ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abk_0710]

If the center forms further south, what the farthest west Four could go?

[IsabelaWeather]

So you said your expecting the NHC to nudge more east you think it move into SW Florida? If the center does jump north of cuba we could be looking at more impacts potentially across the southern half of the peninsula.

Think Charley 2004 and Ian 2022. Tampa has a force field that makes storms move inland to the south of the forecast. Center may form beneath convection that is already north of the track. If so, then track will be adjusted farther down the coast.

Charley had much deeper trough, 570dm mid level, coming through the central US, very unusual for the time of the year, so it made sense that it took a sharper right hook.

https://i.imgur.com/p7rzNUE.gif

Yeah, I was home in michigan during Charley and was surprised because I could see my breath in late august. It was very unusual, I think it was 42 or 43 degrees

Edit, charley was earlier than I remember, which makes the coldness even more unusual.

[StPeteMike]

NHC 5 pm is about a degree or 1.5 north from where I think the center will really start going.

[Craters]

I’ll say it again- I’m not digging the NAM. BTW, they say AnnaMaria Island is an ancient burial ground and is blessed by spirits thus no hurricanes. Myth of course, but many people over the years confuse that myth with St. Pete and Tampa.

Now, of course, we know that it's simply the effects of a force field.

[Stormlover70]

NHC 5 pm is about a degree or 1.5 north from where I think the center will really start going.

pretty sure NHC has a handle on it.

[LandoWill]

The shift west seems like a trend, if i lived in the panhandle i wouldn't let my guard down, Pensacola for example.

[IcyTundra]

NHC 5 pm is about a degree or 1.5 north from where I think the center will really start going.

pretty sure NHC has a handle on it.

Still some uncertainty from the latest NHC discussion:

While the track
guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of
issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward,
and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the
center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being
almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and
the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could
cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas
receive the strongest impacts.

[Nimbus]

That is where I saw the LLC center forming and recon isn't finding much north of Cuba.
The 12Z Euro track stayed west of Tampa probably as a stronger storm.
Where is the 18Z GFS first landfall?

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

Latest EC ensembles have jumped on board with the developing vorticity south of Cuba thus a more western track, bulls eye on the Big Bend of FL. 48 hrs over the very warm waters of the GOM along with low wind shear, more than plenty of time for it to become at least a Cat 1 while in the gulf.

If the center crosses Cuba through Bay of Pigs fairly quickly we get the easier track solutions we've seen across Florida and up the east coast. Not sure what would happen if this tracks further west or even misses the "lobster claw". Stalls are forecasting nightmares. NHC was wise to keep the high winds in the Tampa Bay forecast.

[StPeteMike]

NHC 5 pm is about a degree or 1.5 north from where I think the center will really start going.

pretty sure NHC has a handle on it.

Still some uncertainty from the latest NHC discussion:

While the track
guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of
issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward,
and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the
center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being
almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and
the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could
cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas
receive the strongest impacts.

Thank You.

I don’t doubt the NHC, they clearly have the expertise and education over me, but nothing says they can’t be wrong. They had the “center” over Cuba still by 8 pm this morning, doesn’t seem to be the case.

[hipshot]

Since Irma, with these close to florida/west coast Florida storms.I think i am going to stick with GFS over euro. I think we need to think about storm locations as well as the models when trying to pick which we believe more in. Curious of those in the gulf of Mexico which have been more right than wrong in the last 5-10 years?

This may sound stupid but what are the chances we have 2 storms out of this, one in the eastern GOM near Florida and the other moves
west up through the Yucatan and into the central/western GOM?

[MGC]

MCL starting to spin over Cuba and still headed westward. Going to have to start feeling that trough and heading more north soon. Looking like the Big Bend area of Florida landfall as Cat-1........MGC

[TomballEd]

Been starting for a while. I still can't tell if the center will form between Jamaica and the Caymans, or whether it will form on the S Coast of Cuba or even inland Cuba

[robbielyn]

Levi Cowan’s video just came up. tropicaltidbits.com

[weeniepatrol]

Surface westerly flow increasing

[ScottNAtlanta]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=yfzwkoHUEac

[ChrisH-UK]

Here is the radar out of Cayman Island, Cuba and Key west, looks like the center of rotation maybe south of Cuba.

Radar Link - https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 9776540145

[Nuno]

https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZDIzOHh6b2F5cmk3andlOWJlOXVxaGFyZXVyenY1eWNnaTI4Z252YyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/8GyV3YIlgPaDzkYuwo/giphy.gif

Been starting for a while. I still can't tell if the center will form between Jamaica and the Caymans, or whether it will form on the S Coast of Cuba or even inland Cuba

I hope we see an advisory at 11pm... it already looks like a TC.

[DunedinDave]

Yeah I definitely think the center is going to be a little south of where the NHC has it. Some euro ensembles have actually already picked up on this and used it in their latest model.

[Stormcenter]

Like the confidence but we all know things can
change quickly.

NHC 5 pm is about a degree or 1.5 north from where I think the center will really start going.

pretty sure NHC has a handle on it.

[tiger_deF]

The impacts of future Debby is incredibly sensitive to the path now because of the offshore portion of the track. If Debby moves too far to the left, then it may never exit back over water, be a nuisance TS/weak hurricane to the battered West coast, then that's that. If Debby moves farther to the right, it could pose a serious hurricane threat to the Southeast US and potentially even further North than that. Crucial couple of days.