EPAC: DANIEL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2024073018, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1216W, 25, 1010, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep952024.dat

[Yellow Evan]

Solid convective organization but shear from the systems to its east will be an issue.

[Kingarabian]

Great structure so far. Good inflow and outflow is expanding. Looks just as good as 94E.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

0z Hurricane models:

HWRF develops into a strong TS by the end of the run, definite outlier for now
HMON has a short lived TS
HAFS-A and B both don't develop.

Perhaps a chance for a quick spin up but I'm not expecting much here. I think the NHC's 40% seems reasonable

[Kingarabian]

It's appearence has degraded today.

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized compared to yesterday near and just west of an area of low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. However, marginal environmental
conditions are likely to limit development of this system during
the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters
during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[galaxy401]

This appears to went unnoticed here:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1155 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure in the Western part of the East Pacific (EP95).

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has a well-defined circulation and is
producing winds up to 35 mph. Despite marginal environmental
conditions, any improvement in the current convective organization
could result formation of a tropical depression over the next day or
two as the low meanders over open waters, then begins to move
northeastward by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Could see a short-lived storm here.

[cycloneye]

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little
in organization since earlier today. Despite marginal environmental
conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so
as the low meanders. By late this weekend, environmental conditions
are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as
the system moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

This is already a TC. Sheared yes but there should easily be 30-35kt winds below those cold tops to its west.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Earlier satellite-derived wind data showed a well-defined area of
low pressure located located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula that was producing
winds of up to 35-40 mph just west of the center. In addition,
shower and thunderstorm activity has developed a little closer to
the center this morning. If these convective trends continue, this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development
in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Subtrop]

EP, 04, 2024080312, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1299W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 50, 1012, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, TRANSITIONED, epA52024 to ep042024,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 042024.dat

[Yellow Evan]

About a day late. Getting badly sheared now.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Over the last several days, we have been monitoring the area of low
pressure located in the western part of the east Pacific basin,
currently near 130W. The deep convection with the system has been
pulsing during this time, and has been showing evidence of
organization. In fact, TAFB has been providing Dvorak intensity
estimates of CI-2.0/30 kt over the past day, and SAB more recently
provided a Data-T of 2.0/30 kt at 12 UTC. Overnight, scatterometer
wind data showed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of
35-40 kt west of the center. Some of these winds may have been
rain- inflated, but the coverage was broad enough that it is likely
that tropical storm force winds exist with the circulation. The
combination of these data suggest that the low has become a Tropical
Storm, and advisories are being initiated on Daniel with an
intensity of 35 kt.

The tropical storm has been meandering, but the current motion is
estimated to be slowly off to the northwest at 315/4 kt. Over the
next day or two, Daniel is expected to be embedded in southwesterly
monsoonal flow that is shifting northward ahead of Hurricane
Carlotta. This flow is expected to result in Daniel soon turning
northward and then northeastward as it remains embedded in this
flow. After 48 h, The storm may pivot back toward the north and
north-northwest as it becomes captures by Carlotta's larger outer
circulation. The track guidance does have a significant amount of
spread beyond 48 h related to how much Carlotta captures the smaller
Daniel, with the initial track forecast electing to go in between
the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids, which also roughly splits the
difference between the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

The environment Daniel has been and will be embedded in is not very
favorable for much additional intensification, with moderate
northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level relative
humidity. Only a modest amount of strengthening is shown in the
short-term, and ultimately Daniel is likely to get caught up in
Carlotta's circulation, finally being absorbed by the larger cyclone
after day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with
the guidance, close to SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 12.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 12.8N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.4N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

WTPZ44 KNHC 032041
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Since this morning, Daniel continues to be a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the deepest central convection remaining displaced to
the west of the low-level center, which is now mostly exposed. This
structure was also captured in a GMI microwave pass at 1712 UTC
which showed the low-level center on the 37 GHz channel with the
deeper convection displaced to the southwest. Subjective Dvorak Data
T-numbers are both 2.0/30 kt from SAB and TAFB, but given the
earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will remain 35 kt this
advisory.

Daniel has been moving very slowly today and may have reformed a bit
westward from last night, with the current motion estimated as a
northward drift at 360/2 kt. As previously discussed, the primary
steering mechanism the next several days is large-scale monsoonal
southwesterly flow that the cyclone is expected to remain embedded
in. This flow should begin to cause Daniel to move northeastward
within the next 12 to 24 h. After 48 h, the influence of Carlotta's
outer circulation should cause the weaker Daniel to turn more
northward or north-northwestward before it becomes a remnant low or
is absorbed by the stronger storm. There was not a whole lot of
change in the track guidance for this cycle other than in the very
short-term due to the more westward initial position, and the NHC
track forecast is very close to the prior forecast, blending the
HCCA and TCVE consensus aids.

There is also not much change in the intensity reasoning for Daniel.
Moderate northeasterly shear and a dry mid-level air environment
will probably prevent much robust strengthening despite the warm 29
C sea-surface temperatures, and only a modest increase in winds are
forecast over the next 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, Daniel's circulation
is forecast to begin interacting with Carlotta to the north, and
will likely start to gradually weaken. Both the GFS and ECMWF
suggest the circulation will stop producing organized convection by
72 h, just before the system opens up into a trough. The intensity
forecast remains in good agreement with the HCCA and SHIPS guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 12.3N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 12.8N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 18.0N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 19.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Deep convection associated with Daniel continues to pulse this
evening. The convection is not well organized in bands, but it has
recently moved closer to the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt,
but the initial intensity is once again held at 35 kt in deference
to the earlier scatterometer data and the fact that there has been
little overall change in organization.

The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as before.
Moderate northeasterly shear and dry mid-level air is likely to
prevent significant strengthening overnight. On Sunday, the shear
is forecast to relax some which could allow the cyclone to
strengthen slightly while it traverses warm sea surface
temperatures. By 48 hours, Daniel is likely to weaken as it moves
over cooler waters and reaches a more stable environment. The
cyclone is likely to cease producing organized deep convection in
about 60 hours, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around
that time.

Daniel has moved very little since the previous advisory, but a slow
northward motion is expected to begin shortly. The cyclone should
start moving faster toward the northeast on Sunday as southwesterly
low to mid-level flow around Hurricane Carlotta increases. After 48
h, the influence of Carlotta's outer circulation should cause the
weaker Daniel to turn more northward or north-northwestward before
it becomes a remnant low. The updated NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory through 36-48 hours, and it adjusted
slightly westward thereafter to be closer to the latest consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 12.3N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Daniel is not a particularly well organized tropical cyclone, and
the satellite presentation suggests the storm could be elongated
from southwest to northeast. However, it continues to produce some
deep convection near the estimated center position. Unfortunately,
recent scatterometer data swaths missed Daniel overnight. The latest
UW-CIMSS objective ADT and AiDT estimates as well as the subjective
Dvorak classification from TAFB support keeping the initial
intensity at 35 kt.

The initial position of Daniel is uncertain, but it appears the
storm is presently drifting northward. A faster northeastward motion
is expected later today through Monday due to increasing
southwesterly low- to mid-level flow while Tropical Storm Carlotta
passes to the north. Most of the global models show Daniel becoming
caught in the outer circulation of Carlotta, and the updated NHC
track forecast has been adjusted beyond 36 h to show Daniel slowing
down and turning toward the north and northwest later in the period.
These adjustments reflect the latest trends in the multi-model
consensus aids.

In the short term, the moderate northeasterly shear that has
plagued Daniel is forecast to diminish. The latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a bit of strengthening during the next day or so,
but this is primarily related to the northeastward acceleration of
the storm as opposed to significant deepening of the low. As
Daniel make a counter-clockwise turn around the outer circulation
of Carlotta, it appears that significant dry air entrainment will
make it difficult for the storm to sustain organized convection.
The NHC forecast indicates Daniel will weaken to a post-tropical
remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate around midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 12.5N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Yellow Evan]

Visually looks absorbed into the monsoon trough.

[cycloneye]

[Xpost]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

While the overall convective activity has increased some this
afternoon, it certainly is not very well organized, and mainly
occuring in a bursting like fashion around Daniel's circulation. The
wind field itself also appears more elongated than 24 h ago,
stretched from SW-to-NE, possibly due to interaction with the larger
monsoonal flow. This elongated structure is also seen on a recent
scatterometer pass. The subjective and objective intensity guidance
continues to suggest the current intensity remains 35 kt.

Daniel appears to have started its northeastward motion in earnest,
with the estimated motion at 50/7-kt. This motion is forecast to
continue over the next day or so as it remains embedded in the
southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Carlotta. As that
tropical storm passes by Daniel to the north, the model guidance
shows Daniel being captured by Carlotta's larger cyclonic flow with
a turn north and northwestward before it opens up into a trough. The
NHC track forecast has not deviated much from the prior forecast,
once again close to the multi-model consensus.

Vertical wind shear has subsided over Daniel today, but the current
elongated structure and bursting convection does not really argue
for much in the way of intensification. Like the past few cycles,
the NHC intensity forecast shows just a modest peak at 40 kt in 24
h. Mid-level environmental moisture decreases further after that
time, with the global and regional-hurricane models showing
convection fizzling and ceasing to be organized after 48 h, marking
Daniel's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low should
dissipate entirely during the middle part of this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.4N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
[/Xpost]