ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nuno]

1012mb here in west Dade and we are quite far from it.

[MetroMike]

What happened to the recon, it got canceled or re-scheduled for later today?

Moved to 6pm I believe.

Thats due to the close proximity of the Cuba coast. Would require more permissions to fly near there.

[stormhunter7]

new ship report 40 miles from center 29.73in

23.20n -83.30w from center 39mi heading 279 wind from 270 at 20.0 kts

[NDG]

I know the NHC don't like to follow these Eddies/LLCs going around a bigger gyre but their cyclonic turn this took is very interesting, could very well become the main CoC if it aligns with the bigger circulation in the mid levels.

[beachnut]

Been getting some outer rain bands in Cape Coral/Ft Myers over the last hour

[KirbyDude25]

new ship report 40 miles from center 29.73in

23.20n -83.30w from center 39mi heading 279 wind from 270 at 20.0 kts

That's roughly 1006.8 mb, which is a bit more than 2 mb deeper than the 2 PM intermediate (and that doesn't take into account that it's probably a bit deeper at the center). I agree with other users here that this might see an upgrade at 5 PM.

[Nimbus]

new ship report 40 miles from center 29.73in

23.20n -83.30w from center 39mi heading 279 wind from 270 at 20.0 kts

That 5 mb between the ship and Dade county just verifies its a broad system.
Central pressure should be dropping between passes when recon gets there tonight to take fixes.

[stormhunter7]

[quote="NDG"]I know the NHC don't like to follow these Eddies/LLCs going around a bigger gyre but their cyclonic turn this took is very interesting, could very well become the main CoC if it aligns with the bigger circulation in the mid levels.

Feeling confident we have a new center. If you go back to last night and follow level center on Shortwave imagery... clearly see this morning as it approached Havana, it dissipates and the low over gulf/straight begin to take over as it roated off Cuba and then around and now has deep convection with it. When recon arrives in a little bit, I suspect this will be area of TS Debby being named.

[LandoWill]

So based on now being off cuba, are models running on the proper location or is the cone going to shift more west?

[Frank P]

Looking at sat loops system appears to be heading just north of due west.

[OuterBanker]

What happened to the recon, it got canceled or re-scheduled for later today?

Moved to 6pm I believe.

REMARK: THE TEAL 71 MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 24-063 HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A 04/0000Z FIX MISSION WITH AN ADJUSTED TAKEOFF
TIME OF 03/2200Z.

22:00z - 5 = 17:00 dst 5pm eastern

[OuterBanker]

OOps -4 dst 6pm easterm (zulu does not move like dst)

[FLLurker32]

I know the NHC don't like to follow these Eddies/LLCs going around a bigger gyre but their cyclonic turn this took is very interesting, could very well become the main CoC if it aligns with the bigger circulation in the mid levels.

https://i.imgur.com/c0isOZ0.gif

Levi mentioned this in his most recent video, as well as the possibility that the convection south of Cuba could help pull it a little to the west. Looks like that could be happening in this clip you just posted.

[Nimbus]

So based on now being off cuba, are models running on the proper location or is the cone going to shift more west?

Should be moving NW now following the models.
They may shift the track west a little but still should track inside 24N -84W.
If it goes further west than that in the short term there is something else going on there..

[NDG]

Saved 3.5 hr Radar loop of the circulation NW of Havana.

[StPeteMike]

While the LLC seems to be moving west, I don’t think that will last too much longer. My guess, it was correcting itself to be closer or under the MLC, which is moving more north than the LLC. We should see it tuck itself under the mid-level and continue its NW movement later this evening/tonight.

[sittingduck]

In a decent feeder band here in Venice right now. Lots of sideways rain and gusty

[stormhunter7]

two ships with 29.73in. 1006MB?

[Stormlover70]

My joint pain is as bad if not worse than when Irma came by here. I hope Debby behaves......

[hipshot]

I'm not sure what others are seeing, but I see a cdo forming over the llc. Becoming more symmetrical, large size and a potential hurricane.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

I see the same thing as you but I'm just an amateur weather geek. But...the whole swirl is huge and if it comes together, we could have a
nasty storm in the GOM.