2024 EPAC Season

[weeniepatrol]

[WaveBreaking]

Imo i think Fabio will be the dominant storm in this merger since Emilia has been struggling with shear and a CCC pattern all of its life while Fabio recently started to get some banding wrapping upshear of its circulation. Only the HAFS-A shows this outcome though, so i might be missing something.

[AnnularCane]

Fabio looks like he's menacing Emilia, while she's shrinking back from him.

[galaxy401]

Reminds me of Enrique and Felicia from 2009. Same letters of the alphabet, similar locations. Felicia was the dominant one that time. These two storms are closer though.

[lilbump3000]

[WaveBreaking]

CDOs starting to interact.

[WaveBreaking]

Imagine being on Isla Clarión (the island @ 18.3°N 114.8°W) which is not only being sandwiched by two tropical cyclones, but two tropical cyclones that are actively merging into one. Truly a unique experience.

[Kingarabian]

Will they dance or will they merge? Stay tuned.

[WaveBreaking]

Fabio’s COC now getting pulled S into Emilia.

[AnnularCane]

Fabio’s COC now getting pulled S into Emilia.

https://i.imgur.com/xnVOM00.gif

I can't watch!

[cycloneye]

Fabio has dissippated.

[WaveBreaking]

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro showing Gilma.

[Kingarabian]

Models showing an active monsoon trough extending into the CPAC. GFS most aggressive but Euro also showing the potential for a TC to form by day 10.

[Kingarabian]

Potential for 3 named systems over the next 10 days remains on the models. One strong and 2 weaker systems.

[zzzh]

Potential for 3 named systems over the next 10 days remains on the models. One strong and 2 weaker systems.

Sounds really familiar , is it going to be a repeat of early August?

[Kingarabian]

Potential for 3 named systems over the next 10 days remains on the models. One strong and 2 weaker systems.

Sounds really familiar , is it going to be a repeat of early August?

Looks like some CPAC slop in the mix.

[Kingarabian]

Should see some yellow circles across the EPAC soon. Models remain bullish.

[Kingarabian]

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

CPAC will see something per this past weeks model runs.

[Yellow Evan]

Westerly wind burst will push the monsoon trough westward - could get a few sloppy TCs but don’t trust the GFS with only a Kelvin Wave around.