ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

NOAA recon definitely didn't go through the CoC.

[CronkPSU]

Levi now saying what we have…eye is directly south already of the forecast landfall and they will have to adjust the track

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/18 ... FezRDDrNhw

[aspen]

994/22 “eye” drop, supports 992-991mb. Although it may not be very accurate since they missed the center.

[NDG]

Levi now saying what we have…eye is directly south already of the forecast landfall and they will have to adjust the track

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/18 ... FezRDDrNhw

I hope people in Jax are ready for some very heavy rains over the next few days if the current heading is correct along with the latest 18z GFS.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at the zoom earth app she appears to be east of the cone or right on the eastern edge. But I don’t love their radar so it’s hard to say for sure. Anyone else notice that?

[NDG]

There could be some serious storm surge flooding once the surface winds turn onshore across the Tampa Bay area if Ft Myers Beach saw such a storm surge with the storm further again.

[CronkPSU]

Man Canaveral getting nailed right now, tornado warning and local guy just said over 60 mph winds

[IsabelaWeather]

Question and not an attack on the NHC. They're awesome. I've been tracking these things for a long time... It seems the NHC sometimes lags by a couple hours or so on what is happening. The question is this.... Does the NHC have discussion written up
ahead of time? In other words, if a NE
movement or a slower movement occured a couple hours ago, would they leave the discussion as is for continuity sake or just not having time to update? And then blend it out in the next discussion?

This line of thinking always drives me nuts. The NHC does an average movement. They don't just change because it moves a few miles in one direction, it could just as easily move back the other direction.

The storm may be a little right of track but it is still where it is expected to be.

Here is the first forecast track for Ian. Spot on if you ask me.

[FLLurker32]

Same thing here in Perry FL (near coast 1.5 hours south of Tally) about 2 hours ago, many limbs down, since then nada.

You drive slow, it is only a 50 mile drive on a four lane from TLH,, I used to go to FSU, and could smell Perry's paper mills in TLH when the wind was from the SE. Note when you are in Perry that most of the locals have half rotted away teeth, caused by the acidic polluted air. Perry is a place one doesn't want to visit, and most wouldn't want to live there, either,

Unnecessarily personal and rude. Brings zero value to the discussion topic. Should be removed.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like it’s 60 kt. Center is still broad despite being a lot better organized. I think they missed the exact center by a tiny bit.

I don't think mission 6 (NOAA) is aiming for the center currently. They have been placing dropsondes around the edge

[otowntiger]

Man Canaveral getting nailed right now, tornado warning and local guy just said over 60 mph winds

Actually I think he was saying their radar was briefly indicating 80mph gusts.

[caneman]

Question and not an attack on the NHC. They're awesome. I've been tracking these things for a long time... It seems the NHC sometimes lags by a couple hours or so on what is happening. The question is this.... Does the NHC have discussion written up
ahead of time? In other words, if a NE
movement or a slower movement occured a couple hours ago, would they leave the discussion as is for continuity sake or just not having time to update? And then blend it out in the next discussion?

This line of thinking always drives me nuts. The NHC does an average movement. They don't just change because it moves a few miles in one direction, it could just as easily move back the other direction.

The storm may be a little right of track but it is still where it is expected to be.

Here is the first forecast track for Ian. Spot on if you ask me.

https://i.imgur.com/Ntdj0lx.png

You shouldn't go crazy over a question of delayed updates..
Nobody questioned their accuracy. Go back and read the post where I clearly stated they're well within margin and even mentioned jogs but it's heading for the eastern edge

[psyclone]

A Dixie County landfall would not be a surprise at this point. A rightward adjustment at the 11 seems likely. Cross City could be in the cross hairs.

[johngaltfla]

Man Canaveral getting nailed right now, tornado warning and local guy just said over 60 mph winds

Yeah tornado warning just bypassed our area to the east by 2 miles. Possible tornado heading up through Lakewood Ranch and moving NE at 33+ mph.

[johngaltfla]

A Dixie County landfall would not be a surprise at this point. A rightward adjustment at the 11 seems likely. Cross City could be in the cross hairs.

One thing for sure, they are used to it. Man that area gets a lot of tropical weather almost every season.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Anyone know how many tornadoes have been generated by Debby up to this point?

[FLLurker32]

I’m genuinely confused by the NHC 8pm update. They’re giving the direction of N at 12mph BUT the updated graphic shows it swinging west of current position before going NE? Can anyone explain this?

[HurricaneBelle]

Finally getting a break from the heavy rain in Clearwater, my street has flooded and there's water halfway up my driveway. Thankfully it won't come in my house and should recede some. Just hoping a training band doesn't set up over us later, although I'm worried about the heavy band offshore rotating in. Still have power and I'm attributing that to the lines in my neighborhood being buried.

[Coolcruiseman]

Man Canaveral getting nailed right now, tornado warning and local guy just said over 60 mph winds

Have had some decent weather through Melbourne area in the last couple hours. Brevard now under a Tornado watch

[psyclone]

I’m genuinely confused by the NHC 8pm update. They’re giving the direction of N at 12mph BUT the updated graphic shows it swinging west of current position before going NE? Can anyone explain this?

I'd wait on the next full forecast suite and updated track at 11...which will likely tick somewhat eastward. I part of the difficulty in ascertaining motion is the storm is a little poorly organized resulting in a curly q motion that's averaging northward or a tick east of that. The next update will accommodate this motion most likely