but it's an outlier.

Very unlikely but it is one model run output. There are more aimed generally towards the AL/Miss/LA coast lines.

[Nimbus]

12Z HMON had the worst track, finds the keys to the M.G. and tracks over water all the way to NOLA.

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON landfall as a TS in the Big Bend of Florida. Stalls just off the coast of GA/SC.

[StPeteMike]

Hoping the intensity is correct, we saw how off they were with Beryl.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS coming in... looks like it makes landfall near Sarasota. Much further south and east of 12z.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS through 96 hours. Nearly 200 miles ENE of the 12Z run so far.


Begins to stall after day 4.

[DunedinDave]

18Z GFS through 96 hours. Nearly 200 miles ENE of the 12Z run so far.
https://i.ibb.co/R2yZW8q/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-96.gif

That’s better news for Tampa area. Seems to move in and out quick and is just mostly a rainmaker as opposed to stalling out along the coast. Hopefully it then moves out to sea.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS through 96 hours. Nearly 200 miles ENE of the 12Z run so far.
https://i.ibb.co/R2yZW8q/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-96.gif

That’s better news for Tampa area. Seems to move in and out quick and is just mostly a rainmaker as opposed to stalling out along the coast. Hopefully it then moves out to sea.

Let's hope models continue to trend this way. Lots of time for things to change still so we will keep wathcing.

[Stratton23]

The GFS is betting on the northern Lobe becoming dominant and going to the north of cuba, looking at live imagery, most of the deep convection is south of the islands, I think the southern lobe will take over, i have more of a southern track before clipping western cuba and then turning north towards the florida peninsula, I think the GFS is a little too far to the north

[BobHarlem]

After it meanders in the Atlantic for a few days it bends back west and landfalls near Wilmington, NC.



18z GEFS mean shifted right also.

[aspen]

GFS continues to trend toward a weak system crossing Florida and stalling out over the Gulf Stream near GA/SC as a hurricane. Kinda reminds me of Chris ‘18.

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS, has two camps, one group goes up the east coast and stalls off NC, the other camp ends up getting pushed back innto the gulf again

[otowntiger]

18z GFS coming in... looks like it makes landfall near Sarasota. Much further south and east of 12z.

Yes, but also much weaker and no stall. That would not be a terrible solution

[IcyTundra]

18z GFS coming in... looks like it makes landfall near Sarasota. Much further south and east of 12z.

Yes, but also much weaker and no stall. That would not be a terrible solution

It would be good for Florida not so much for NC.

[Stratton23]

yeah the GEFS still shows that their is plenty of uncertainty still, with a 2nd group of members getting pushed back into the gulf due to the bermuda high nosing in more, tough call

[SFLcane]

Hmm that’s pretty far south could certainly mean more flooding potentially for SFL.

[jlauderdal]

Hmm that’s pretty far south could certainly mean more flooding potentially for SFL.

Ian victms dont want to see anything like that in the area.