ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah it still looks to be fighting off some dry air but the circulation looks a good deal more organized on radar than it did last night. No wonder it strengthened some. It looks to be better stacked now, I don’t see as much erratic movement of cells near the center anymore.

[Michele B]

Watching an area south of Tampa Bay for tornadoes.
STP and Helicity are increasing.

tornado warning just went up in inland Collier County

DeSoto County too

[xironman]

There we go, things could get interesting now

[redingtonbeach]

Stunningly as of 9:00 AM Sunday, the University of Florida has yet to cancel Monday’s classes trapping students in the right quadrant of this storm instead of allowing them safe travel home Friday or Saturday like FSU and others did. #EpicFail

[LandoWill]

Stunningly as of 9:00 AM Sunday, the University of Florida has yet to cancel Monday’s classes trapping students in the right quadrant of this storm instead of allowing them safe travel home Friday or Saturday like FSU and others did. #EpicFail

It's Gainesville, they'll get a squall or two, they'll be fine

[Ubuntwo]

An eastward center relocation appears to be ongoing given recon and radar data.

[TBwx1968]

A eastward center relocation appears to be ongoing given recon and radar data.

Not seeing that...Is recon in
the storm currently?

[REDHurricane]

There we go, things could get interesting now

https://i.imgur.com/5PVDEu5.gif

A little bit of dry air can only do so much to disrupt an intensifying system that has an otherwise nearly perfect environment to work with, this will likely become a hurricane within the next 6-12 hours or so

[cheezyWXguy]

A eastward center relocation appears to be ongoing given recon and radar data.

Not seeing that...Is recon in
the storm currently?

Yeah recon’s center is a good deal sw of the radar apparent center, but is associated with a broad and very weak wind shift. Going in for another pass shortly.

[GCANE]

5000 CAPE, NW side of Debby, closing in

[ElectricStorm]

Doesn't seem to be aligned with the ULAC so a little bit of westerly shear could be why it's still pulling in dry air. With a little over 24 hours to go before landfall at most, I think the amount of strengthening it can do could be limited overall, though perhaps a little more than previously thought. Maybe a high end Cat 1 intsead of a minimal Cat 1 is possible.

However my main concern continues to be rainfall/flooding. If some of these model runs showing a stall/loop verify this will easily become one of the most destructive storms of the season for the US. Already a (extremely rare) Day 3 High Risk for heavy rainfall from WPC. Hope everyone stays safe.

[gatorcane]

54mph wind gust just reported at St. Petersburg Albert-Whitted airport:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries? ... ourly=true

[NDG]

Inner-core is quickly organizing, at least at the mid-levels.

I'm just going to wait several hours before I say that. Last evening I thought it was but some light shear came along and knocked it out

[toad strangler]

There we go, things could get interesting now

https://i.imgur.com/5PVDEu5.gif

A little bit of dry air can only do so much to disrupt an intensifying system that has an otherwise nearly perfect environment to work with, this will likely become a hurricane within the next 6-12 hours or so

I don’t understand this reasoning. There is a fair amount of dry air to the W and models show it increasing. Question is, does Debby keep it from infiltrating the COC? This could go either way. But don’t dismiss it. This dry air can absolutely keep Debby from flying off the handle. Just have to watch.

[NDG]

Recon showing the LLC is trying to align closer with the ML Circulation.

[Ubuntwo]

A eastward center relocation appears to be ongoing given recon and radar data.

Not seeing that...Is recon in
the storm currently?

Yes.

Notice the lowest extrapolated sfc pressure is displaced from the wind shift/center fix, and instead lines up with a sharp spike in winds and convection. This is also the mid level rotation we see on radar.

[GCANE]

Eye Drop a few miles west of forecast track
Looks a little dry

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 4-1145.png

[cheezyWXguy]

As ubuntwo said, recon finding evidence of center relocation. Wind shift on this pass is a lot closer to the radar apparent center, and it looks like the plane missed it to the west.

[sponger]

Looks to be tightening up. Vastly improved from a few hours ago.

[StormPyrate]

First bands here in Clearwater just came in