ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[southmdwatcher]

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[ChrisH-UK]

A 1 hour loop of Debby.

[GCANE]

Radar looks like she is trying to close off an eyewall.
A possible feeder band may be forming from a 7500 CAPE ridge to her west.
A good VHT is firing just north of the CoC.
In the clear 355K PV with Updraft Anti-cyclone overhead.

[Nimbus]

Just passed near buoy 42026 (25.171 N 83.475)
Winds only about 20 knots in the eastern side there.
Pressure still about 1000 MB.
Most of the heavy squalls have been quite far from the center though.

We got lucky Debby traveled over the island land masses which left her with a broad shallow pressure gradient that is slow to build lift.
Has time to organize better before landfall though.

[mantis83]

this storm should at least knock down those warm waters some in the gulf, depleting energy from future storms, if any form, so there's some good news......

[MetsIslesNoles]

This is reminding me of 2016’s Hermine. Similar intensity and impacts except Debby is expected to move much slower.

Good news: They’ve trimmed a lot of trees. And the recovery plan is far superior to anything in 2016.
Bad news: It’s still not enough.

It’ll be interesting to see if we sustained hurricane force winds here for the first time. If so, we’re in for a mess.

[sponger]

this storm should at least knock down those warm waters some in the gulf, depleting energy from future storms, if any form, so there's some good news......

Definitely. 89 degrees is a loaded shotgun that needed to be uncocked.

[sponger]

Um, I'm not so sure? Woke up and decided to take a peek. I have to be honest but.... our baby girl is, well.... looking rather butt-ugly if you ask me North-south stretched convection and a COC that's looking like Captain Hook way on its western edge of convection. There's got to be some level of dry air still being advected into its core. At least that's what I'm seeing. Okay, back to bed. I'm sure she'll look far better on visible in the morning.

Agreed! Quite a mess! Now back to bed....

[GCANE]

Looks like radar has the CoC 19 miles east of forecast track

[sponger]

Um, I'm not so sure? Woke up and decided to take a peek. I have to be honest but.... our baby girl is, well.... looking rather butt-ugly if you ask me North-south stretched convection and a COC that's looking like Captain Hook way on its western edge of convection. There's got to be some level of dry air still being advected into its core. At least that's what I'm seeing. Okay, back to bed. I'm sure she'll look far better on visible in the morning.

Agreed! Quite a mess! Now back to bed....

[Nimbus]

Looks like radar has the CoC 19 miles east of forecast track

Thats why I thought Tampa bay might be close enough to get some serious squalls like Houston did with Beryl, but no time to organize now. If Debby stalls over water later that may be a different story.

[xironman]

this storm should at least knock down those warm waters some in the gulf, depleting energy from future storms, if any form, so there's some good news......

Not nearly strong enough

[GCANE]

Winds have increased to 50 MPH as of the 5 AM advisory.

[GCANE]

Looks like radar has the CoC 19 miles east of forecast track

Thats why I thought Tampa bay might be close enough to get some serious squalls like Houston did with Beryl, but no time to organize now. If Debby stalls over water later that may be a different story.

Moderate helicity over a large portion of central FL.
Any bands that come on shore could create tornadoes.

[aspen]

Still looks really rough this morning. I think it’s safe to say that any substantial RI is off the table, unless this does so at the very last minute like Beryl.

[GCANE]

20" rain now forecast for Savannah and surroundings

[caneman]

Um, I'm not so sure? Woke up and decided to take a peek. I have to be honest but.... our baby girl is, well.... looking rather butt-ugly if you ask me North-south stretched convection and a COC that's looking like Captain Hook way on its western edge of convection. There's got to be some level of dry air still being advected into its core. At least that's what I'm seeing. Okay, back to bed. I'm sure she'll look far better on visible in the morning.

Just got up.
I see that now. It sure looked alot better around 2 am.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1820055804982047165

[REDHurricane]

Still clearly struggling to mix out all that dry air, let's see to what degree convection resumes building over the western edge though over the next ~6 hours though

[GCANE]

Watching an area south of Tampa Bay for tornadoes.
STP and Helicity are increasing.