ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

19.1N 77.7W
Looks like some low-level clouds moving west to east

A few short-duration hot towers to the NW of that.
She's trying.

[BobHarlem]

2pm official position is 21.1N 77.5W

[wxman57]

By the way, here's a great website with a satellite loop that displays the latest NHC track. You can determine if the system is following the track. Lots of convection north of the track. My general rule is that the center will follow the convection, never the other way around.

https://zoom.earth/storms/04l-2024/

So you said your expecting the NHC to nudge more east you think it move into SW Florida? If the center does jump north of cuba we could be looking at more impacts potentially across the southern half of the peninsula.

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

[toad strangler]

2pm official position is 21.1N 77.5W

Right over the spine of Cuba. Most of the big mountains are behind PTC4 now.

[Stratton23]

Im thinking the center will reform south of cuba

[SFLcane]

By the way, here's a great website with a satellite loop that displays the latest NHC track. You can determine if the system is following the track. Lots of convection north of the track. My general rule is that the center will follow the convection, never the other way around.

https://zoom.earth/storms/04l-2024/

So you said your expecting the NHC to nudge more east you think it move into SW Florida? If the center does jump north of cuba we could be looking at more impacts potentially across the southern half of the peninsula.

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

I do remember the storms dramatic shifts with Ian's track was forecast to hit northern fl and came into sw fl.

[chaser1]

19.1N 77.7W
Looks like some low-level clouds moving west to east

Good eye (no pun intended)!!! I was just now focusing on a point about 1 degree ESE of there. So perhaps a developing elongated east/west center right around that point
That would be a very significant development. Over water and remaining over water- bath water (AND solid upper air anticyc). Plus, if you look at the link that Wxman provided it not only depicts where NHC was projecting the COC but even more interestingly (and did not know) indicated present forecast track to immediately begin bending Northwestward from this point on. Things are about to get interesting

[Poonwalker]

Looks like it's consolidating just off the catchers mitt portion of Manzanillo. If so it will become less impacted by the terrain of east cuba and have some time over water. Agree that the long term motion will be similar if stronger but it will be a worse situation for Tampa with the right quadrant set up for a strengthening blow by.

[GCANE]

19.1N 77.7W
Looks like some low-level clouds moving west to east

Good eye (no pun intended)!!! I was just now focusing on a point about 1 degree ESE of there. So perhaps a developing elongated east/west center right around that point
That would be a very significant development. Over water and remaining over water- bath water (AND solid upper air anticyc). Plus, if you look at the link that Wxman provided it not only depicts where NHC was projecting the COC but even more interestingly (and did not know) indicated present forecast track to immediately begin bending Northwestward from this point on. Things are about to get interesting

Really good twist there with rapidly developing cumulus. A hot tower would nail it.

[NDG]

By the way, here's a great website with a satellite loop that displays the latest NHC track. You can determine if the system is following the track. Lots of convection north of the track. My general rule is that the center will follow the convection, never the other way around.

https://zoom.earth/storms/04l-2024/

Depends on what type of convection.

The convection south of Cuba looks to be updraft driven, while the convection well north of Cuba looks to be cold pool driven (i.e. the deepest convection is on the edges of the northern cloud canopy).

I agree, convection to the north look to be more from an outflow while the convection to the south and west are from lots of convergence going on there with Grand Cayman now reporting west winds, definitely a trough to the south of Cuba that the "center" will follow along with it.

[wxman57]

So you said your expecting the NHC to nudge more east you think it move into SW Florida? If the center does jump north of cuba we could be looking at more impacts potentially across the southern half of the peninsula.

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

I do remember the storms dramatic shifts with Ian's track was forecast to hit northern fl and came into sw fl.

I was on the forecast desk for Charley after it moved north of Cuba. With every new sat pic we could see the center tracking right of the forecast. It was hard to keep up with the shifting track. Thinking way back, I was on the forecast desk for Allen back in 1980 around this time of year. That was a long, long time ago.

[Lightning48]

WXMAN57 ]Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

What do you mean by a force field? Yes, Tampa hasn't been hit in over 100 years but due to people especially one as respected as you to say it is protected by a force field, I find that irresponsible and leads to complacency in the event a hurricane does come through Tampa Bay. I read your posts for many years and enjoy them

[StPeteMike]

Looks like the potential forming LLC is being dragged down from Manzanillo into the mid level circulation located where GCANE indicated.

I would have to really doubt that the northern convection wins this battle. I’ll expect the northern quadrant to start dying out tonight and the southern being the stronger/future center of Debby.

[StormPyrate]

WXMAN57 ]Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

What do you mean by a force field? Yes, Tampa hasn't been hit in over 100 years but due to people especially one as respected as you to say it is protected by a force field, I find that irresponsible and leads to complacency in the event a hurricane does come through Tampa Bay. I read your posts for many years and enjoy them

its a long standing point of conversation and goes unsaid its a myth, Wax is a valued contributor with many years of helpful contributions, relax

[chaser1]

I can make a case for a LLC around 19.0 and 77.5 and agree with Gcane on some low level westerly features. That's a full 2 degrees south of NHC 2:00pm position. They are obviously the pro's and certainly have more data at their fingertips however even if one were to pick a "mean" COC based on the above, plus take into consideration that better surface convergence has got to exist over water than well inland over higher elevation, and finally the building convection occurring just west and north of Jamaica around a south of Cuba potential location.... there's just no way that a center isn't forming somewhere south of the Cuban coastline and cannot see how it would simply be a transitory eddy unless the mid-level low were clearly to it's north and thus pull the eddy to the north and back over land. Anybody have any BFF's in S. Cuba that happens to have a mini weather station at their home that'll share their surface obs lol?

[skillz305]

IMO - the storm will track more East than shown as of now. It tends to point towards Tampa and ends up jogging more East into SWFL. JMO. Get your popcorn ready. At least we aren’t looking at a major. But that warm water sure is concerning after knowing what Charley did in just 8 hours.

[BobHarlem]

I can make a case for a LLC around 19.0 and 77.5 and agree with Gcane on some low level westerly features. That's a full 2 degrees south of NHC 2:00pm position. They are obviously the pro's and certainly have more data at their fingertips however even if one were to pick a "mean" COC based on the above, plus take into consideration that better surface convergence has got to exist over water than well inland over higher elevation, and finally the building convection occurring just west and north of Jamaica around a south of Cuba potential location.... there's just no way that a center isn't forming somewhere south of the Cuban coastline and cannot see how it would simply be a transitory eddy unless the mid-level low were clearly to it's north and thus pull the eddy to the north and back over land. Anybody have any BFF's in S. Cuba that happens to have a mini weather station at their home that'll share their surface obs lol?

They definitely shifted their 2pm plot south based on what would have been interpolated with the 11am and 5pm forecast position, maybe to hedge their bets, 5pm I bet gets a discussion about it, and with recon around it'll help.

[NDG]

By the way, here's a great website with a satellite loop that displays the latest NHC track. You can determine if the system is following the track. Lots of convection north of the track. My general rule is that the center will follow the convection, never the other way around.

https://zoom.earth/storms/04l-2024/

So you said your expecting the NHC to nudge more east you think it move into SW Florida? If the center does jump north of cuba we could be looking at more impacts potentially across the southern half of the peninsula.

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

Charley had much deeper trough, 570dm mid level, coming through the central US, very unusual for the time of the year, so it made sense that it took a sharper right hook.

[Lightning48]

[quote][/quote]its a long standing point of conversation and goes unsaid its a myth, Wax is a valued contributor with many years of helpful contributions.

Yes he is a valued member, and I stated that at the end! No disrespect was intended but having lived in Tampa since 1986 and I hear all the myths and some day your luck will run out. Just my two cents!

[JaxGator]

By the way, here's a great website with a satellite loop that displays the latest NHC track. You can determine if the system is following the track. Lots of convection north of the track. My general rule is that the center will follow the convection, never the other way around.

https://zoom.earth/storms/04l-2024/

So you said your expecting the NHC to nudge more east you think it move into SW Florida? If the center does jump north of cuba we could be looking at more impacts potentially across the southern half of the peninsula.

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

The one exception would be Hurricane Idalia. It’s 2 against 1 but we’ll see. It does look like a center is consolidating south of Cuba/near the coast per the vorticity graphic from the University of Wisconsin. Don’t how to post a photo of it tho.