Once again, the GFS goes offshore and then comes back to the coast (5th run in a row), this time just S of me (furthest S yet I think) giving me TS wind gusts combined with the very heavy rain probably causing many uprooted trees. I need a generator.
Debby then goes well inland.
ATL: DEBBY - Models
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
GFS believable at 00Z?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=126
Also CMC kind of similar in a way but brings that E storm toward NE Mexico or S TX.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=204
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=126
Also CMC kind of similar in a way but brings that E storm toward NE Mexico or S TX.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=204
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
0Z UKMET: LF slightly E of prior runs in W Big Bend; then to SC GA to SE of Augusta, then E/NE to NE SC, E NC, NC coast, Newfoundland; once again, UKMET moves much more quickly than GFS/Euro and gets to NC by 108…so with this faster move and much more common path, not the huge flood threat of GFS/Euro:
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 83.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2024 0 23.5N 83.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 04.08.2024 12 26.6N 84.1W 1003 45
0000UTC 05.08.2024 24 28.4N 84.3W 1000 46
1200UTC 05.08.2024 36 29.8N 84.2W 1000 39
0000UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.0N 83.6W 1002 34
1200UTC 06.08.2024 60 33.0N 82.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 07.08.2024 72 33.0N 81.6W 996 40
1200UTC 07.08.2024 84 34.0N 79.4W 994 40
0000UTC 08.08.2024 96 34.4N 77.6W 993 39
1200UTC 08.08.2024 108 35.6N 75.4W 995 45
0000UTC 09.08.2024 120 38.9N 73.4W 997 39
1200UTC 09.08.2024 132 41.4N 69.8W 996 43
0000UTC 10.08.2024 144 45.5N 61.7W 997 39
1200UTC 10.08.2024 156 48.9N 50.0W 996 39
0000UTC 11.08.2024 168 52.5N 32.8W 992 39
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 83.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2024 0 23.5N 83.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 04.08.2024 12 26.6N 84.1W 1003 45
0000UTC 05.08.2024 24 28.4N 84.3W 1000 46
1200UTC 05.08.2024 36 29.8N 84.2W 1000 39
0000UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.0N 83.6W 1002 34
1200UTC 06.08.2024 60 33.0N 82.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 07.08.2024 72 33.0N 81.6W 996 40
1200UTC 07.08.2024 84 34.0N 79.4W 994 40
0000UTC 08.08.2024 96 34.4N 77.6W 993 39
1200UTC 08.08.2024 108 35.6N 75.4W 995 45
0000UTC 09.08.2024 120 38.9N 73.4W 997 39
1200UTC 09.08.2024 132 41.4N 69.8W 996 43
0000UTC 10.08.2024 144 45.5N 61.7W 997 39
1200UTC 10.08.2024 156 48.9N 50.0W 996 39
0000UTC 11.08.2024 168 52.5N 32.8W 992 39
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
I don't know what kind of drugs the 00Z GFS model run was on. But that was one heck of a wild ride it just took us on. 
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
ncskywarn wrote:I don't know what kind of drugs the 00Z GFS model run was on. But that was one heck of a wild ride it just took us on.
Fun times
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
0Z Euro: for 1st run since the one from 48 hours ago, the model not surprisingly based on history/climo totally abandoned the come back to lower SC or GA NW move and instead is a more normal from that position NNE move from the ocean to the SC/NC border and then up the E coast to MD followed by a move offshore. It never moves even just W of due N the entire time once out of the Gulf except for it barely doing so hours 96-102.
That leaves only the GFS and the 0Z CMC with the funky trek NW to WNW back into the SE. I’ll be looking for it to also abandon this craziness. Let’s see what the next runs of these models do.
*Corrected to add 0Z CMC and hours 96-102
That leaves only the GFS and the 0Z CMC with the funky trek NW to WNW back into the SE. I’ll be looking for it to also abandon this craziness. Let’s see what the next runs of these models do.
*Corrected to add 0Z CMC and hours 96-102
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Aug 04, 2024 12:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
0Z Euro ensemble mean follows the operational to some extent with a higher % taking the progressive/much more normal route up/near the E coast than any of the prior 4 runs.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
chaser1 wrote:ncskywarn wrote:I don't know what kind of drugs the 00Z GFS model run was on. But that was one heck of a wild ride it just took us on.
Fun times
06z GFS looks over at 00z and says, hold my beer, and brings back Debby for a second swipe at the Big Bend. Debby, the storm so nice she hits you twice.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
GFS shares a crack pipe with HWRF for a couple days then joins rest of models with a east coast runner.
Euro and Icon agree
CMC dies in Ga.
I'll go with the CMC.
Otherwise the entire east coast could deal with flooding.
Euro and Icon agree
CMC dies in Ga.
I'll go with the CMC.
Otherwise the entire east coast could deal with flooding.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
12z Mesoscales - NAM and FV3 depict a more concentric system at landfall. And 985-988mb pressure.
Edit Icon 985ish as well
Edit Icon 985ish as well
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
Take it with a grain of salt, but the 3km NAM shows very gradual intensification until the last 10 or so hours before landfall, where it RIs from an upper 980s TS/C1 to an upper/mid 960s C2/C3 at landfall.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
ICON
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
EURO
GFS, in progress, showing some vorticity issues, maybe a relocation?
GFS, in progress, showing some vorticity issues, maybe a relocation?
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
Rainfall forecast looking really bad.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
GFS brings it back into Georgia as it spins down.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
12Z runs so far: 12Z GFS once again comes back into GA coast from off the water. However, CMC has caved to normalcy and goes NE up the SE coast. JMA/ICON once again both do that, too. Only one ICON had the craziness, yesterday’s 0Z, which went NW for just a short time to landfall between Beaufort and Charleston.
UKMET and Euro still not out yet.
UKMET and Euro still not out yet.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
LarryWx wrote:12Z runs so far: 12Z GFS once again comes back into GA coast from off the water. However, CMC has caved to normalcy and goes NE up the SE coast. JMA/ICON once again both do that, too. Only one ICON had the craziness, yesterday’s 0Z, which went NW for just a short time to landfall between Beaufort and Charleston.
UKMET and Euro still not out yet.
Yeah. Looks like all of them kind of want Debby to temporarily drop ESE when it gets back to the water. GFS won’t back down from the push back west. It thinks the steering collapses and a push back from high pressure in the Atlantic.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80412&fh=6
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models
12Z UKMET has major changes from prior runs:
-much slower movement
-now turns E/ESE to offshore GA/lower SC at a time when 0Z was already well up the NC coast
-while offshore restrengthens and then turns N with landfall at Georgetown, SC
-moves N into E NC
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 84.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 0 26.5N 84.1W 1001 42
0000UTC 05.08.2024 12 28.3N 84.4W 997 51
1200UTC 05.08.2024 24 29.7N 84.1W 996 40
0000UTC 06.08.2024 36 30.8N 83.6W 1000 32
1200UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.9N 82.5W 1000 39
0000UTC 07.08.2024 60 31.8N 81.7W 997 39
1200UTC 07.08.2024 72 31.4N 79.9W 993 47
0000UTC 08.08.2024 84 31.7N 79.0W 990 46
1200UTC 08.08.2024 96 32.2N 79.0W 988 40
0000UTC 09.08.2024 108 32.7N 79.2W 989 39
1200UTC 09.08.2024 120 33.7N 79.2W 993 42
0000UTC 10.08.2024 132 34.1N 79.2W 996 38
1200UTC 10.08.2024 144 35.7N 78.2W 1001 35
0000UTC 11.08.2024 156 36.7N 76.7W 1003 43
1200UTC 11.08.2024 168 37.3N 73.8W 1002 43
-much slower movement
-now turns E/ESE to offshore GA/lower SC at a time when 0Z was already well up the NC coast
-while offshore restrengthens and then turns N with landfall at Georgetown, SC
-moves N into E NC
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 84.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 0 26.5N 84.1W 1001 42
0000UTC 05.08.2024 12 28.3N 84.4W 997 51
1200UTC 05.08.2024 24 29.7N 84.1W 996 40
0000UTC 06.08.2024 36 30.8N 83.6W 1000 32
1200UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.9N 82.5W 1000 39
0000UTC 07.08.2024 60 31.8N 81.7W 997 39
1200UTC 07.08.2024 72 31.4N 79.9W 993 47
0000UTC 08.08.2024 84 31.7N 79.0W 990 46
1200UTC 08.08.2024 96 32.2N 79.0W 988 40
0000UTC 09.08.2024 108 32.7N 79.2W 989 39
1200UTC 09.08.2024 120 33.7N 79.2W 993 42
0000UTC 10.08.2024 132 34.1N 79.2W 996 38
1200UTC 10.08.2024 144 35.7N 78.2W 1001 35
0000UTC 11.08.2024 156 36.7N 76.7W 1003 43
1200UTC 11.08.2024 168 37.3N 73.8W 1002 43
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