ATL: DEBBY - Models

[MetroMike]

12z GFS landfalls in Tampa area

They never do. Not buying it!

The Peace River's very warm water always diverts them. Then they come in at Ft. Myers.

How does the peace river with its warm waters divert the storm?

Yeah thats a new one to me LOLZ

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: first landfall Apalachicola; then would be potential disaster rainfall potential-wise, especially for SC/NC coasts due to a crawl up the coast CHS N and then back inland into coastal NC: this is to the left of the 0Z run, which was offshore

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.8N 84.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 48 25.5N 84.6W 1006 35
0000UTC 05.08.2024 60 27.4N 85.0W 1005 41
1200UTC 05.08.2024 72 29.2N 84.8W 1005 42
0000UTC 06.08.2024 84 30.3N 83.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 06.08.2024 96 31.7N 82.0W 1003 43
0000UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.4N 80.9W 999 37
1200UTC 07.08.2024 120 32.6N 80.0W 995 35
0000UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.1N 79.0W 993 41
1200UTC 08.08.2024 144 33.9N 78.4W 993 44
0000UTC 09.08.2024 156 34.1N 78.3W 994 45
1200UTC 09.08.2024 168 35.1N 78.3W 996 38

[karenfromheaven]

An AI LLM transformer-type model has been developed using EURO data through 2020. Here's the latest for this storm. Tracks pretty close to the regular EURO:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202408020600&projection=opencharts_central_america&valid_time=202408020600

[OuterBanker]

12 z run is bad news for OBX.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=132

No one has mentioned Ernesto into Tx/La either

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=132

[Stormlover70]

12z GFS landfalls in Tampa area

They never do. Not buying it!

The Peace River's very warm water always diverts them. Then they come in at Ft. Myers.

How does the peace river with its warm waters divert the storm?

I am confident with the NHC track just worried about intensity they struggle with that

[StPeteMike]

Think someone mentioned it in the Models thread and someone called it a phantom.

Though the Euro also has it, weaker, and the Canadian seems to have something, yet weaker than the Euro, into Northern Mexico from the Bay of Campeche.

[chaser1]

An AI LLM transformer-type model has been developed using EURO data through 2020. Here's the latest for this storm. Tracks pretty close to the regular EURO:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202408020600&projection=opencharts_central_america&valid_time=202408020600

Yes, I think this is the same as the AIFS model on Tropical Tidbits

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is a bit stronger (strongest of all runs into NW FL) and still has a FL Big Bend landfall.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro, which is strongest yet into the FL Big Bend, goes offshore at Brunswick and then becomes the strongest in many runs offshore the SE US with a 988 mb H. Then it turns back W and hits CHS, SC, as a 989 mb H before going well inland and weakening.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro says not just a H hit at CHS but also a rainfall flooding potential disaster is quite possible SAV to Georgetown, SC, with 10”+ amounts and inland a bit especially SC Lowcountry. Keep in mind that that area has had well above normal rainfall the last 2 weeks. Hopefully this run is way off.

[NDG]

If 12z Euro verifies, 48 hrs over the very warm GOM waters will be more than enough time to strengthen into a hurricane before a FL landfall.

[DunedinDave]

If you put the Euro track with Hurricane Elsa’s track from
2021, they’d almost be on top of each other. Intensity in the gulf could be identical too. I think it scraped the west coast as a cat 1.

[HurricaneBelle]

If you put the Euro track with Hurricane Elsa’s track from
2021, they’d almost be on top of each other. Intensity in the gulf could be identical too. I think it scraped the west coast as a cat 1.

Elsa was briefly a Cat 1 west of SWFL but fell apart almost as quickly as it formed and was a TS when it passed offshore Tampa Bay and made landfall in the Big Bend.

[sasha_B]

It's hard not to be concerned about the 12z Euro and Icon runs here in the Lowcountry, frankly. I know a lot can change when you're looking at the 4-5 day range - and the GFS solution is reassuring - but that's a lot of rain in 48 hours. Even the average of the GFS/Euro/Icon/CMC/UK models (or the high end of the official WPC forecast) - around 8 inches - would be plenty to cause flooding downtown, even without accounting for potential surge or high tides.

[BobHarlem]

18z earlies, shifted left a bit, initial position shifted SW (I think it'll shift more wsw for 0z once recon gets through all of it)

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1819462793281880355

[BobHarlem]

Decent west shift on Euro Ensembles

[NDG]

Also notice how a majority of the 12z EC Ensembles jumped on board with the vorticity taking over south of Cuba.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure the solution from the Euro has changed much. Vorticity south of Cuba then going over Cuba, delaying most organization.

[Steve]

8-3-24 00Z QPF - 7 day rain totals