Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean (0/0)

[toad strangler]

12z GFS showing a far west re-curve. At a week plus out that could happen anywhere. Or not at all

[cheezyWXguy]

Im not buying the EPS/ Euro, given how the GFS has done a better job at seeing development this year than the euro, im leaning more towards development of the wave, looking in real time, the wave is also convectively active and more amplified currently than what the euro shows

Same, I don’t see a whole lot to stop this wave from getting going as long as it maintains sufficient latitude. I don’t see any TUTT to impart shear and the wave has a decent moisture envelope. Honestly I’m a little surprised the gfs doesn’t get it going earlier given that the environment looks pretty good in the Caribbean imo.

[Stratton23]

cheezywxguy the EPS has below average shear throughout the entire caribbean so thats why im having a hard time believing it lol, dry air also doesnt look like much of an issue as the wave moves into that region, only thing really stopping it is if it just crashes straight into Nicaragua

[GalvestonDuck]

12z GFS develops in GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/5Rzi3DP.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/U9eTuoN.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/71gogln.jpeg

Jeepers!! Texas would like to relinquish our place in line for the next storm, thank you very much.

[galaxy401]

Could be another one of those storms that will develop right before landfall. Could quickly organize but then make landfall making us think if it had more time over water.

[ROCK]

12Z GFS is a nasty run...EURO/ ICON have not bought on yet...CMC into MX

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland over northern Florida.

Near the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have changed little since this morning.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development later this week as the system
moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Is this looking like another Gulf storm?

All depends on the trough. 50/50 right now. Mexico/GOM

[Stratton23]

Both HAFS- A and B hurricane models develop this wave on approach to the yucatan peninsula in 4-5 days

[TomballEd]

Is this looking like another Gulf storm?

All depends on the trough. 50/50 right now. Mexico/GOM

Only ~20% of the Canadian and GFS ensemble members have anything that would hit Texas or Louisiana, and many either never develop or hit Central America too far S to emerge over the BoC. Lower than normal shear in early August, when shear is still usually high, doesn't mean favorable shear.

Finally, following just off the coast of Venezuela means the South American heat low will compete for inflow into the wave through most of the Caribbean if the LL vort max stays as far S as forecasted. Worth watching, but NHC knows what they are doing with the probs.

[Stratton23]

Im generally giving more weight to the GFS right now simply because it did well with debby and beryl and the euro had to play catch up on both systems, now i dont know about the GFS hurricane in texas solution, but i think we will see more consolidation or amplification lf the wave than what the EPS shows, Mexico to Louisiana is fair game here

[ROCK]

Im generally giving more weight to the GFS right now simply because it did well with debby and beryl and the euro had to play catch up on both systems, now i dont know about the GFS hurricane in texas solution, but i think we will see more consolidation or amplification lf the wave than what the EPS shows, Mexico to Louisiana is fair game here

GFS run yesterday had a Debby 2.0 if it develops so I would extend that out a bit....lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like many of the MJO models have corrected to phases 8 around to 3 in the next couple of weeks and that favors development in our part of the world.

[lilbump3000]

[TomballEd]

New Euro doesn't like the E Caribbean wave. Tracks too far S to develop. 10/30 still seems reasonable, maybe even generous for development odds.

[Stratton23]

TomballEd na 30% is reasonable

[hipshot]

EPS keeps trending weaker.

What is EPS and I don't mean "earnings per share" as we are now seeing in the stock markets!

EPS are Euro ensembles

Thanks

[mpic]

How is the ICON doing with this one?

[Stratton23]

Not showing anything, but the ICON is absolutely terrible with seeing tropical development, it only did good with beryl until after it became a system, its generally one of the poorest models in terms of seeing tropical cyclongensis formation

[ROCK]

Not showing anything, but the ICON is absolutely terrible with seeing tropical development, it only did good with beryl until after it became a system, its generally one of the poorest models in terms of seeing tropical cyclongensis formation

ICON is ran off similar EURO parameters. Did a little research during Beryl. lol......makes sense its not seeing it if the Euro isn't on board.