ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/xomHtv2.png

Rumors of a loose gradient have been highly exaggerated. 1000.5 to 1007 over like 10 n mi

True, but there is no wind shift near the pressure min, suggesting this storm is not stacked. Explains why that tighter inner core that looked to be forming on radar dissipated. Probably will see another attempt during dmax though

[cycloneye]

AF VDM at 1001 mbs.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042024
A. 04/01:50:50Z
B. 24.12 deg N 083.38 deg W
C. 925 mb 693 m
D. EXTRAP 1001 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 33 kt
I. 046 deg 80 nm 01:24:30Z
J. 137 deg 41 kt
K. 046 deg 80 nm 01:24:30Z
L. 14 kt
M. 220 deg 16 nm 01:57:30Z
N. 277 deg 16 kt
O. 194 deg 6 nm 01:54:00Z
P. 22 C / 758 m
Q. 23 C / 761 m
R. 20 C / NA
S. 12345 / 9
T. 0.02 / 4 nm
U. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 046 / 80 NM 01:24:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

[ConvergenceZone]

Watch Levi Cowans latest video. He doesn’t see RI with Debby pre FL landfall. He kept mentioning a Cat 1 likely scenario. Albeit into a part of the FL Gulf Coast that is very susceptible to surge.

And Levi has been incredibly accurate in the past. Incredibly knowledgeable he is. If he's going Cat 1, then so am I am. Mad respect to him!

[jlauderdal]

I have been here 20 years.

i came here 2003. I hv always enjoyed the long timers posts. I’ve learned so much!

I came here early as well. There was a weather forum I belonged to before this one where people like Sanibel and few other old timers hanged out. But I can't remember the name of the weather board.

Palm Beach Post had a board back when the navy nogaps model was used

[ConvergenceZone]

i came here 2003. I hv always enjoyed the long timers posts. I’ve learned so much!

I came here early as well. There was a weather forum I belonged to before this one where people like Sanibel and few other old timers hanged out. But I can't remember the name of the weather board.

Palm Beach Post had a board back when the navy nogaps model was used

That may have been the one. Gosh I just can't remember the name of it lol.

[Hurricane2022]

Friendly reminder: The order of operations for a developing tropical storm is structure----->pressure falls--------> wind increase. Step 1 is finished, just a matter of time for pressure falls and wind increases.

Well so now we are on Step II..

[AtlanticWind]

Had some incredibly loud lightning strikes during band that moved thru (with tornado warning)
here in plantation (western ft.lauderdale)

[Stormlover70]

I came here early as well. There was a weather forum I belonged to before this one where people like Sanibel and few other old timers hanged out. But I can't remember the name of the weather board.

Palm Beach Post had a board back when the navy nogaps model was used

anyone remember barometer Bob. I interviewed him for Storm2k.org.

That may have been the one. Gosh I just can't remember the name of it lol.

[chaser1]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

Hammy was Rabbit and John C shows up every now and then. Viva the 1990’s.

I was there at Central Florida Hurricane...I still have a bookmark for it

it's a reunion lol. I was there too and thanks for mentioning the book mark, Scott. I still have it as well! Now you all are gonna make me have to log in just to remind myself how far back that was

[redingtonbeach]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

Hammy was Rabbit and John C shows up every now and then. Viva the 1990’s.

I was a moderator at CFHC for years! John’s an amazing guy!

[redingtonbeach]

We have a band sitting on top of us and more coming from your direction.

They’ve been coming through here in Martin county on and off all day. The last one was the heaviest so far. Seems the squally weather will continue through tomorrow Evening unless track changes.

We are under a tornado warning now, frisky feeder band.

Lots of F0’s around Lauderdale in the last squall line. Some damage reported.

[eastcoastFL]

We have a band sitting on top of us and more coming from your direction.

They’ve been coming through here in Martin county on and off all day. The last one was the heaviest so far. Seems the squally weather will continue through tomorrow Evening unless track changes.

We are under a tornado warning now, frisky feeder band.

Hoping it’s a one off and it won’t be a night of endless tornado warnings for you. There’s some pretty nasty bands on radar coming through your area tonight.

[CronkPSU]

https://i.imgur.com/L07lTdU.png

That seems to be a lot more NNW than forecast, right?

[floridasun]

i look at sat pic i see good banding both north and south side maybe stronger at 11pm

[Jr0d]

73 mph gust at port evetglades in fort lauderdale. I guess thats why they call it the dirty side.

Any chance that wind gust was possibly from the earlier tornado warning, Or do you think it was straight line winds?

Despite the lack of significant bands in the Key West area, we are still getting gusts almost to 50 mph. It will make for a really interesting if we get a rain band to 'train' over us later tonight or tomorrow morning but so far the Key West 'bubble' seems to be in effect.

[chaser1]

I posted this nifty storm surge prediction tool here a couple years ago a few days before Ian hit us. We live on the water not far from an inlet to the Caloosahatchee River. Even though we were likely going to my dad's house on higher ground this surge tool was one of the deciding factors. This was before the storm took it's right-hand turn into us, the surge was actually worse. We were very fortunate as the water came right up to about 1" from going under the doors. Many people in our neighborhood were not so lucky. I'm using the Cera surge tool right now, so far we're good.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

Nice link! Thanks

[eastcoastFL]

I don’t know if they updated this or there’s something wrong with it, but they usually have the storm track as an overlay.

SFWMD radar is usually my favorite to use during these storms but that feature seems to be missing.



https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on recon data, I'd go with 40 knots, MSLP of 1002mb.

[weeniepatrol]

Air Force now shows 1006 on this pass. bizarre

[chaser1]

i came here 2003. I hv always enjoyed the long timers posts. I’ve learned so much!

I came here early as well. There was a weather forum I belonged to before this one where people like Sanibel and few other old timers hanged out. But I can't remember the name of the weather board.

Palm Beach Post had a board back when the navy nogaps model was used

NOGAPS , you're really dating yourself