ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

I’ve seen some ugly systems before. This is up there as one of the ugliest for sure.

I have seen so many ugly storms in that area, don’t think this one even makes the Top 10. This is still a TD, I have seen tropical storms look just like Future Debby and have max winds of 50-60 mph.

[AnnularCane]

You guys are so harsh.

[Jr0d]

I’ve seen some ugly systems before. This is up there as one of the ugliest for sure.

I have seen way worse.

In 24 hours this will look much much healthier.

[Stormlover70]

Looks like the new center is trying to fire sw of the keys.

[Jr0d]

NAS Key West, Boca Chica just reported a gust of 49 mph, (sustained 32 mph), while Marathon had gusts to 47 mph.

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNQX.html

While the bands/squalls are still sporadic and relatively widely scattered, this is the most intense depression I have ever seen in terms of consistent wind gusts.

[IcyTundra]

It’s a TD it’s not supposed to look good.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It’s a TD it’s not supposed to look good.

I don't even think it looks bad. We're clearly seeing spiral banding developing on all quadrants. It's obviously missing an inner core and a vigorous LLC. But the structure is there to take off once those two develops.

[cheezyWXguy]

Clearly trying to tighten up on satellite and radar, but as others have said it will likely be a gradual process over the next 24 hours. Faster afterward until landfall. I suspect the comments about this being ugly will slow down overnight tonight

[Jr0d]

The Sand Key lighthouse(about 8 miles south of Key West), has reported 1 minute sustained winds of 35 kts. This is well east of where the center is apparently consolidating, but it might be enough to justify the upgrade to Tropical Storm Debby.

[robbielyn]

levi’s video is up for today

[WaveBreaking]

LLC starting to wobble SW.

[NDG]

This could be why it is having problems...lots of low level dry air

https://i.imgur.com/1e3JmLO.gif

This is moisture content way up into the ULs of the atmosphere which does not affect tropical systems as much as mid to low level dry air.

Here's a better WV loop to go by, TD 4 is in a fairly moist environment, dry air is from its CoC.



Confirmed by Key West's sounding from this morning, a very moist saturated column of air from the surface to the mid levels, even ULs are fairly moist.

[zzzh]

ASCAT from a few hours ago showed a pretty good structure with 30kt wind. Should be a TS in the next advisory.

[NDG]

What happened to the recon, it got canceled or re-scheduled for later today?

[OuterBanker]

I'm not sure what others are seeing, but I see a cdo forming over the llc. Becoming more symmetrical, large size and a potential hurricane.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not sure what others are seeing, but I see a cdo forming over the llc. Becoming more symmetrical, large size and a potential hurricane.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

I could see this getting to hurricane status by landfall. Tight little core seems to be trying to form under that ball of convection. Radar velocities increasing in that location and banding features starting to become evident

[stormhunter7]

a ship reporting 1008mb. or 29.77in. Lower than two pm advisory. says 50 miles from center. no wind report

[BobHarlem]

I'm not sure what others are seeing, but I see a cdo forming over the llc. Becoming more symmetrical, large size and a potential hurricane.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

I could see this getting to hurricane status by landfall. Tight little core seems to be trying to form under that ball of convection. Radar velocities increasing in that location and banding features starting to become evident

Yeah the wide view structure envelope is very round, almost wpac developing typhoon like, it's just a matter of time here.

[aspen]

What happened to the recon, it got canceled or re-scheduled for later today?

Moved to 6pm I believe.

[stormhunter7]

What happened to the recon, it got canceled or re-scheduled for later today?

Moved to 6pm I believe.

REMARK: THE TEAL 71 MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 24-063 HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A 04/0000Z FIX MISSION WITH AN ADJUSTED TAKEOFF
TIME OF 03/2200Z.