ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Position:

[GCANE]

Highest OHC water in the Atlantic just south of Isle of Youth.
Just sayin

[chaser1]

its a long standing point of conversation and goes unsaid its a myth, Wax is a valued contributor with many years of helpful contributions.

Yes he is a valued member, and I stated that at the end! No disrespect was intended but having lived in Tampa since 1986 and I hear all the myths and some day your luck will run out. Just my two cents!

The "forcefield" stated was in jest. Those of us on this board for the last couple decades know that Besides, there are a couple of Florida EC "forcefields" too

[wxman57]

WXMAN57 ]Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

What do you mean by a force field? Yes, Tampa hasn't been hit in over 100 years but due to people especially one as respected as you to say it is protected by a force field, I find that irresponsible and leads to complacency in the event a hurricane does come through Tampa Bay. I read your posts for many years and enjoy them

You're joking, right? Everyone here knows about the Tampa force field.

[redingtonbeach]

I’ll say it again- I’m not digging the NAM. BTW, they say AnnaMaria Island is an ancient burial ground and is blessed by spirits thus no hurricanes. Myth of course, but many people over the years confuse that myth with St. Pete and Tampa.

[Poonwalker]

its a long standing point of conversation and goes unsaid its a myth, Wax is a valued contributor with many years of helpful contributions.

Yes he is a valued member, and I stated that at the end! No disrespect was intended but having lived in Tampa since 1986 and I hear all the myths and some day your luck will run out. Just my two cents!

The "forcefield" stated was in jest. Those of us on this board for the last couple decades know that Besides, there are a couple of Florida EC "forcefields" too

There's the Seminole indian burial grounds also in play. The old chiefs spells at work

[Lightning48]

[quote][/quote]The "forcefield" stated was in jest. Those of us on this board for the last couple decades know that Besides, there are a couple of Florida EC "forcefields" too :wink

I understand that Chaser and again my bad if I overreacted. WXMAN my bad!! I get frustrated in my area of people who have become so complacent and think a hurricane can never happen in our area. My Aunt and Uncle went through Andrew in 92 down in Cutler Ridge so I want to help others know that its real. Have a great day and thank you for what you all do.

[SFLcane]

WXMAN57 ]Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

What do you mean by a force field? Yes, Tampa hasn't been hit in over 100 years but due to people especially one as respected as you to say it is protected by a force field, I find that irresponsible and leads to complacency in the event a hurricane does come through Tampa Bay. I read your posts for many years and enjoy them

You're joking, right? Everyone here knows about the Tampa force field.

Not to sure NHC will be making any east shifts 18z models shift back west tampa might not be so lucky this go around thankfully this is not a major.

[Lightning48]

You're joking, right? Everyone here knows about the Tampa force field.

Yes I am and I just stated that in another post

[caneman]

I’ll say it again- I’m not digging the NAM. BTW, they say AnnaMaria Island is an ancient burial ground and is blessed by spirits thus no hurricanes. Myth of course, but many people over the years confuse that myth with St. Pete and Tampa.

There are iin fact Indian burial grounds in St. Pete, Safety Harbor and I believe Indian Rocks beach. That's not a myth. Now, them protecting us is a myth

[caneman]

I’ll say it again- I’m not digging the NAM. BTW, they say AnnaMaria Island is an ancient burial ground and is blessed by spirits thus no hurricanes. Myth of course, but many people over the years confuse that myth with St. Pete and Tampa.

The force field my be true for majors but we've been hit by many storms and Tampa, Tarpon area are 2 of the most affected area by storms in general as per Hurricane City well and living here for 50 years. Lol

[HurricaneBelle]

So you said your expecting the NHC to nudge more east you think it move into SW Florida? If the center does jump north of cuba we could be looking at more impacts potentially across the southern half of the peninsula.

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

The one exception would be Hurricane Idalia. It’s 2 against 1 but we’ll see. It does look like a center is consolidating south of Cuba/near the coast per the vorticity graphic from the University of Wisconsin. Don’t how to post a photo of it tho.

Idalia isn't the only exception - Hermine, Eta, Elsa, Debby 2012 and some others I'm likely forgetting all bypassed the Tampa Bay area moving north instead of turning in south of us. It's just that Charley and Ian were high-profile major hurricanes that were forecast to hit directly near here and ended up landfalling in SWFL. Charley was 20 years ago and modeling has come a long way since then, and Ian didn't exactly make a last-minute turn as the forecasts continually trended south and called it for it to make landfall south of Tampa Bay almost 48 hours before it did.

[zzzh]

Note the westerlies observed in the Cayman islands, suggesting that a LLC is forming, though still broad.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Something I've been saying for a while might happen:

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1819449982111699067

[robbielyn]

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

The one exception would be Hurricane Idalia. It’s 2 against 1 but we’ll see. It does look like a center is consolidating south of Cuba/near the coast per the vorticity graphic from the University of Wisconsin. Don’t how to post a photo of it tho.

Idalia isn't the only exception - Hermine, Eta, Elsa, Debby 2012 and some others I'm likely forgetting all bypassed the Tampa Bay area moving north instead of turning in south of us. It's just that Charley and Ian were high-profile major hurricanes that were forecast to hit directly near here and ended up landfalling in SWFL. Charley was 20 years ago and modeling has come a long way since then, and Ian didn't exactly make a last-minute turn as the forecasts continually trended south and called it for it to make landfall south of Tampa Bay almost 48 hours before it did.

Most likely Charley would have gotten closer to tampabay if it weren't for that unusually October like cold front that passed through. Here in Hernando county that cold dry air came through.

[DunedinDave]

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

The one exception would be Hurricane Idalia. It’s 2 against 1 but we’ll see. It does look like a center is consolidating south of Cuba/near the coast per the vorticity graphic from the University of Wisconsin. Don’t how to post a photo of it tho.

Idalia isn't the only exception - Hermine, Eta, Elsa, Debby 2012 and some others I'm likely forgetting all bypassed the Tampa Bay area moving north instead of turning in south of us. It's just that Charley and Ian were high-profile major hurricanes that were forecast to hit directly near here and ended up landfalling in SWFL. Charley was 20 years ago and modeling has come a long way since then, and Ian didn't exactly make a last-minute turn as the forecasts continually trended south and called it for it to make landfall south of Tampa Bay almost 48 hours before it did.

Isn’t this forecast track almost a carbon copy of Elsa in 2021? Even intensity depending on which model you look at? Seems I remember Elsa going through the same part of Cuba, exiting around the same point and going up the Fla west coast.

[Poonwalker]

The water vapor imagery is just signaling liftoff with a pronounced spin and blowup at 19.3 N and 78.5 W. Trying to find a zoomed version

[tropicwatch]

Some of the Recon data coming out of Miss Piggy are very funky. Too much bacon I guess
Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 19:09:30Z
Coordinates: 23.767N 74.983W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,255 m (10,679 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.6 mb (29.99 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 125° at 31 kts (From the SE at 35.7 mph)
Air Temp: 8.3°C* (46.9°F*)
Dew Pt: 9.4°C* (48.9°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 kts (38.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 kts (56.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)

[robbielyn]

but wouldn't that probably also go farther away from the fl peninsula maybe north to appalach or westward panhandle MS or AL?

[StPeteMike]

PTC 4 is also a month and a half later than Hurricane Elsa occurred. It also struggled for the first half of its life because the conditions in the Caribbean weren’t the greatest. Wouldn’t say the forecast here is identical to Elsa.

The discussion about Tampa Bay protection is pretty silly to me, but that’s my 2 cents.