Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean (0/0)

[underthwx]

Some of these GFS runs are nasty looking but at 270hrs out way too far out to be concerned yet.

sup Rock!.....just out of curiosity...what does the gfs runs show?....hopefully whatever form it takes...if any will cross over to the pacific...and not affect anyone...im still dealing with the aftermath of beryl...now our friends to the east are dealing with Debby...peace out rock...

Nah it was showing some NO to Hou to Upper Mexico runs yesterday. CMC just bought on last night into upper MX. Saw some of the EURO Ensembles....it will be an interesting day of model runs. NAVGEM bought on lol on the 6Z today.

The structure looks good but its embedded in some dust. I think if it can shake off some of this stable air it might have a chance to organize.

...thanks rock....sounds good bro....have an epic day...

[zzzh]

The system also somewhat depends on Debby. If Debby is stronger or stalls in the SE longer, it will weaken the ridge/trades, pull the wave further north and may allow it to develop sooner.

[gatorcane]

Round two for EGOM / FL Big Bend according to the 12Z GFS:

[Stratton23]

CMC misses the trough and goes into Mexico, right now the EPS mostly favors the western gulf, lots of uncertainty with this one

[Stratton23]

GFS follows debby into florida, but CMC misses the trough and goes into Mexico, right now the EPS and Euro Op mostly favor the western gulf, lots of uncertainty with this one

[Wampadawg]

GFS follows debby into florida, but CMC misses the trough and goes into Mexico, right now the EPS and Euro Op mostly favor the western gulf, lots of uncertainty with this one

Yeah a bit early in the sweepstakes

[ChrisH-UK]

Next up, does look like its starting to turn but not much yet in terms of convection.

[weeniepatrol]

ASCAT, about four hours old

[cycloneye]

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms, and earlier satellite wind data showed winds of 30-35
mph just north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for some slow development of this system over
the next week as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph,
crossing the Windward Islands early this week and moving into the
central and western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Nimbus]

Its quite far south so unless it rolls harmlessly into Mexico its probably gulf bound.
GFS takes it across Cuba a little further west and it won't have the island interaction with Hispaniola.

[zzzh]

A bit less active on this EPS run.

[Stratton23]

Im expecting guidance to trend upward as the wave encounters favorable conditions in the western caribbean, pretty typical for guidance to flip flop this early in the game

[Weathertracker96]

If this storms gets stronger faster than anticipated, do you think it could lift north and follow the weakness left by Debby? I saw the 12z GFS today. I know the Euro keeps it south and weak but I imagine if it gets stronger, it would feel the weakness to the north possibly.

[IcyTundra]

If this storms gets stronger faster than anticipated, do you think it could lift north and follow the weakness left by Debby? I saw the 12z GFS today. I know the Euro keeps it south and weak but I imagine if it gets stronger, it would feel the weakness to the north possibly.

Depends how long Debby lingers on the SE US coast. The Euro moves Debby out much quicker than the GFS.

[Stratton23]

Weathertracker96 possible, the CMC is stronger than the GFS as a hurricane, but misses the trough and moves into mexico, lots to watch ahead

[sunnyday]

Is this looking like another Gulf storm?

[Stratton23]

sunnyday it definitely is possible with this one

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms, and earlier satellite wind data showed winds of 30
to 35 mph just north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for some slow development over the next
week while the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph,
crossing the Windward Islands Monday morning and moving into the
central and western Caribbean by the middle to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

[cycloneye]

Look at the cone all the way to BOC.

[Stratton23]

I didnt know this but apparently the hurricane models ( HWRF, HAFS-A and HAFS-ab have options to where you can zoom out and view the entire atlantic basin, and all three have this wave developing into a stronger system as it nears the yucatan peninsula