Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

In fact jlauderdal, is at the top of all the forums as an announcement so anyone can see it any anytime.

[jlauderdal]

In fact jlauderdal, is at the top of all the forums as an announcement so anyone can see it any anytime.

Even better,ha.

[hurricane2025]

We could get to 23 name storms still pretty easy

[cycloneye]

CSU and Phil Klotzbach will release the August update on Tuesday at 11 AM EDT. Also, TSR will have an updated forecast.The question is if they will do modifications of the numbers.

[Beef Stew]

CSU and Phil Klotzbach will release the August update on Tuesday at 11 AM EDT. Also, TSR will have an updated forecast.The question is if they will do modifications of the numbers.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the named storm number drop down by a few storms, but I’m expecting the forecast for hurricanes (and especially majors) to stay more or less the same.

[StPeteMike]

I would agree, lower the total Named Storms but keep the number of H and MH.

[chaser1]

CSU's updated analog seasons ....

1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

Three words come to mind looking at those analogs:
Wow, ouch, and crazy!
Taking the worst of the worst and cramming the potential outcome into a heavy west Atlantic range of storm tracks.
2-3 less named storms would not change that.

[cycloneye]

CSU at 11 AM EDT.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1820604821788914055

[SFLcane]

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) August forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 continues to anticipate a hyper-active season. There continues to be very high oceanic heat content across the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters, combined with cold-neutral or weak La Niña conditions which are expected to develop and persist through August-October 2024. These two factors are both expected to have a strong enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. 24/12/6 ace 230

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2024.pdf

[kevin]

TSR is still very bullish, just slightly below the July forecast. Here's the current forecast compared to the one in July (July on the left, August on the right).

ACE: 240 -> 230
TS: 26 -> 24
H: 13 -> 12
MH: 6 -> 6

US ACE: 5.6 -> 7.2
US TS: 7 -> 7
US H: 4 -> 4

[cajungal]

Then considering it is August 6th, things should be going crazy soon. 2005 we were already going nuts right now with storm after storm for the gulf.

[kevin]

Then considering it is August 6th, things should be going crazy soon. 2005 we were already going nuts right now with storm after storm for the gulf.

At this point in August 2005 we were at 8/3/2 with Irene already a TD and expected to become a TS on the next day so let's call it 9/3/2. The remainder of the 2005 season was thus 19/12/5. So far the numbers for 2024 are 4/2/1. With the 24/12/6 forecast that would mean the the remainder of 2024 would need numbers of 20/10/5. As such, I also expect the Atlantic to go crazy soon since we'd need 2005-level activity for the rest of the season for this forecast to verify.

Furthermore, ACE in 2005 was already at 66.0 on August 6, while we are currently at 38.9. 2005's eventual ACE was 245.3 so it still had 179.3 ACE for the rest of the season. To reach 230 ACE, 2024 would need 191.1 ACE for the rest of the season. So in terms of ACE, 2024 would have to be even more extreme than 2005 from this point.

[cajungal]

Then considering it is August 6th, things should be going crazy soon. 2005 we were already going nuts right now with storm after storm for the gulf.

At this point in August 2005 we were at 8/3/2 with Irene already a TD and expected to become a TS on the next day so let's call it 9/3/2. The remainder of the 2005 season was thus 19/12/5. So far the numbers for 2024 are 4/2/1. With the 24/12/6 forecast that would mean the the remainder of 2024 would need numbers of 20/10/5. As such, I also expect the Atlantic to go crazy soon since we'd need 2005-level activity for the rest of the season for this forecast to verify.

So true. Right now it is crickets but after going through Ida, we need the break. I won’t complain about the heat because that ridge is what protects us

[toad strangler]

ACE of 201 still AHEAD of us says CSU


FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024
We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active
Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the
hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near
record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more
conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and
intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind
shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of
a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well
above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United
States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are
reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.
Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
(as of 9 July 2024)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1
, Michael M. Bell2
, Alexander J. DesRosiers3
, and Levi G

[kevin]

The CSU August update is also out = 23/12/6.

Down from 25/12/6 in July. So they expect the same craziness during peak season as last month, just with a slightly lower TS number due to the activity so far.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1820837245567242563

[AnnularCane]

So no real surprise here. Slight decrease in number of named storms (season cancel! ), no change in hurricanes and majors. Pretty much what everyone was expecting, I think? I know I was!

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1820842729229754591

[mantis83]

season better get going pretty fast for any of these numbers to verify.....

[chaser1]

CSU's updated Aug 1 forecast seems sensible. If I were as convinced of even weak Nina conditions playing a factor by September, might have considered bumping up the number of storms reaching Hurricane intensity up by 1 or 2.