ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

As low level clouds are starting to become visible on vis satellite, it looks like there isn’t much of a main center in td4, and is very broad and diffuse. May be just an mlc. However, there’s a notable eddy revolving around the northern side of the circulation. I’m wondering if this will eventually become the actual llc and become co-located with the mlc as it catches up from the south.

[xironman]

Back over the ocean, should be an interesting flight this afternoon.

[Nimbus]

Back over the ocean, should be an interesting flight this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/5ryCIyn.gif

That was coming in near the Bay of Pigs earlier so tracking WNW.
Should start picking up convection by tonight.
Might pass near 24N -84W as a benchmark.

[bythetrack]

Sebring Fla. here, nice steady rain band for the last half hour. Today should give us quite a bit more insight into this Cluster F . Everyone stay safe .

[chaser1]

Back over the ocean, should be an interesting flight this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/5ryCIyn.gif

Perhaps. I can't help but think that might either be a LLC vort that'll simply continue to rotate around the left side of the broader mid level now which forward motion may have slowed down. That or a spit out LLC vort with new center attempting to develop under the convective canopy

[Frank P]

Yeah I agree looks like a llc vort to me as well

[DunedinDave]

So confused. Everyone saying the center moving north of the islands but all the heavy storms are some 50 miles south of Cuba. Should tbis system even be qualified as a depression? Just looks like a complete and utter mess.

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone know if there has been a recent ASCAT?

[MississippiWx]

To me, I think the northern vort is poised to take over. Models seem to agree with this as well. The heavy convection south of Cuba is likely being caused by low level convergence on the south side of the broader low and convergence with land. We will see.

[USTropics]

Back over the ocean, should be an interesting flight this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/5ryCIyn.gif

Perhaps. I can't help but think that might either be a LLC vort that'll simply continue to rotate around the left side of the broader mid level now which forward motion may have slowed down. That or a spit out LLC vort with new center attempting to develop under the convective canopy

This is what I'm starting to see as well. The frame below was from about 3 hours ago. We still have our general upper-level rotation outlined here in yellow and elongated, with our MLC roughly outlined in pink. I've outlined what started out as a mesovort in green that was generally rotating around the periphery of the MLC:


Here is the full 200 frame animation for this:


Since then, some convection has started to build and this looks like its becoming our dominant LLC:

[tropicwatch]

Back over the ocean, should be an interesting flight this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/5ryCIyn.gif

AF rescheduled will not take of until about 5 central time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Until this gets sorted out, it's not going to be developing into anything stronger. Just goes to show...as perfect as conditions might be, you have to have the right seed for it to sprout

[Jr0d]

Gusts to 45 mph have been reported at Naval Air Station Key West at Boca Chica(a few miles east of Key West, and the weather ons at Key West Airport)

While the wind is lighter currently as we are between squalls, they are certainly bringing significant gusts. Key West, Boca Chica and Marathon have all reported wind gusts of 40 mph+. Funny because the official forecast calls for gusts up to 30 mph.

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNQX.html

[ElectricStorm]

It's going to take quite a while to get going based on it's current state I think. Will probably ramp up shortly before landfall. I'm still expecting around 60-70kts at landfall but I doubt we see anything much stronger than that.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This could be why it is having problems...lots of low level dry air

[cheezyWXguy]

Back over the ocean, should be an interesting flight this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/5ryCIyn.gif

Perhaps. I can't help but think that might either be a LLC vort that'll simply continue to rotate around the left side of the broader mid level now which forward motion may have slowed down. That or a spit out LLC vort with new center attempting to develop under the convective canopy

This is what I'm starting to see as well. The frame below was from about 3 hours ago. We still have our general upper-level rotation outlined here in yellow and elongated, with our MLC roughly outlined in pink. I've outlined what started out as a mesovort in green that was generally rotating around the periphery of the MLC:
https://i.imgur.com/AsF7ryk.png

Here is the full 200 frame animation for this:
https://i.imgur.com/NsMz8pX.gif

Since then, some convection has started to build and this looks like its becoming our dominant LLC:
https://i.imgur.com/3htY10J.gif

Yep. You can see that the convection south of Cuba is starting to behave less as a distinct entity and instead is getting pulled up toward the vort. I imagine the vort will continue to revolve around the mlc/gyre-like feature until they become co-located

[skillz305]

Could the models shift back east with this possible rotation being NE of the consensus center?

[otowntiger]

This could be why it is having problems...lots of low level dry air

https://i.imgur.com/1e3JmLO.gif

Yep- unimpressive mess pretty much as it’s been its whole life. Intensification will be delayed with this current structure.

[Emmett_Brown]

TD4 is one of those slow burn development processes; if this storm was in open ocean, they might not have declared it a depression just yet, since the center is clearly still in the formation stages. A fast moving band of showers passed by me in Sarasota an hour or so ago. It had some lightning, and a very chilly (relatively speaking) downdraft. So there is still is a lot of dry air aloft.

[Stormlover70]

TD4 is one of those slow burn development processes; if this storm was in open ocean, they might not have declared it a depression just yet, since the center is clearly still in the formation stages. A fast moving band of showers passed by me in Sarasota an hour or so ago. It had some lightning, and a very chilly (relatively speaking) downdraft. So there is still is a lot of dry air aloft.

same here. I am more concerned about tornado threat. Even a messy lopsided system can cause issues. Watching here in New port richey...