ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SecondBreakfast]

Time to start fretting over possible flash flooding up here in the NE from Debby’s remnants. We are under a flood watch for a system moving through tomorrow so very saturated here.

[hipshot]

Time to start fretting over possible flash flooding up here in the NE from Debby’s remnants. We are under a flood watch for a system moving through tomorrow so very saturated here.

My daughter and her family live in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, are they really expecting something out of Debbie?

[sasha_B]

These tornado warnings + radar debris signatures going off in / south of Charleston County are not something I'm used to in tropical systems (though i know they do happen). I haven't been in a warned area yet but watching them show up on radar as the rain, gusts, lightning are picking up sure is something. Fortunately rainfall totals in my immediate vicinity so far still seem to be in the 2-4" range, streets aren't flooded out in the neighbourhood, but the latest 5-day total map still has my area in the 20-30" area...hard to imagine that kind of rain even having lived here 19 years & through several TCs.

[SecondBreakfast]

Time to start fretting over possible flash flooding up here in the NE from Debby’s remnants. We are under a flood watch for a system moving through tomorrow so very saturated here.

My daughter and her family live in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, are they really expecting something out of Debbie?

Some of the models are predicting 5 inches of rain or so in the area. If they’re in a spot that usually struggles with our storms they should prepare. We have had a few flooding events in recent years, the effects really can change from block to block in Brooklyn.

[weeniepatrol]

Incredible band setting up over Charleston

[Craters]

These tornado warnings + radar debris signatures going off in / south of Charleston County are not something I'm used to in tropical systems (though i know they do happen). I haven't been in a warned area yet but watching them show up on radar as the rain, gusts, lightning are picking up sure is something. Fortunately rainfall totals in my immediate vicinity so far still seem to be in the 2-4" range, streets aren't flooded out in the neighbourhood, but the latest 5-day total map still has my area in the 20-30" area...hard to imagine that kind of rain even having lived here 19 years & through several TCs.

Between breaks in the rain, I heartily recommend going out and checking any drains on the street and make sure they aren't jammed up with "beaver dams" of twigs, pine needles, uncollected newspapers, branches, magnolia leaves, etc. All it takes is a few branches to inhibit decent drainage, and that just cascades into local flooding. For what it's worth.

[sasha_B]

These tornado warnings + radar debris signatures going off in / south of Charleston County are not something I'm used to in tropical systems (though i know they do happen). I haven't been in a warned area yet but watching them show up on radar as the rain, gusts, lightning are picking up sure is something. Fortunately rainfall totals in my immediate vicinity so far still seem to be in the 2-4" range, streets aren't flooded out in the neighbourhood, but the latest 5-day total map still has my area in the 20-30" area...hard to imagine that kind of rain even having lived here 19 years & through several TCs.

Between breaks in the rain, I heartily recommend going out and checking any drains on the street and make sure they aren't jammed up with "beaver dams" of twigs, pine needles, uncollected newspapers, branches, magnolia leaves, etc. All it takes is a few branches to inhibit decent drainage, and that just cascades into local flooding. For what it's worth.

Duly noted. Once this big rain band passes + there's daylight to work with I'll keep that in mind - & thank you for the tip.

[lilbump3000]

https://youtube.com/shorts/bqI1yf9_E9A

[chaser1]

What? No posts here in the last 2 hours LOL??
Granted, we are left with a borderline TD/TS here but from a scientific and forecast perspective I can't help but find what's left of Debby kind of interesting.
I've been studying satellite for the last few minutes and have my own thoughts. What do any of you guys see while looking at the storm??

[tiger_deF]

What? No posts here in the last 2 hours LOL??
Granted, we are left with a borderline TD/TS here but from a scientific and forecast perspective I can't help but find what's left of Debby kind of interesting.
I've been studying satellite for the last few minutes and have my own thoughts. What do any of you guys see while looking at the storm??

It’s tough to say, I’d love to see how tropical Debby remains, since its trek over land has left her asymmetric. That being said the structure is definitely there for restrengthening.

[chaser1]

Okay, asymmetric... true. There's something else too. I'll give you a hint- check out the Jacksonville Fl radar, and then the night time short-wave IR. Now what do you see

[chaser1]

If looking at radar, one can see that Waycross is somewhat (slightly southwest) in the center of the broad radar depicted low level center. Furthermore, a center that is devoid of any cold tops or convection. Meanwhile, if viewing the satellite, its as if you were looking at something different with what would appear to be a vigorous circulation more or less centered just offshore southernmost coastal Georgia.

[chaser1]

What appears to be more than just asymmetric is a very tilted low with the mid-level feature having moved further east and the low level feature seemingly exposed and west of the mid-level vorticity. Though not fully, the appearance seems "detached". Typically, this occurs as a result of vertical shear but that doesn't happen in a vacuum. Dry air clearly was entrained into the circulation which already over land, has led to a very shallow appearance.
I haven't heard any surface obs during the past few hours but have to believe that the surface pressure is WAY up and we are likely no longer looking at a T.S. but rather a T.D. at this point. I could be entirely wrong here, but I do not see "Debby" having enough of organized core structure to significantly restrengthen to anything more than a low level T.S. again..... even assuming that it has a full couple of days over water.

[LarryWx]

I’ve continued to get on and off heavy bands of rainfall the last few hours along with a few gusts likely as high as 40-45, about the strongest here so far for Debby. I believe I’ve now exceeded 8” for this storm (similar to KSAV) with that during just the last 18 hours though street flooding isn’t quite as bad as before due to an earlier lull in the heavy rain. I bet the drainage canals are full!

[NC George]

What? No posts here in the last 2 hours LOL??
Granted, we are left with a borderline TD/TS here but from a scientific and forecast perspective I can't help but find what's left of Debby kind of interesting.
I've been studying satellite for the last few minutes and have my own thoughts. What do any of you guys see while looking at the storm??

It's no longer going to hit Florida, and it's not going to RI into a Cat 5, so most people have left. I've been concerned about the rainfall totals in my area, but it looks like the chances of a deluge are diminishing for me.

[weeniepatrol]

What? No posts here in the last 2 hours LOL??
Granted, we are left with a borderline TD/TS here but from a scientific and forecast perspective I can't help but find what's left of Debby kind of interesting.
I've been studying satellite for the last few minutes and have my own thoughts. What do any of you guys see while looking at the storm??

It's going to be a long few days for a lot of people. I guess many days of torrential rain is a bit of a slower-burn. Less exciting than a bombing out hurricane

 https://twitter.com/jnelsonWJCL/status/1820718275912663540




 https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1820704882262974729

[Nimbus]

Dry slot over Jacksonville may reach Savannah soon providing some temporary relief.
Charleston forecast still has a lot of rain in training bands setting up.
Looks like the official forecast keeps the Debby core weakening more inland.

[wxman57]

Time to start fretting over possible flash flooding up here in the NE from Debby’s remnants. We are under a flood watch for a system moving through tomorrow so very saturated here.

My daughter and her family live in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, are they really expecting something out of Debbie?

Debby will be merging with a cold front over North Carolina on Friday. All global models indicate the transition to begin early on Friday.The low will track up the front late Friday and Saturday, enhancing rainfall along the coast, but no more so than any other frontal low.

Debby completely lost its core overnight. I am unable to find any sustained wind higher than about 15-20 mph inland across Georgia or South Carolina. Any TS winds are way offshore to the east.

[hipshot]

Time to start fretting over possible flash flooding up here in the NE from Debby’s remnants. We are under a flood watch for a system moving through tomorrow so very saturated here.

My daughter and her family live in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, are they really expecting something out of Debbie?

Some of the models are predicting 5 inches of rain or so in the area. If they’re in a spot that usually struggles with our storms they should prepare. We have had a few flooding events in recent years, the effects really can change from block to block in Brooklyn.

Their apartment building is on a hill and they are on the 3rd floor. I think they should be fine.

[sasha_B]

Time to start fretting over possible flash flooding up here in the NE from Debby’s remnants. We are under a flood watch for a system moving through tomorrow so very saturated here.

My daughter and her family live in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, are they really expecting something out of Debbie?

Debby will be merging with a cold front over North Carolina on Friday. All global models indicate the transition to begin early on Friday.The low will track up the front late Friday and Saturday, enhancing rainfall along the coast, but no more so than any other frontal low.

Debby completely lost its core overnight. I am unable to find any sustained wind higher than about 15-20 mph inland across Georgia or South Carolina. Any TS winds are way offshore to the east.

Do you suppose the current forecast from the NHC might be greatly overestimating wind speeds during Debby's stall/approach to second landfall, or would restrengthening/maintaining strength through that period be possible even for a system that's lost its core?