ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop


source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1503.125&y=1242.8551025390625&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240704162022&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[ScottNAtlanta]

The local met office here in Atlanta is calling for 10" in central Georgia with 1 to 4 in the Atlanta Metro going from 4 SE to 1 NW

[Beer Belly]

Bouy map:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Debbie may go directly over the West Tampa station. ~100 miles due west of Bayport.

Current:
Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.501N 84.508W
Date: Sun, 4 Aug 2024 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (157°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 80.1 F

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm so glad that the landfall was moved up 6 hours earlier than it was was forecasted late yesterday. It could have been a monster if it had more time over water.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at radar I can’t tell if the center is contracting or if there’s a slight wobble east. But the storms are now extended east to lake O.

[eastcoastFL]

[TampaWxLurker]

Looks like maybe a wobble East.

[aspen]

I'm so glad that the landfall was moved up 6 hours earlier than it was was forecasted late yesterday. It could have been a monster if it had more time over water.

I’m not sure why yesterday’s forecast tracks put landfall in the late morning/early afternoon, because even then, models were converging on a Monday morning landfall.

[IcyTundra]

I'm so glad that the landfall was moved up 6 hours earlier than it was was forecasted late yesterday. It could have been a monster if it had more time over water.

I’m not sure why yesterday’s forecast tracks put landfall in the late morning/early afternoon, because even then, models were converging on a Monday morning landfall.

Some models were showing a landfall around noon tomorrow.

[Nimbus]

Looks like maybe a wobble East.

Wish it were moving a little faster, the surface pressure profile is coming back which means if the center gets under the deeper convection we could see a rapid intensification scenario before landfall. Was it supposed to slow down this soon?

[stormhunter7]

Wobble or a stall due to drier mid level air??? Hmm.

[Poonwalker]

This is going to flood my area. Was worried about getting stuck under the worst bands and that’s what seems to be unfolding with her moving parallel and slowing. Raining nonstop and hard. Long tail on her too.

[cheezyWXguy]

Visible satellite suggests the low levels may be moistening to the southwest of Debby and it looks like a band may be trying to set up in that area. If banding does establish itself I would expect RI to begin shortly after

[StPeteMike]

This is going to flood my area. Was worried about getting stuck under the worst bands and that’s what seems to be unfolding with her moving parallel and slowing. Raining nonstop and hard. Long tail on her too.

Yeah, Tampa Bay will have plenty of rain too a day or two after. I think they’re underestimating the rain totals for Tampa Bay.

[tulum07]

The rain field is getting close to Palm Beach county coast (Delray Beach). Winds are really picking up (35 mph gusts). I hope we get some rain out of this. Bone dry all summer.

[galaxy401]

I'm so glad that the landfall was moved up 6 hours earlier than it was was forecasted late yesterday. It could have been a monster if it had more time over water.

I’m not sure why yesterday’s forecast tracks put landfall in the late morning/early afternoon, because even then, models were converging on a Monday morning landfall.

Some models were showing a landfall around noon tomorrow.

I remember some were saying Debby was already supposed to be inland by today. This was just two days ago too.

[gatorcane]

2000+ power outages reported by Duke Energy in Pinellas County (St Pete/Clearwater) at 11:15AM EST. Duke Energy power outage map tracker:
https://outagemaps.duke-energy.com/#/current-outages/fl
https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2024 ... duke-teco/

[USTropics]

The short term motion is part of the development process, as the LLC and MLC are still co-rotating. Here is a frame from the HWRF model from about 5 hours ago. We can use the wind barbs to determine our MLC (in orange) is displaced to the southeast of our LLC. These have been co-rotating (think Fujiwara but on a mesoscale level) as the LLC begins to deepen:


The 06z HWRF does a pretty good job of capturing this evolution:


Here are 75 frames of radar loop that show mostly the MLC rotating:

[Poonwalker]

This is going to flood my area. Was worried about getting stuck under the worst bands and that’s what seems to be unfolding with her moving parallel and slowing. Raining nonstop and hard. Long tail on her too.

Yeah, Tampa Bay will have plenty of rain too a day or two after. I think they’re underestimating the rain totals for Tampa Bay.

What part of St Pete are you in? Iam up high enough now but there are so many areas that are low near Lake Seminole. I moved from Holiday area where we always had the street flood from the Anclote getting backed up.

[ConvergenceZone]

Storming pretty hard in Tampa right now. Winds picking up as well. Probably just a squall

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYs-SMoyH_k