ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I think Recon will find 55 kt FL/997 extrap

So far lowest is between 1005 and 1004 from the two planes.

[Zonacane]

"step 1" is not finished. The center is elongated N to S. That is what recon is finding. A large area of pressure down to 1005mb. You aren't going to see much in the way of pressure falls until the center tightens up

Step 1 is a closed circulation.

Not that I am going to argue with you...but "structure" means structure to allow deepening. It does not as of now have that. To start to deepen it needs a tight center.

This is an interesting case, because based on the CIMMS pass earlier it looks like the issue is the MLC isn't stacked yet, but cyan rings don't lie.

[Steve]

The Gulf this time of year I write of no possibilities!!! I mean none!

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

Hammy was Rabbit and John C shows up every now and then. Viva the 1990’s.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Step 1 is a closed circulation.

Not that I am going to argue with you...but "structure" means structure to allow deepening. It does not as of now have that. To start to deepen it needs a tight center.

That seems to be occurring as we speak

It's been getting better organized all day, but it isn't there yet. Recon can barely find TS force winds as of now. I think some people here are used to seeing storms blow up every time...and that is the exception not the rule. Not every cyclone RIs

[Nimbus]

I think Recon will find 55 kt FL/997 extrap

So far lowest is between 1005 and 1004 from the two planes.

https://i.imgur.com/jjTGV7L.png

Once we get a few more passes we will get a better idea of the motion for the model runs and 11PM advisory.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

Hammy was Rabbit and John C shows up every now and then. Viva the 1990’s.

I was there at Central Florida Hurricane...I still have a bookmark for it

[ElectricStorm]

Still looks like it's got a ways to go before we see any meaningful intensification. It's much better than this morning but still pretty elongated. I think by this time tomorrow it'll start to get going on approach to landfall. Low end Cat 1 landfall still appears on track IMO

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Chiming in as another old schooler from Palm Beach Post and Central FL Hurricane Center from the 90's! I moved from eastern NC to Tampa Bay in 1999 and I've been here ever since. -Not on the barrier island any more though. I'm still near the coast, but up on a hill in Clearwater. (In the 90's I went by the name Miss B. Haven.)

It's great to see all the old familiar names come back each year! I remember when some of the "boys" were in high school, then went on to college, and now are pro mets! Definitely feeling older these days!

Until Debby gets past my latitude, I don't trust a sudden right hand turn, as too many storms have unexpectedly done that over the years! Most notably, Charley. Fingers crossed that Tampa Bay's invisibility shield holds up for another year!

[wzrgirl1]

The Gulf this time of year I write of no possibilities!!! I mean none!

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

I have been here 20 years.

[toad strangler]

Watch Levi Cowans latest video. He doesn’t see RI with Debby pre FL landfall. He kept mentioning a Cat 1 likely scenario. Albeit into a part of the FL Gulf Coast that is very susceptible to surge.

[caneman]

Not that I am going to argue with you...but "structure" means structure to allow deepening. It does not as of now have that. To start to deepen it needs a tight center.

That seems to be occurring as we speak

It's been getting better organized all day, but it isn't there yet. Recon can barely find TS force winds as of now. I think some people here are used to seeing storms blow up every time...and that is the exception not the rule. Not every cyclone RIs

Off course its a process. I think most people understand that.

[floridasun]

we here got strong rainband by miami airport area other coming from key biscayne area moving nw

[DunedinDave]

Chiming in as another old schooler from Palm Beach Post and Central FL Hurricane Center from the 90's! I moved from eastern NC to Tampa Bay in 1999 and I've been here ever since. -Not on the barrier island any more though. I'm still near the coast, but up on a hill in Clearwater. (In the 90's I went by the name Miss B. Haven.)

It's great to see all the old familiar names come back each year! I remember when some of the "boys" were in high school, then went on to college, and now are pro mets! Definitely feeling older these days!

Until Debby gets past my latitude, I don't trust a sudden right hand turn, as too many storms have unexpectedly done that over the years! Most notably, Charley. Fingers crossed that Tampa Bay's invisibility shield holds up for another year!

Amazing how Tampa Bay keeps dodging bullets. I’ve never seen a city have more NHC tracks go right over their city at the 48-72 hour mark only to have it changed and go the other direction the last minute. A world record like I’ve never seen.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Chiming in as another old schooler from Palm Beach Post and Central FL Hurricane Center from the 90's! I moved from eastern NC to Tampa Bay in 1999 and I've been here ever since. -Not on the barrier island any more though. I'm still near the coast, but up on a hill in Clearwater. (In the 90's I went by the name Miss B. Haven.)

It's great to see all the old familiar names come back each year! I remember when some of the "boys" were in high school, then went on to college, and now are pro mets! Definitely feeling older these days!

Until Debby gets past my latitude, I don't trust a sudden right hand turn, as too many storms have unexpectedly done that over the years! Most notably, Charley. Fingers crossed that Tampa Bay's invisibility shield holds up for another year!

Amazing how Tampa Bay keeps dodging bullets. I’ve never seen a city have more NHC tracks go right over their city at the 48-72 hour mark only to have it changed and go the other direction the last minute. A world record like I’ve never seen.

Unfortunately only adds complacency for the day Tampa Bay isn't able to dodge one.

[Steve]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

Hammy was Rabbit and John C shows up every now and then. Viva the 1990’s.

I was there at Central Florida Hurricane...I still have a bookmark for it

Yeah Scott and Cycloneye too. He’s why I came here. I love that Puerto Rican on the level I love me some Jose Alvarado. NAMs ought to be rolling in and early guidance so I want to see what all that’s got to say and will comment on models thread if anything is notable to me

[jlauderdal]

we here got strong rainband by miami airport area other coming from key biscayne area moving nw

We have a band sitting on top of us and more coming from your direction.

[eastcoastFL]

we here got strong rainband by miami airport area other coming from key biscayne area moving nw

We have a band sitting on top of us and more coming from your direction.

They’ve been coming through here in Martin county on and off all day. The last one was the heaviest so far. Seems the squally weather will continue through tomorrow Evening unless track changes.

[Emmett_Brown]

At least for now, recon is finding the storm force winds are a good distance NE of the center, which explains why the FL Keys saw gusty conditions today. Winds are light near the center for now.

[HurricaneBelle]

we here got strong rainband by miami airport area other coming from key biscayne area moving nw

All the rainbands are dying out when they reach the Tampa Bay area, but that changes tomorrow

[Jr0d]

It's windy here in the lower Keys. Gusting over 40 mph again, I can even hear the stronger gusts now. Some how we have missed most of the squalls so far, the ones that have come through have been short lived.

Debbie almost looks split on the satellite and radar with the vortex around 24N we have been watching all day and the feature near 25.5N...not unusual for a developing system but something that might be helping prevent rapid organization and intensification for the time

Despite the center now being due West of me, I would bet we haven't seen the worst for this area.