ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Watching an area south of Tampa Bay for tornadoes.
STP and Helicity are increasing.

tornado warning just went up in inland Collier County

[GCANE]

Watching an area south of Tampa Bay for tornadoes.
STP and Helicity are increasing.

tornado warning just went up in inland Collier County

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1820057288536952860

[tropicwatch]

Some people are going to be using a canoe to get to work. 10-20 inches of rain is forecast for some area's in Debby's path.

[TBwx1968]

Anyone feel that there is the possibility of the center getting pulled "relocated" to the right, with all the convection being on that general side?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1820059738429636990

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like there is some slight shear (?) putting Debby in check this morning... Good news to the Big Bend area

[caneman]

Anyone feel that there is the possibility of the center getting pulled "relocated" to the right, with all the convection being on that general side?

Looks the same to me just void of convection in the western flank. However, I see no further west movement

[REDHurricane]

Anyone feel that there is the possibility of the center getting pulled "relocated" to the right, with all the convection being on that general side?

It's possible, though to me it already looks like convection might already be trying to sneak back around to the west just a little bit

[xironman]

It has only been over water for about 20 hrs. Definitely tilted, the NOAA plane missed west on the first pass. Still no inner core, if it forms one it could take off.

[TBwx1968]

UP TO 60 MPH


...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If one believes the GFS, Debby should have an actual inner core in about 6-8 hours.

[Woofde]

UP TO 60 MPH


...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

I can definitely see why they pulled the trigger with the data. That said, from a structure perspective Debby is rather unimpressive. I'm not seeing a tight pressure gradient, and that western half of the storm is straight up anemic.

That could change if it can manage to rotate some convection around the core. For now, it's not primed to go boom. Though, it could easily still brute force its way to hurricane status on that East side.

[xironman]

Radar hinting at convection starting to wrap around the north, aligns with the new hot tower that blew up there.

[toad strangler]

There is a fair amount of dry air on the models west and increasing as Debby moves N. It remains to be seen if this starts filtering into the COC. This would be an inhibitor of RI but perhaps not of gradual strengthening.

[NDG]

I have to admit I didn't see the light SW shear that affected Debby during the night tilting its circulation and not being able to sustain a core.

[MGC]

Looks like Debby is building an eyewall this morning. Dry air on the west side of the cyclone and some westerly shear should limit any explosive RI. Still an excellent chance at hurricane intensity at landfall approaching Cat-2......MGC

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1820078203593171025

[NDG]

Saved radar loop.
Definitely the worst of Debby will be very close to the Tampa Bay area today.

[underthwx]

Good morning yall.....all yall in the path of this cyclone keep safe....I wish it were not happening...

[FLpanhandle91]

Inner-core is quickly organizing, at least at the mid-levels.