ATL: DEBBY - Models

[tolakram]

EC fast, note that it shows a lower pressure at second landfall that current landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Euro also not showing much of a wind event inland SC or NC but definitely a big flooding/rain event. Global models don't resolve 10m winds as good as the hurricane models though.

[Kingarabian]

If the NCEP models are to cave to the CMC/Euro/ICON solutions, it would be nice for that to happen now. Need the hurricane models to show the type of wind threat for SC/NC if that's the landfall point.

[Steve]

If the NCEP models are to cave to the CMC/Euro/ICON solutions, it would be nice for that to happen now. Need the hurricane models to show the type of wind threat for SC/NC if that's the landfall point.

Though ICON and EC do show pressures more associated with Cat 2 storms, it doesn't look like either ever get the wind up all that much. Probably this is due to either a function of it having to reorganize the core or else the wind field would have expanded enough without enough time over water for them to get down to the surface commensurate with the pressure. Icon's winds are stronger than the EC but it also takes a longer track over water and comes in just north of the NC/SC border.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON shifted west closer to the 12z Euro. Landfalls just south of the SC/NC border.

[aspen]

The HWRF will not budge from its bizarre solution of Debby turning west and going back into the Gulf. Now the 18z GFS is showing something similar.

[CronkPSU]

GFS loves that path...been showing it for a while and still showing it in the latest run

[GTStorm]

GFS loves that path...been showing it for a while and still showing it in the latest run

Yeah GFS has been very consistent with this for a few runs now. No one seems to be giving it much consideration though...should we be?

Interested for obvious reasons...

[Steve]

GFS loves that path...been showing it for a while and still showing it in the latest run

Yeah GFS has been very consistent with this for a few runs now. No one seems to be giving it much consideration though...should we be?

Interested for obvious reasons...

One thing to note is it doesn’t back farther west than GA on this run almost to the AL state line whereas earlier runs have taken it farther west.

[GTStorm]

GFS loves that path...been showing it for a while and still showing it in the latest run

Yeah GFS has been very consistent with this for a few runs now. No one seems to be giving it much consideration though...should we be?

Interested for obvious reasons...

One thing to note is it doesn’t back farther west than GA on this run almost to the AL state line whereas earlier runs have taken it farther west.

So possibly falling in line with most of the other projections?

[CronkPSU]

no it just stalls and eventually dies near Alabama/Georgia line

[Steve]

Yeah GFS has been very consistent with this for a few runs now. No one seems to be giving it much consideration though...should we be?

Interested for obvious reasons...

One thing to note is it doesn’t back farther west than GA on this run almost to the AL state line whereas earlier runs have taken it farther west.

So possibly falling in line with most of the other projections?

It’s still different in that it just comes straight back. Most other models either spin it around off the GA coast or take it out East or ESE before coming up toward SC. GFs eventually gets Debby absorbed into the flow heading NE and out but doesn’t do anything with it since it comes back to land.

[stormhunter7]

wonder if there is a split and low level goes one way, and the mid level goes another?

[Kingarabian]

The HWRF will not budge from its bizarre solution of Debby turning west and going back into the Gulf. Now the 18z GFS is showing something similar.

Makes sense since it's under the NCEP umbrella as is the GFS.

[Nimbus]

GFS loves that path...been showing it for a while and still showing it in the latest run

Yeah GFS has been very consistent with this for a few runs now. No one seems to be giving it much consideration though...should we be?

Interested for obvious reasons...

I saw the ghost in the water vapor imagery again, last time I saw that the models suddenly shifted track.
Left to their own imagination the models go insane.

[JtSmarts]

 https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/1820611640573759982

[Kingarabian]

18z solid westerly shift at hour 72 and goes into SC vs the SC/NC border.

[Steve]

HRRR out to 7pm CDT Wednesday gets the system to the GA Coast, rides along it and then hits a stop and moves offshore then rides along the SC Coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80600&fh=8

[Steve]

FV3 making the same move due east and offshore before crossing the GA/SC border. More when it finishes.

[Kingarabian]

00z ICON now almost exactly inline with the Euro.