Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean (0/0)

[weeniepatrol]

Central Atlantic wave:

[cycloneye]

Splited your post from the global models thread to create the tropical wave thread to have good discussions apart from the models. The model runs can be posted here.

[weeniepatrol]

Thanks, Luis. I'll go ahead and repost this tweet then:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1819518079879336208

In addition to #PTC4, a sneaky tropical wave ~1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles will have to be closely watched for some tropical development over the next several days as it approaches the Caribbean.

Record warm SSTs (~29-30°C), light shear, and respectable deep-layer moisture are helping this tropical wave maintain convection against the passage of a suppressed CCKW.

Although fast, divergent low-level trade winds may be a potential stumbling block in the east-central Caribbean, the environment ahead is only likely to generally improve for this wave as the enhanced phase of the Kelvin Wave & MJO begin to move into the Western Atlantic.

Interests in/around the Caribbean, Central America, and even Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this system.

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1819246265365926389

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS is much weaker with this, goes over cuba and into Southwest Florida.

[Stratton23]

Im not concerned with the OP models as each run will be wildly different , the GFS splits the wave with most of the energy just crashing into CA, its worth watching as the environment will be decent as the wave gets into the western part of the caribbean

[Stratton23]

CMC gets into the bay of campache and tries to develop, albiet stretched out, but does try to get something going

[Stratton23]

ensemble support for this wave is surprisingly bullish, western gulf might need to watch this one in about 10 days

[cycloneye]

Yikes. Landfall south of Galveston, Texas. weeniepatrol, modified the title to include the Windward Islands.

[Stratton23]

Big oof, 06z GFS just turned galveston and se texas into the lost city of atlantis with a major hurricane strike

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1819689942869500359

[aspen]

GFS remains consistent, while the operational Euro is showing the wave a little more than before. No TCG on that model yet. However, the EPS is starting to pick up on it now.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS does not develop.

[Stratton23]

Operational runs will continue to go back and forth, ensembles however definitely like this wave

[Stratton23]

because the wave is at a low latitude, its potential interaction with south america could through a wrench into what happens with this, models will struggle with how this waves interacts as it moves westward over time

[zzzh]

12Z EPS still looks active.

[weeniepatrol]

12Z EPS still looks active.

[jlauderdal]

12Z EPS still looks active.

Peak would still be a month away on that run.

[LadyBug72]

12z GFS does not develop.

I thought it showed it going into Mexico?

[Stratton23]

Ladybug72 that would be the CMC, but at this range, model track outputs dont mean much, however that being said the ensembles generally agree this one could pose more of a threat to the western gulf ( Mexico, Louisiana, Texas) and could possibly have a pretty favorable environment as it gets into the western caribbean in about 7 days