ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jonny]

If Debby is more east, wouldn’t that imply an earlier landfall since she’s closer to land? Wouldn’t be too surprising since she already became both a TD and TS earlier than expected. lol

[FLLurker32]

I’m genuinely confused by the NHC 8pm update. They’re giving the direction of N at 12mph BUT the updated graphic shows it swinging west of current position before going NE? Can anyone explain this?

I'd wait on the next full forecast suite and updated track at 11...which will likely tick somewhat eastward. I part of the difficulty in ascertaining motion is the storm is a little poorly organized resulting in a curly q motion that's averaging northward or a tick east of that. The next update will accommodate this motion most likely

That’s what I thought but the graphics being updated to show as of 8pm gave me some pause. A lot of folks will be asleep by 11 and will wake up to a bit of a surprise.

[johngaltfla]

60 mph gusts at SRQ (Sarasota - Bradenton Intl Airport)
70 mph gusts at Skyway Fishing Pier

Typing straight from Paul DelGatto's report. Another tornado warning heading into Eastern Hillsborough County.

[HurricaneBelle]

This band just offshore Pinellas is producing more lightning than I ever remember seeing in a tropical system in these parts.

[NDG]

986 mb extrap pressure by AF recon

000600 2816N 08355W 6965 03060 9861 +155 +119 224015 019 016 002 00

[ScottNAtlanta]

986 mb extrap pressure by AF recon

000600 2816N 08355W 6965 03060 9861 +155 +119 224015 019 016 002 00

I figured it would be lower. NOAA plane didn't hit the center

[psyclone]

I’m genuinely confused by the NHC 8pm update. They’re giving the direction of N at 12mph BUT the updated graphic shows it swinging west of current position before going NE? Can anyone explain this?

I'd wait on the next full forecast suite and updated track at 11...which will likely tick somewhat eastward. I part of the difficulty in ascertaining motion is the storm is a little poorly organized resulting in a curly q motion that's averaging northward or a tick east of that. The next update will accommodate this motion most likely

That’s what I thought but the graphics being updated to show as of 8pm gave me some pause. A lot of folks will be asleep by 11 and will wake up to a bit of a surprise.

Important point: the graphics don't update on the intermediate advisories...only the complete advisories which are at 5 and 11

[canebeard]

Nice looking outflow,

[FLLurker32]

I'd wait on the next full forecast suite and updated track at 11...which will likely tick somewhat eastward. I part of the difficulty in ascertaining motion is the storm is a little poorly organized resulting in a curly q motion that's averaging northward or a tick east of that. The next update will accommodate this motion most likely

That’s what I thought but the graphics being updated to show as of 8pm gave me some pause. A lot of folks will be asleep by 11 and will wake up to a bit of a surprise.

Important point: the graphics don't update on the intermediate advisories...only the complete advisories which are at 5 and 11

You aren’t quite understanding what I’m saying. I know they don’t BUT typically at the 8pm update you will see the timestamp of the graphic still show 5pm. It’s showing 8pm on the actual graphic timestamp.

[sponger]

Sure is a big girl!

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04My44MjIsMjcuMzNdLCJsb2NhdGlvbiI6bnVsbCwiem9vbSI6Ny42MTcwNzU0NTgzOTA3Mjl9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6ZmFsc2UsIm9wYWNpdHkiOnsiYWxlcnRzIjowLjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

[canebeard]

You drive slow, it is only a 50 mile drive on a four lane from TLH,, I used to go to FSU, and could smell Perry's paper mills in TLH when the wind was from the SE. Note when you are in Perry that most of the locals have half rotted away teeth, caused by the acidic polluted air. Perry is a place one doesn't want to visit, and most wouldn't want to live there, either,

Unnecessarily personal and rude. Brings zero value to the discussion topic. Should be removed.

I was simply joking around with you about the driving---somewhat trying to show some commonality with probably a a newbie chaser, It might have been raining, I suppose, making driving difficult.

Are you a newbie chaser and take the sport of chasing so seriously, you have lost your sense of humor? And it is a SPORT; not serious scientific research, as some of the newer chasers like to claim when they hunt out and find a TV reporter to interview them. Since the 1990s, the weather service and several university meteorology depts. place many wind and tidal sensors along the warned coastline; so any readings a chaser gets, is simply just another of many wind readings that come into the NHC. And often chasers exaggerate their wind readings; making such "data" unreliable. Enjoy the spectacle of nature if you are chasing!!

As far as Perry is concerned; the polluted air from the paper mills and the LEGALLY polluted Fenholloway River has been going on since before I went to FSU in 1965+. It is a shameful example of some local gov't valuing a few jobs over the quality of life and health of its citizens, and it has gone on there decade after decade. When you drive over that river, you can see the thick white-coal colored pollution scum that is over a foot deep.

Maybe Hurricane Idalia destroyed those paper mills, and the problem has been naturally solved by nature itself.

I don't think being accurate on miles, or mph of wind, in a meteorological forum is a rude exercise. If you happen to live in Perry, I do apologize if I insulted one of the most air polluted places on earth. If Idalia did the job, it would be a good example of how hurricanes change a local society; create new inlets for navigation, clean out years of silt that have settled offshore, and teach people to work together (out of necessity).

[weeniepatrol]

[FLLurker32]

You drive slow, it is only a 50 mile drive on a four lane from TLH,, I used to go to FSU, and could smell Perry's paper mills in TLH when the wind was from the SE. Note when you are in Perry that most of the locals have half rotted away teeth, caused by the acidic polluted air. Perry is a place one doesn't want to visit, and most wouldn't want to live there, either,

Unnecessarily personal and rude. Brings zero value to the discussion topic. Should be removed.

I was simply joking around with you about the driving---somewhat trying to show some commonality with probably a a newbie chaser, It might have been raining, I suppose, making driving difficult.

Are you a newbie chaser and take the sport of chasing so seriously, you have lost your sense of humor? And it is a SPORT; not serious scientific research, as some of the newer chasers like to claim when they hunt out and find a TV reporter to interview them. Since the 1990s, the weather service and several university meteorology depts. place many wind and tidal sensors along the warned coastline; so any readings a chaser gets, is simply just another of many wind readings that come into the NHC. And often chasers exaggerate their wind readings; making such "data" unreliable. Enjoy the spectacle of nature if you are chasing!!

As far as Perry is concerned; the polluted air from the paper mills and the LEGALLY polluted Fenholloway River has been going on since before I went to FSU in 1965+. It is a shameful example of some local gov't valuing a few jobs over the quality of life and health of its citizens, and it has gone on there decade after decade. When you drive over that river, you can see the thick white-coal colored pollution scum that is over a foot deep.

Maybe Hurricane Idalia destroyed those paper mills, and the problem has been naturally solved by nature itself.

I’m not the person you claim to have been joking with. I’ve been on this board under this and other names for around 15 yrs. My comments stand.

[caneman]

The wind is ripping now!. Multiple lightning and thunder near Indian Rocks.

[rigbyrigz]

Same thing here in Perry FL (near coast 1.5 hours south of Tally) about 2 hours ago, many limbs down, since then nada.

You drive slow, it is only a 50 mile drive on a four lane from TLH,, I used to go to FSU, and could smell Perry's paper mills in TLH when the wind was from the SE

we are actually (near the Gulf) about 20 minutes south of center Perry, but yeah i do drive slow, lol. they also shut down the big paper mill this summer. many jobs gone. but less pollution?

[ronjon]

The wind is ripping now!. Multiple lightning and thunder near Indian Rocks.

That is a nasty squall band just offshore of Pinellas with lots of lightning. Recent wind gust of 62 mph at Albert Whitted airport in downtown St Pete.

[gatorcane]

28,934 Duke Energy customers without power in Pinellas with 21,000 of those in south county:
https://outagemaps.duke-energy.com/#/current-outages/fl

[caneman]

The wind is ripping now!. Multiple lightning and thunder near Indian Rocks.

That is a nasty squall band just offshore of Pinellas with lots of lightning. Recent wind gust of 62 mph at Albert Whitted airport in downtown St Pete.

Pretty close to that here on IRB some of it sustained

[Michele B]

Question and not an attack on the NHC. They're awesome. I've been tracking these things for a long time... It seems the NHC sometimes lags by a couple hours or so on what is happening. The question is this.... Does the NHC have discussion written up
ahead of time? In other words, if a NE
movement or a slower movement occured a couple hours ago, would they leave the discussion as is for continuity sake or just not having time to update? And then blend it out in the next discussion?

This line of thinking always drives me nuts. The NHC does an average movement. They don't just change because it moves a few miles in one direction, it could just as easily move back the other direction.

The storm may be a little right of track but it is still where it is expected to be.

Here is the first forecast track for Ian. Spot on if you ask me.

https://i.imgur.com/Ntdj0lx.png

Speaking of Ian......

As someone who endured Ian and is still recovering somewhat.....

I will take a dozen Debbys over ONE MORE IAN.

I know there are plenty of people who will not be able to make that statement, and we have been praying for their safety, but for us....we looked around us today and decided if this is the worst we get this season, we will be very thankful. Flooding and all!

[rigbyrigz]

Unnecessarily personal and rude. Brings zero value to the discussion topic. Should be removed.

I was simply joking around with you about the driving---somewhat trying to show some commonality with probably a a newbie chaser, It might have been raining, I suppose, making driving difficult.

Are you a newbie chaser and take the sport of chasing so seriously, you have lost your sense of humor? And it is a SPORT; not serious scientific research, as some of the newer chasers like to claim when they hunt out and find a TV reporter to interview them. Since the 1990s, the weather service and several university meteorology depts. place many wind and tidal sensors along the warned coastline; so any readings a chaser gets, is simply just another of many wind readings that come into the NHC. And often chasers exaggerate their wind readings; making such "data" unreliable. Enjoy the spectacle of nature if you are chasing!!

As far as Perry is concerned; the polluted air from the paper mills and the LEGALLY polluted Fenholloway River has been going on since before I went to FSU in 1965+. It is a shameful example of some local gov't valuing a few jobs over the quality of life and health of its citizens, and it has gone on there decade after decade. When you drive over that river, you can see the thick white-coal colored pollution scum that is over a foot deep.

Maybe Hurricane Idalia destroyed those paper mills, and the problem has been naturally solved by nature itself.

I don't think being accurate on miles, or mph of wind, in a meteorological forum is a rude exercise. If you happen to live in Perry, I do apologize if I insulted one of the most air polluted places on earth.

Im the Perry guy and i didnt downvote or complain about your post. Im more concerned about safety and planning and expectations than anything personal. Apology accepted lol, and best of luck stay safe to all.