ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Cuban radar

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[GCANE]

GFS 355K PV Streamer run-to-run starting to show a weakening of the trof once TD4 enters the GoM

[hipshot]

Here is the radar out of Cayman Island, Cuba and Key west, looks like the center of rotation maybe south of Cuba.

Radar Link - https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 9776540145

https://imgur.com/2W5T0Zq

I'm certainly no weather expert but you can certainly see the rotation in the lower lobe of this wave south of Cuba. I wonder when or if
the NHC will recognize it or explain why it is not a concern.

[robbielyn]

Here is the radar out of Cayman Island, Cuba and Key west, looks like the center of rotation maybe south of Cuba.

Radar Link - https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 9776540145

https://imgur.com/2W5T0Zq

I'm certainly no weather expert but you can certainly see the rotation in the lower lobe of this wave south of Cuba. I wonder when or if
the NHC will recognize it or explain why it is not a concern.

Watch levi’s video it will explain where the center is and what u r seeing

[tolakram]

saved loop


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

Sure looks to me like the LLC emerged off the southern coast of Cuba a few hours ago.

[Craters]

Sure looks to me like the LLC emerged off the southern coast of Cuba a few hours ago.

In his latest video, Levi's interpretation is that the mid-level center is actually over the water to the south of Cuba, and the low-level clouds showing westerly winds are being drawn into that cluster of thunderstorms. I think he said that the mid-level circulation actually isn't closed off to the south yet, and the LLC is still over the spine of Cuba.

[stormhunter7]

think we have the HOT tower going up that will help kickoff the surface center?

[GCANE]

IMHO it will miss the trof and linger in the GoM. This could be one of the bigger model fails.
They really need to start incorporating high res mesocale modeling.
Been saying that for years.

[GCANE]

think we have the HOT tower going up that will help kickoff the surface center?

Good helicity with it. Definitely will push the vort to the surface.

[Zonacane]

think we have the HOT tower going up that will help kickoff the surface center?

Good helicity with it. Definitely will push the vort to the surface.

Dual bands rotating into the developing center, won’t be long now

[stormhunter7]

think we have the HOT tower going up that will help kickoff the surface center?

Good helicity with it. Definitely will push the vort to the surface.

Right under the 700mb vorticity too it seems?

[stormhunter7]

DAL1987 just flew by it on the east side. Maybe someone on the left side took some pictures out the window?

[Steve]

Since Irma, with these close to florida/west coast Florida storms.I think i am going to stick with GFS over euro. I think we need to think about storm locations as well as the models when trying to pick which we believe more in. Curious of those in the gulf of Mexico which have been more right than wrong in the last 5-10 years?

This may sound stupid but what are the chances we have 2 storms out of this, one in the eastern GOM near Florida and the other moves
west up through the Yucatan and into the central/western GOM?

Probably super low but if the north lobe would have split off on the other side of Florida there was enough in a couple of the models to suspect it. Just the same the 18z GFs has a farther west storm in the middle of the Gulf at 210 hours which isn’t exactly la la land. Scarier than 4 in my opinion. Also the bias-corrected Australian MJO output has us in a dangerous Phase 2 or 3 until the 18th. See for yourself.

GFS now is out to 9 days. Cat 2 middle of the Gulf

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=228

Bias corrected Australian MJO
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

[Recurve]

I see Pinellas County, Big Bend area is in the zone as of Advisory 2 with TS Storm Watch posted. For us in St. Pete, hoping for just a rain event. I fear the Gulf fuel, but even worst-case RI would have only a day before landfall. We hope. Will be watching closely. DM me if you need any local info.

[weeniepatrol]

IMHO it will miss the trof and linger in the GoM. This could be one of the bigger model fails.
They really need to start incorporating high res mesocale modeling.
Been saying that for years.

I'm thinking this too. This is quickly becoming a nightmare. Consolidation south of Cuba means at least 1-2 extra days over water... as right now as it gets to track parallel to the southern coast of Cuba.. instead of directly over it, and down the line it will probably emerge into the Gulf of Mexico west of the current NHC track. This means a stronger system that takes longer to landfall in Florida.. thus increasing the chances of missing the trof. IMO, a hurricane, perhaps a powerful one - chances are increasing.

[Poonwalker]

It’s consolidating over water. It will be a stronger system than the models are showing but that’s not a knock since this was only a wave they were trying initiate with. I think once a well defined center is achieved they will be on it especially when recon is added. Panhandle needs to watch this one close but all of Florida will be on the bad side especially the west coast.

[stormhunter7]

It’s consolidating over water. It will be a stronger system than the models are showing but that’s not a knock since this was only a wave they were trying initiate with. I think once a well defined center is achieved they will be on it especially when recon is added. Panhandle needs to watch this one close but all of Florida will be on the bad side especially the west coast.

Agree. Does look like may be trying to consolidate over south side of Cuba?
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/AL042024/DayNightCloudMicroCombo/20242151530-20242152210-ABI-AL042024-DayNightCloudMicroCombo-1000x1000.gif

[Stormlover70]

I see Pinellas County, Big Bend area is in the zone as of Advisory 2 with TS Storm Watch posted. For us in St. Pete, hoping for just a rain event. I fear the Gulf fuel, but even worst-case RI would have only a day before landfall. We hope. Will be watching closely. DM me if you need any local info.

pasco here

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I believe the LLC may be consolidating right under the blow-up over the extreme northern Caribbean.