ATL: DEBBY - Models

[BobHarlem]

Hafs A and b:

A didn't get lost this time but both struggled with genesis.
HafsA loops and stalls near the Big Bend and never leaves north Florida for the rest of the run.




HafsB, faster, right of prior run. But stalls here for about 24 hours before moving slightly further north, but still in Florida (Just south of GA border) by hour 117 the drifts back closer to the Gulf/Big Bend by the end of the run on 0z Wed.

[BobHarlem]

18z hwrf/hmon
18z HMON: Landfall here, doesn't really slow down much. way right of 12z (Which was at Mobile, AL) the crawls slowly north along the AL/GA border. Where it basically stalls for the rest of the run (GA side of the AL/FL/GA border area near Bainbridge)



18z HWRF slightly right, not quite as strong as 12z. drifts into Southern Georgia after landfall.

[Woofde]

18z hwrf/hmon
18z HMON: Landfall here, doesn't really slow down much. way right of 12z (Which was at Mobile, AL) the crawls slowly north along the AL/GA border. Where it basically stalls for the rest of the run (GA side of the AL/FL/GA border area near Bainbridge)



18z HWRF slightly right, not quite as strong as 12z. drifts into Southern Georgia after landfall.

Notably both the HWRF and HMON both become hurricanes. Its a little early to read into the Hurricane models because theres no circulation yet. That said I've noticed throughout the years that storms without early support from those two tend to fail pretty hard. So it is a sign of potential IMO.

In theory we should look towards HAFS as they should outperform the older models, but we've seen them struggle with some storms (Beryl being the most recent example). I'm glad they still run the older models.

[wzrgirl1]

12Z HMON had the worst track, finds the keys to the M.G. and tracks over water all the way to NOLA.

MG?

[ColdFusion]

MG?

Mardi Gras

[ronjon]

Pretty good consistency among the 18z hurricane models through 84 hrs. ICON stayed consistent at 18z vs 12z. Euro has similar track as aforementioned models but continues to struggle with intensity with weak low. GFS track is now on the east side of most guidance. Watching this one closely on the west coast of FL.

[Gums]

Salute!

NHC talking bad news. Where are all the other models?

Hoping for a strong recurve into the low population big bend.

Gums sends...

[SFLcane]

[BobHarlem]

0z shows Right shift on most of the earlies compared to 18z

[Nimbus]

12Z HMON had the worst track, finds the keys to the M.G. and tracks over water all the way to NOLA.

MG?

The circulation is blowing south over Cuba and the lift is creating thunderstorms near Montego Bay.
The 12Z HMON initialized way far south and stayed south of Cuba.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1819178044013334740

[cycloneye]

Salute!

NHC talking bad news. Where are all the other models?

Hoping for a strong recurve into the low population big bend.

Gums sends...

Hi. Moved your post to the 97L models thread.Which models you are referring to?

[wzrgirl1]

https://i.postimg.cc/9Mj49fvK/IMG-9123.gif

Quite a shift east!!!

[ronjon]

https://i.postimg.cc/9Mj49fvK/IMG-9123.gif

Quite a shift east!!!

In addition to the east shift, now a much tighter clustering of tracks of the various models through 84 hrs. One exception the UKMET.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is a situation where I've seen the models struggle, hard. We have an open wave passing over the most mountainous regions of the Caribbean. All bets are off as to where the LLC truly forms. If the majority of the wave axis stays over Cuba and it doesn't become a TC until it reaches the Gulf, the ceiling is lower. If it can somehow establish a LLC north of Cuba, it'll run into Florida. If it can form one in the Caribbean just south of Cuba and follow the coastline, I think the situation will change dramatically.

[BobHarlem]

0z icon, ever so slightly left of the 18z icon and slightly stronger.



Exits into the Atlantic here then


rides offshore just along the coast near SC... much closer than 12z


Landfall at Oak Island, NC (Into Wilmington):


Then stalls it over Eastern North Carolina through the end of the model run


Later part of the model run is very left of the 12z, early part is only slightly left.

[IcyTundra]

0z icon, ever so slightly left of the 18z icon and slightly stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/jLkYOxt.png

Exits into the Atlantic here then
https://i.imgur.com/sdY2NlY.png

rides offshore just along the coast near SC... much closer than 12z
https://i.imgur.com/3vRFAJ2.png

Landfall at Oak Island, NC (Into Wilmington):
https://i.imgur.com/TGOhGgn.png

Then stalls it over Eastern North Carolina through the end of the model run
https://i.imgur.com/og9hkUk.png

Later part of the model run is very left of the 12z, early part is only slightly left.

Widespread area of rainfall over 12 inches on the ICON in NC and SC

[BobHarlem]

May be a bit early to say but 0z gfs is slightly left, clips St. Pete then slows a lot straddling the shoreline just north of St. Pete. At least for a frame or so. and then slowly moving through Florida toward St. Augustine.



exits near St. Augustine, south of 18z exit point


After that it gets a bit further east in the Atlantic than 18z, but still winds up pretty close to 18z point by 93 hours, and a hurricane then.

By here it's about 8 mb stronger than the 18z at the same point in time.


Solid cat 2 here (roughly 10mb stronger than 18z at same time)


By this point the 0z veers right of the 18z, and is much less likely to make landfall


And no landfall on 0z after Florida, out to sea it goes.

[BobHarlem]

0z CMC is fast, for this to verify it would need to start moving NW right now.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HWRF further east and weaker, has mid-strong TS. HMON has a strong TS, close to Cat 1 hurricane. HAFS-A and B both have a minimal hurricane before landfall as a TS.

Interestingly, all four have this making landfall as a weakening storm rather than a strengthening one.