Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

season better get going pretty fast for any of these numbers to verify.....

1st inning still... With la nina getting stronger later this year i bet we are still pumping out named storms late into nov especially in the caribbean.

[toad strangler]

season better get going pretty fast for any of these numbers to verify.....

I don't understand how one can say this unless you haven't look at any of the data or updates from the professionals. Historically the season has barely begun. (See chart below) And with a neutral state ENSO or even a La Nina possible, like SFLcane said, things could be active right through November in the S and W part of the basin. Clearly that's what these pros are seeing. Will it verify? WHo knows. But go and read the forecast. Embedded right in the initial "cliff notes" paragraph is this statement from CSU ..... This forecast is of above-normal confidence

[WeatherBoy2000]

Then considering it is August 6th, things should be going crazy soon. 2005 we were already going nuts right now with storm after storm for the gulf.

At this point in August 2005 we were at 8/3/2 with Irene already a TD and expected to become a TS on the next day so let's call it 9/3/2. The remainder of the 2005 season was thus 19/12/5. So far the numbers for 2024 are 4/2/1. With the 24/12/6 forecast that would mean the the remainder of 2024 would need numbers of 20/10/5. As such, I also expect the Atlantic to go crazy soon since we'd need 2005-level activity for the rest of the season for this forecast to verify.

Furthermore, ACE in 2005 was already at 66.0 on August 6, while we are currently at 38.9. 2005's eventual ACE was 245.3 so it still had 179.3 ACE for the rest of the season. To reach 230 ACE, 2024 would need 191.1 ACE for the rest of the season. So in terms of ACE, 2024 would have to be even more extreme than 2005 from this point.

2005 was a very unique year to see such consistent/intense activity from such an early point in the season, most of the other 200+ ace years didn't really get going until mid-August, just like a normal Atlantic season. 1950 for example ended with 211 ace and didn't have its first storm until August 12th. Seeing at least 190 ace from this point on is a pretty reasonable prediction given the predicted conditions imo.

[cheezyWXguy]

Then considering it is August 6th, things should be going crazy soon. 2005 we were already going nuts right now with storm after storm for the gulf.

At this point in August 2005 we were at 8/3/2 with Irene already a TD and expected to become a TS on the next day so let's call it 9/3/2. The remainder of the 2005 season was thus 19/12/5. So far the numbers for 2024 are 4/2/1. With the 24/12/6 forecast that would mean the the remainder of 2024 would need numbers of 20/10/5. As such, I also expect the Atlantic to go crazy soon since we'd need 2005-level activity for the rest of the season for this forecast to verify.

Furthermore, ACE in 2005 was already at 66.0 on August 6, while we are currently at 38.9. 2005's eventual ACE was 245.3 so it still had 179.3 ACE for the rest of the season. To reach 230 ACE, 2024 would need 191.1 ACE for the rest of the season. So in terms of ACE, 2024 would have to be even more extreme than 2005 from this point.

2005 was a very unique year to see such consistent/intense activity from such an early point in the season, most of the other 200+ ace years didn't really get going until mid-August, just like a normal Atlantic season. 1950 for example ended with 211 ace and didn't have its first storm until August 12th. Seeing at least 190 ace from this point on is a pretty reasonable prediction given the predicted conditions imo.

Agreed, 190 ACE for the rest of the season is very achievable with those numbers (5/10/20 remaining). Using rough figures, 5 more majors with an average 20 ACE, 5 more hurricanes with an average of 10 ACE, and 10 more TSs with an average of 5 ACE would get you 200 right there.

[chaser1]

I would guess that a back-loaded remainder of August will see 3-5 additional named storms based on CSU's projected Aug update. ICON long range 500mb Vorticity seems to hint toward that with 3 low-riders in position around 160 hr's.

[al78]

Then considering it is August 6th, things should be going crazy soon. 2005 we were already going nuts right now with storm after storm for the gulf.

At this point in August 2005 we were at 8/3/2 with Irene already a TD and expected to become a TS on the next day so let's call it 9/3/2. The remainder of the 2005 season was thus 19/12/5. So far the numbers for 2024 are 4/2/1. With the 24/12/6 forecast that would mean the the remainder of 2024 would need numbers of 20/10/5. As such, I also expect the Atlantic to go crazy soon since we'd need 2005-level activity for the rest of the season for this forecast to verify.

Furthermore, ACE in 2005 was already at 66.0 on August 6, while we are currently at 38.9. 2005's eventual ACE was 245.3 so it still had 179.3 ACE for the rest of the season. To reach 230 ACE, 2024 would need 191.1 ACE for the rest of the season. So in terms of ACE, 2024 would have to be even more extreme than 2005 from this point.

2005 was a very unique year to see such consistent/intense activity from such an early point in the season, most of the other 200+ ace years didn't really get going until mid-August, just like a normal Atlantic season. 1950 for example ended with 211 ace and didn't have its first storm until August 12th. Seeing at least 190 ace from this point on is a pretty reasonable prediction given the predicted conditions imo.

I agree. I looked into this when compiling the recent TSR forecast and one of the destructive years I looked at was 2017, which didn't really start taking off until around mid-August, which was followed by a record-breaking September. A modest first half of August means nothing.

[al78]

Then considering it is August 6th, things should be going crazy soon. 2005 we were already going nuts right now with storm after storm for the gulf.

At this point in August 2005 we were at 8/3/2 with Irene already a TD and expected to become a TS on the next day so let's call it 9/3/2. The remainder of the 2005 season was thus 19/12/5. So far the numbers for 2024 are 4/2/1. With the 24/12/6 forecast that would mean the the remainder of 2024 would need numbers of 20/10/5. As such, I also expect the Atlantic to go crazy soon since we'd need 2005-level activity for the rest of the season for this forecast to verify.

Furthermore, ACE in 2005 was already at 66.0 on August 6, while we are currently at 38.9. 2005's eventual ACE was 245.3 so it still had 179.3 ACE for the rest of the season. To reach 230 ACE, 2024 would need 191.1 ACE for the rest of the season. So in terms of ACE, 2024 would have to be even more extreme than 2005 from this point.

2005 was a very unique year to see such consistent/intense activity from such an early point in the season, most of the other 200+ ace years didn't really get going until mid-August, just like a normal Atlantic season. 1950 for example ended with 211 ace and didn't have its first storm until August 12th. Seeing at least 190 ace from this point on is a pretty reasonable prediction given the predicted conditions imo.

2005 was notable for very high activity pre and post the peak-season months. August and September were active but not in a real standout way apart from the devastating hurricane Katrina.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/NOAA/status/1821579406906986859

[cycloneye]

NOAA update of August.



https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/highl ... n-atlantic

[Beef Stew]

NOAA update of August.

https://i.imgur.com/NJ7vNuR.jpeg

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/highl ... n-atlantic

Stays nearly the same as the May release; the only thing they changed was the upper end of the named storm range (from 25 down to 24), and the probability of an above-average (85 up to 90%) and below average (5 down to 0%) season.

[IcyTundra]

At this point in August 2005 we were at 8/3/2 with Irene already a TD and expected to become a TS on the next day so let's call it 9/3/2. The remainder of the 2005 season was thus 19/12/5. So far the numbers for 2024 are 4/2/1. With the 24/12/6 forecast that would mean the the remainder of 2024 would need numbers of 20/10/5. As such, I also expect the Atlantic to go crazy soon since we'd need 2005-level activity for the rest of the season for this forecast to verify.

Furthermore, ACE in 2005 was already at 66.0 on August 6, while we are currently at 38.9. 2005's eventual ACE was 245.3 so it still had 179.3 ACE for the rest of the season. To reach 230 ACE, 2024 would need 191.1 ACE for the rest of the season. So in terms of ACE, 2024 would have to be even more extreme than 2005 from this point.

2005 was a very unique year to see such consistent/intense activity from such an early point in the season, most of the other 200+ ace years didn't really get going until mid-August, just like a normal Atlantic season. 1950 for example ended with 211 ace and didn't have its first storm until August 12th. Seeing at least 190 ace from this point on is a pretty reasonable prediction given the predicted conditions imo.

2005 was notable for very high activity pre and post the peak-season months. August and September were active but not in a real standout way apart from the devastating hurricane Katrina.

There was also Rita in September which is still the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.

[al78]

2005 was a very unique year to see such consistent/intense activity from such an early point in the season, most of the other 200+ ace years didn't really get going until mid-August, just like a normal Atlantic season. 1950 for example ended with 211 ace and didn't have its first storm until August 12th. Seeing at least 190 ace from this point on is a pretty reasonable prediction given the predicted conditions imo.

2005 was notable for very high activity pre and post the peak-season months. August and September were active but not in a real standout way apart from the devastating hurricane Katrina.

There was also Rita in September which is still the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.

I didn't realise Rita held that record. I though Camille would have been the record holder if I was to take a guess.

[Cpv17]

2005 was notable for very high activity pre and post the peak-season months. August and September were active but not in a real standout way apart from the devastating hurricane Katrina.

There was also Rita in September which is still the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.

I didn't realise Rita held that record. I though Camille would have been the record holder if I was to take a guess.

If I’m not mistaken, I believe Rita had 180mph winds in the Gulf at one point. Not sure what the pressure was though.

[weeniepatrol]

There was also Rita in September which is still the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.

I didn't realise Rita held that record. I though Camille would have been the record holder if I was to take a guess.

If I’m not mistaken, I believe Rita had 180mph winds in the Gulf at one point. Not sure what the pressure was though.

Rita deepened to an incredible 895mb.

[al78]

There was also Rita in September which is still the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.

I didn't realise Rita held that record. I though Camille would have been the record holder if I was to take a guess.

If I’m not mistaken, I believe Rita had 180mph winds in the Gulf at one point. Not sure what the pressure was though.

Camille has been re-analysed as 150 kt peak intensity, down from its former 165 kt which is the number I was thinking of, which means Rita was stronger than Camille both in peak 1-min winds and central pressure. The two things I remember about Rita was it weakened down to a cat 3 at landfall (like Katrina) and there were major issues with evacuation.

[cycloneye]

A reminder that next tuesday morning, the CSU two week forecast from August 20 they September 2 will be released.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

[canes92]

I can't see how we'll up end with 20+ named storms. At this point it is mid August already.

[abajan]

I can't see how we'll up end with 20+ named storms. At this point it is mid August already.

Agreed. But who knows, we may see fewer but more intense systems. still resulting in an ACE which would qualify the season as hyperactive. So long as they stay out to sea and just send big waves for surfers to ride (and rip-current warnings are heeded), I'm good with that.

[redingtonbeach]

To me, ACE is like the accumulated baseball stat ERA. A pitcher may have one of the better ERA’s but be a losing pitcher (Jordan Zimmerman with a 3.12 ERA but a 6-12 record one year). IMHO, ACE is a worthless stat without context (number of storms landing at Cat 2 or higher? Number of population affected?) Not sure what the best context, or combination thereof, would be.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

A reminder that next tuesday morning, the CSU two week forecast from August 20 they September 2 will be released.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

They will almost certainly be revising downwards. The season has underperformed their estimate thus far.