2024 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is
expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and
thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96E is up for area south of CentralAmerica.

[cycloneye]

This is how EPAC looks.

[Teban54]

I have to say, this is really impressive for an EPAC season that started off as a historically inactive one. Really.



That said... If an MJO passage can do this to such an unfavorable EPAC, I'm scared to think what it would do in the Atlantic with record warm waters.

[Sciencerocks]

Went from one hell of a slow start to this. Pretty amazing.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC has recovered some but may slow down soon.

[cycloneye]

Here is the EPAC outbreak now with Fabio joining the party. Emilia and Fabio will be dancing around.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1820477020117283248

[toad strangler]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1820477020117283248

Two of them look like they already poofed.

[zzzh]

Daniel looks dead. Also I'm pretty sure 2018 also had 4 storms at once (though only lasted 6h): Hector, Ileana, John, Kristy.

[galaxy401]

Quantity over quality here. Impressive it spawned 4 storms but they are all keeping each other at bay. Emilia might get a little stronger but it most likely would have been stronger if it weren't for the nearby storms.

[Kingarabian]

Well looks like the EPAC is now back within climo. But agreed, definitely quantity over quality.

[IcyTundra]

GFS was suggesting we would get a major out of this period of activity for the EPAC.

[zzzh]

Well looks like the EPAC is now back within climo. But agreed, definitely quantity over quality.

Named storm only, all other metrics are way below average. If the NHC forecast is correct, EPAC ace will reach 15-16 units when Emilia dissipates, which makes 2024 the 6th least active since 1971 (currently it's the 5th least active)

[WeatherBoy2000]

Well looks like the EPAC is now back within climo. But agreed, definitely quantity over quality.

Still well below avg when it comes to ACE, however, it's no longer at a record low:

[Kingarabian]

Well looks like the EPAC is now back within climo. But agreed, definitely quantity over quality.

Named storm only, all other metrics are way below average. If the NHC forecast is correct, EPAC ace will reach 15-16 units when Emilia dissipates, which makes 2024 the 6th least active since 1971 (currently it's the 5th least active)

We're about to have 16 storms and 50 ACE at this point lol.

[cycloneye]

I think this outbreak EPAC is having now may be the best it will have for the rest of the season. It will be the NATL turn to shine.

[weeniepatrol]

Well.. hey at least the interaction between Fabio and Emilia is unique and fascinating. I don't recall the last time a Fujiwhara was so explicitly mentioned and emphasized by NHC.

[aspen]

Well looks like the EPAC is now back within climo. But agreed, definitely quantity over quality.

Named storm only, all other metrics are way below average. If the NHC forecast is correct, EPAC ace will reach 15-16 units when Emilia dissipates, which makes 2024 the 6th least active since 1971 (currently it's the 5th least active)

We're about to have 16 storms and 50 ACE at this point lol.

The EPac’s 2013.

[Teban54]

I don't recall the last time a Fujiwhara was so explicitly mentioned and emphasized by NHC.

Philippe and Rina in the Atlantic last year? Though I can't recall if Fujiwhara was explicitly mentioned in the advisories.