Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean (0/0)

[LadyBug72]

Ladybug72 that would be the CMC, but at this range, model track outputs dont mean much, however that being said the ensembles generally agree this one could pose more of a threat to the western gulf ( Mexico, Louisiana, Texas) and could possibly have a pretty favorable environment as it gets into the western caribbean in about 7 days

Thank you. I saw it on Tropical Tidbits for the 12Z GFS run. It may have been a different storm or maybe I wasn’t looking at the run right or something.

[CFLHurricane]

This wave is looking juicy on the MMIC-TPW with a healthy amount of spin. Glad y’all are already into it.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is back with development again, system develops near Nicaragua and then crosses the yucatan with a NW movement towards texas

[ROCK]

Some of these GFS runs are nasty looking but at 270hrs out way too far out to be concerned yet.

[Tireman4]

[quote="ROCK"]Some of these GFS runs are nasty looking but at 270hrs out way too far out to be concerned yet.[/quote


Agreed. Way too early. Maybe an eyebrow, maybe

[Stratton23]

00z CMC through day 4-5 already has a developing TC in the western caribbean, thats not a lot of time from now, this could catch folks off guard potentially

[IcyTundra]

00z CMC through day 4-5 already has a developing TC in the western caribbean, thats not a lot of time from now, this could catch folks off guard potentially

NHC doesn't have this wave in their Tropical Weather Outlook yet but I wouldn't be surprised if they begin mentioning it soon. Decent support from the EPS and GEPS with the operational GFS alternating between development and no development on every other run it seems.

[Stratton23]

Icytundra doesnt surprise me, the wave might interact with SA as it passes by which is why the GFS keeps flip flopping

[Stratton23]

00z EPS is really liking this wave now, much more aggressive than 12z

[colbroe]

This wave now has a 1011 low pressure attached to it a few hundred miles East of the islands.
Could be seeing a lemon attached very soon.

[Hurricane2022]

1. East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next week
as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the
Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and
western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

1. East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next week
as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the
Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and
western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[toad strangler]

The ominous theme continues. West, west, west.

[underthwx]

The ominous theme continues. West, west, west.

Perish tha thought....way too early tho...

[tropicwatch]

1. East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next week
as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the
Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and
western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/2woFwBh.png

Looked at the vorticity, convection and upper level conditions, all look pretty good. Would expect development chances to increase fairly quickly.

[underthwx]

Some of these GFS runs are nasty looking but at 270hrs out way too far out to be concerned yet.

sup Rock!.....just out of curiosity...what does the gfs runs show?....hopefully whatever form it takes...if any will cross over to the pacific...and not affect anyone...im still dealing with the aftermath of beryl...now our friends to the east are dealing with Debby...peace out rock...

[cycloneye]

Some turning of the clouds and is moving fast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Strong support from the EPS for development of this system. Surprised the operational isn't showing it yet.

[underthwx]

Some turning of the clouds and is moving fast.

https://i.imgur.com/9zMi42j.gif

good morning Luis....this wave is definitely moving fast....can you share your thoughts about this wave?....its busy here with Debby affecting Florida and points north...but its hurricane season...

[ROCK]

Some of these GFS runs are nasty looking but at 270hrs out way too far out to be concerned yet.

sup Rock!.....just out of curiosity...what does the gfs runs show?....hopefully whatever form it takes...if any will cross over to the pacific...and not affect anyone...im still dealing with the aftermath of beryl...now our friends to the east are dealing with Debby...peace out rock...

Nah it was showing some NO to Hou to Upper Mexico runs yesterday. CMC just bought on last night into upper MX. Saw some of the EURO Ensembles....it will be an interesting day of model runs. NAVGEM bought on lol on the 6Z today.

The structure looks good but its embedded in some dust. I think if it can shake off some of this stable air it might have a chance to organize.