Zonacane wrote:Steve wrote:Zonacane wrote:That assumes the minimum definition for RI is met until the storm makes landfall. Given record-breaking SST and a perfect upper-level environment, I fear that would be on the low side.
We were discussing in the models thread earlier. Lowest I can find is NAM 3km gets it to 983 and NAM 3km has twice (I think Harvey and maybe Idalia) gone sub 900 for comedy sake. So if it’s the lowest pressure you have to correct the bias. That doesn’t mean that if randomly it stalled out or pulled west of 84 and sat over the Gulf it couldn’t get stronger. But if it’s heading into Taylor or Dixie Counties, Cat 3 is the upper limit for anything in recorded weather history. Again we had that last year, 74 years ago in 1950 and 128 years ago with the Cedar Key storm. Most indications are that it’s going to landfall around there. If it’s farther west say Franklin, Gulf or Bay County it’s a different outcome.
The storm is outperforming the short-term intensity guidance. Climatology is nice and all, but is not a solid predictor of Debby's intensity at landfall. Again, record SST and a pristine upper-level environment are a bad combination and suggest this storm is capable of significant overperformance of your priors.
Yeah I said a few pages ago that there are always firsts. But I think caution rooted in reality of what we know has come before, which admittedly is a small sample in time, is the most prudent. But to be fair to me I already said i thought the ceiling was cat 2 which is significantly above what any intensify model or the pros at NHC has but threw in the caveat of a stall or move farther west is a different ballgame.
#Bust #BustingBadly
