ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

'sonde supports 987mb..

[rigbyrigz]

I eagerly await the 11PM NHC stuff, but still wondering what the data or recon (or experts interpretations) think of it being just a likely wobble, or a real (earlier than expected) trend to the right? TY.

[Steve]

Latest high resolution HRRR model shows a slow N-NE movement toward the coast with landfall approaching Steinhatchee FL at noon tomorrow.

Let's hope not! That would give it time to reach cat 2 status if that played out.

It’s at 23z. 00z which is a much longer run should be out in a little while.

[Steve]

I only ever drove through Cross City, Perry and Lake City and never spent any time in any of those areas (except northeast in Macclenny). But I do love Ichatcuknee Springs. That’s a treasure. And Big Bend has taken enough. So love to everyone in Taylor and Dixie Counties who your boy, me, thought would be the next landfall point back a couple days. Best to any of y’all in that vicinity.

[eastcoastFL]

Quite the change over the last hour or so on radar. She’s starting to look like a healthy cat 1 hurricane.

[CronkPSU]

Quite the change over the last hour or so on radar. She’s starting to look like a healthy cat 1 hurricane.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

making a beeline NE based off that saved radar loop

[Sunnydays]

004000 2811N 08253W 6959 03156 0069 +073 //// 186075 077 042 012 01
004030 2813N 08252W 6973 03141 0074 +073 //// 181073 075 036 014 01
004100 2815N 08251W 6968 03146 //// +075 //// 177072 075 032 020 01

Enough to upgrade to hurricane?

[weeniepatrol]

004000 2811N 08253W 6959 03156 0069 +073 //// 186075 077 042 012 01
004030 2813N 08252W 6973 03141 0074 +073 //// 181073 075 036 014 01
004100 2815N 08251W 6968 03146 //// +075 //// 177072 075 032 020 01

Enough to upgrade to hurricane?

SFMR hasn't corroborated hurricane force winds just yet, but it's only a matter of time

[aspen]

Quite the change over the last hour or so on radar. She’s starting to look like a healthy cat 1 hurricane.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Yikes, and it has anywhere from 8 to 15 hours left before landfall (depending on which model you look at). Residents better prepare for a particularly gnarly Cat 1 like Beryl.

[eastcoastFL]

Quite the change over the last hour or so on radar. She’s starting to look like a healthy cat 1 hurricane.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

making a beeline NE based off that saved radar loop

Looks that way. I wonder when the slow down is expected to happen.

[eastcoastFL]

Quite the change over the last hour or so on radar. She’s starting to look like a healthy cat 1 hurricane.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Yikes, and it has anywhere from 8 to 15 hours left before landfall (depending on which model you look at). Residents better prepare for a particularly gnarly Cat 1 like Beryl.

It’s going to be a long night for much of north and central Florida.

[sponger]

Only another hour and 45 for the NHC to tell us what is obvious to anyone with radar.

[sasha_B]

AL, 04, 2024080500, , BEST, 0, 282N, 840W, 60, 987, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 70, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

Best track has Debby a tenth of a degree east and 5mb deeper than the 8pm update.

[eastcoastFL]

At 8pm NHC had Debby at 28.1°N 84.1°W.

Last recon fix was around 28.53°N 83.83°W

[ScottNAtlanta]

Only problem right now is that the strongest winds are still 50 or so miles away from the center. You'd want (or not want) to see those closer in. The only thing close is near the coast and they aren't even making it to the ground

[TampaWxLurker]

Only another hour and 45 for the NHC to tell us what is obvious to anyone with radar.

I really hope everyone in Dixie & Levy Counties don't get caught off guard.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say based on the data combined from both planes that 65 kt is a better intensity guess. We'll see what the NHC says in a little over an hour.

[eastcoastFL]

Buoy at 28.501 N 84.508 W reports pressure rapidly falling.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'd say based on the data combined from both planes that 65 kt is a better intensity guess. We'll see what the NHC says in a little over an hour.

Where are you arriving at that number? I have not been able to find much of anything close to that at the surface.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say based on the data combined from both planes that 65 kt is a better intensity guess. We'll see what the NHC says in a little over an hour.

Where are you arriving at that number? I have not been able to find much of anything close to that at the surface.

NOAA P-3 had 63 kt SFMR.