ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'd say based on the data combined from both planes that 65 kt is a better intensity guess. We'll see what the NHC says in a little over an hour.

Where are you arriving at that number? I have not been able to find much of anything close to that at the surface.

NOAA P-3 had 63 kt SFMR.

Thanks...I must have missed it

[ColdMiser123]

Bit of a wobble back west with the latest AF center fix.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on radar it looks like it will be coming ashore early tomorrow morning. So incredibly glad this didn't have more time over water, especially since the rain is going to cause enough problems of it's own.

[Noles2016]

At 8pm NHC had Debby at 28.1°N 84.1°W.

Last recon fix was around 28.53°N 83.83°W

Am I missing something, or did the last Vortex Message have it at 28.31N, 84.02 W?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Flight level winds support 65 knots at 11pm.

[CrazyC83]

At 8pm NHC had Debby at 28.1°N 84.1°W.

Last recon fix was around 28.53°N 83.83°W

Am I missing something, or did the last Vortex Message have it at 28.31N, 84.02 W?

The real center seems to be around 28.35N 84.00W right now. The NOAA plane in its last pass missed it to the north.

[eastcoastFL]

At 8pm NHC had Debby at 28.1°N 84.1°W.

Last recon fix was around 28.53°N 83.83°W

Am I missing something, or did the last Vortex Message have it at 28.31N, 84.02 W?

Might be a different plane

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... -DEBBY.png

[HurricaneBelle]

Quite the change over the last hour or so on radar. She’s starting to look like a healthy cat 1 hurricane.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

making a beeline NE based off that saved radar loop

Not sure where you are getting NE, it looks a little east of due north. The eye opened up larger at the end which makes it look NE but it is really more like an 030 heading.

[Teban54]

The NOAA plane once again avoided (or missed?) the center, but got 990.8 mb while being obviously pretty far away from it:

[Sciencerocks]

[weeniepatrol]

014230 2829N 08257W 7430 02591 9996 +146 +147 196085 091 056 021 01

[weeniepatrol]

014230 2829N 08257W 7430 02591 9996 +146 +147 196085 091 056 021 01

[ColdMiser123]

65 kt SFMR with the west eyewall, with 91 kt FL wind on the east side. 80% conversion factor may be better for this flight level wind since those winds may not be fully mixing down to the surface.

[CrazyC83]

65 kt SFMR with the west eyewall, with 91 kt FL wind on the east side. 80% conversion factor may be better for this flight level wind due to the lack of convection there.

With that conversion, 91 kt at that height is about 73 kt at the surface.

[eastcoastFL]

65 kt SFMR with the west eyewall, with 91 kt FL wind on the east side. 80% conversion factor may be better for this flight level wind due to the lack of convection there.

With that conversion, 91 kt at that height is about 73 kt at the surface.

Sounds about right with what we’re seeing on radar.

[robbielyn]

Quite the change over the last hour or so on radar. She’s starting to look like a healthy cat 1 hurricane.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Yikes, and it has anywhere from 8 to 15 hours left before landfall (depending on which model you look at). Residents better prepare for a particularly gnarly Cat 1 like Beryl.

It’s going to be a long night for much of north and central Florida.

Not if u r sleeping lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Debby's putting in the work unfortunately. We may be as high as 70 knots at 11pm based on those flight level winds.

[BobHarlem]

On radar, the center opened up on the NE Side and the middle looks like a wide oval now.

[drewschmaltz]

It could be an illusion but it appears sometimes that the frictional effect of land can serve to tighten up a storm. I've noticed this most in the yucatan and the big bend. First - is this just an illusion or can it be a thing? Second, if it's a thing it appears that Debby is situated in a way where there is a lot of spread out energy poised to benefit from this effect.

Something about the shape of the storm vs the shore line - plus the two blobs that look like fists screams I'm about to take off.

[aspen]

Seems like Debby is still trying to close out some dry air in its southern quadrant. Thunderstorms still haven’t wrapped around all the way.