ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

I really dont like how this is looking
https://i.imgur.com/b4tGQku.gif

Further west and pretty ugly by morning.

[Sciencerocks]

[BobHarlem]

The NHC's 8pm position (21.4N 78.9W), although same latitude as 5pm, is much further west, offshore to the south, and closer to the blowup near the Jardines de la Reina islands of Cuba that folks have been pointing out here, so maybe 0z models will have better initialization.

[AtlanticWind]

Looking like it’s slowing down, should be making its turn to the northwest overnight

[Stratton23]

I have a sneaking suspicion this isnt going to follow model guidance exactly, very similar to beryl which defied guidance all the way up until landfall, wouldnt shock me if this system does that lol, seems this season is full of surprises

[toad strangler]

I have a sneaking suspicion this isnt going to follow model guidance exactly, very similar to beryl which defied guidance all the way up until landfall, wouldnt shock me if this system does that lol, seems this season is full of surprises

Model guidance is just that. Guidance. A forecasting tool. Almost all storms don’t follow modeling exactly. Not sure what your point is? But pretty sure it ain’t sneaky

We need a true center. I know that statement is old has the hills in Cuba. But it’s truth!

[tropicwatch]

Looking like Crystal River is in the center of the forecast cone for landfall at this point. Riding the west coast of Florida. Should be interesting to watch the radar returns and local reports.

[Stormlover70]

Looking like Crystal River is in the center of the forecast cone for landfall at this point. Riding the west coast of Florida. Should be interesting to watch the radar returns and local reports.

watching in new port richey

[LandoWill]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

[N2FSU]

Due west between 5:00p and 8:00p advisories


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[StPeteMike]

Do wonder if the trough weakening and the lack of steering pattern will occur. If it does and with a a good half day extra and a little more west than forecasted, then this might meander more over the northeast GoM.

[StPeteMike]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

Way too premature to making such statements.

[cycloneye]

00z best track in the water.

AL, 04, 2024080300, , BEST, 0, 210N, 791W, 25, 1010, LO

[SFLcane]

Cancel the flood watch..

[MGC]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

Way too premature to making such statements.

After the Katrina fiasco I don't trust forecasts. Usually NHC is spot on but they do make mistakes. Beryl is the latest example. Katrina was going to Florida panhandle until the 300 mile shift west in the forecast track. Until PTC4 starts the north turn I'll be skeptical as should all of us.......MGC

[Stormlover70]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

Way too premature to making such statements.

After the Katrina fiasco I don't trust forecasts. Usually NHC is spot on but they do make mistakes. Beryl is the latest example. Katrina was going to Florida panhandle until the 300 mile shift west in the forecast track. Until PTC4 starts the north turn I'll be skeptical as should all of us.......MGC

this is no Katrina

[StormPyrate]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

Way too premature to making such statements.

After the Katrina fiasco I don't trust forecasts. Usually NHC is spot on but they do make mistakes. Beryl is the latest example. Katrina was going to Florida panhandle until the 300 mile shift west in the forecast track. Until PTC4 starts the north turn I'll be skeptical as should all of us.......MGC

that was still 3 days out, we are within 3 days now

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1819542649226838141

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is quite a bit further south than I thought it would be. I think it is south of where best track has it

[ScottNAtlanta]