BobHarlem wrote:Hafs A and b:
A didn't get lost this time but both struggled with genesis.
HafsA loops and stalls near the Big Bend and never leaves north Florida for the rest of the run.
https://i.imgur.com/118hbDI.png
https://i.imgur.com/4c2gAns.png
HafsB, faster, right of prior run. But stalls here for about 24 hours before moving slightly further north, but still in Florida (Just south of GA border) by hour 117 the drifts back closer to the Gulf/Big Bend by the end of the run on 0z Wed.
https://i.imgur.com/fFer68a.png
Dr. Andy Hazelton, one of the HAFS developers at HRD, has a pinned tweet saying the high res hurricane models are not reliable before a coherent center forms. With caveats of no coherent center having formed yet, the trend of the models at 0Z is further E with less time over water, and any stall happens over the Atlantic. Intensity on the models have also trended down. Does anybody know how to find the SHIPS run with Euro input? NHC mentions it from time to time, it exists. It may be like the old FSU Super Ensemble, not for public consumption.