ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES





Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

The eyewall of Debby is moving onshore and landfall in the Florida
Big Bend is expected to occur within the next few hours. Doppler
radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the eye of the hurricane
has become a bit more circular and deep convection remains fairly
well organized over the eastern eyewall, and in bands east of the
center that have spread across portions of northern Florida. There
have been numerous reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds,
but the strongest so far is in Horseshoe Beach, where a weather
station recently recorded a sustained wind of 57 kt and a gust to
83 kt. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
maximum winds are likely near 70 kt, and Debby will likely maintain
that intensity or strengthen a little until it reaches the coast.

After landfall, Debby is expected to slow down and turn
northeastward as the steering currents collapse, taking the system
across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia later today through
Tuesday. Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast
U.S. coast late Tuesday and Wednesday before a ridge builds to the
north of the system, which should push it back inland over South
Carolina on Thursday. Although the details of the track forecast
are unknown, there is high confidence that Debby will move slowly
while near or over the southeastern U.S., which will likely result
in catastrophic flooding in some locations. The NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in line with the consensus aids.

Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and Debby
will likely become a tropical storm over northern Florida this
afternoon. If Debby does move back offshore of the southeast U.S.,
there could be a little strengthening before it moves inland once
again. Regardless of the system's strength, the main impact is
expected to be heavy rainfall as mentioned above. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one and near the HCCA
and IVCN aids.

NHC has begun issuing hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates, and they
will continue through landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown through the morning. Residents in the Storm
Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for several more
hours farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning area along
Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 29.5N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 31.3N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1800Z 31.8N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0600Z 31.9N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/0600Z 33.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 35.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
600 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is
close to making landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. The
northern and eastern portions of the eyewall are already onshore
and the hurricane will be making landfall later this morning.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum
pressure is around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds are
still estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h).

A National Ocean Service Tide station in Cedar Key recently
reported a water level of 4.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water.

Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...80 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Alaka

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and
Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the center of
Hurricane Debby has made landfall around 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC) near
Steinhatchee, Florida in the Florida Big Bend.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure
at landfall was around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds were
estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W of STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY JUST INLAND IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 83.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF LAKE CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually
weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the
cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path
of Debby.

Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.

Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa
Bay area, through this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 83.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF LIVE OAK FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES




Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually
weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the
cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path
of Debby.

Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.

Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa
Bay area, through this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 82.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES




Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

The center of Debby has continued to move northeastward over
southeastern Georgia this evening. Earlier in the evening, there
were a few reports of sustained winds of 34-36 kt along portions of
the Georgia coast, which supported the 40-kt intensity on the
intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Although there have not been
reports that high in the past hour or two, the initial intensity is
maintained at 40 kt as the strongest winds are likely occuring in
bands offshore.

The initial motion estimate is 050/5 kt. The steering currents are
forecast to weaken further over the next couple of days, and
a slow eastward motion should begin on Tuesday when Debby is near
the Georgia coast. An even slower northward motion is expected on
Wednesday, which should bring the center toward the coast of South
Carolina Wednesday night or Thursday. Toward the end of the week,
most of the track guidance suggests that Debby may begin to move a
little faster toward the north in southerly flow between a
building ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid-level trough
over the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Although there is still
low confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, there is high
confidence that Debby will be meandering near the southeastern U.S.
coast for the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast is
similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model (HCCA) through 72
hours and lies between that model and the simple multi-model
consensus (TVCA) at the longer range.

Debby is likely to weaken a little more while it moves over land
through early Tuesday. After that, the center is forecast to move
offshore, which should allow for some gradual re-intensification.
The NHC intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and
shows only modest strengthening before the center moves back
onshore.

Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large rainfall
amounts are expected over portions of the Southeastern United
States.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts for portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and
tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of
these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 31.1N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/1200Z 31.6N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 33.8N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 36.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/0000Z 40.2N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY'S CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA COAST LATER
TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA,
SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Debby's center is just inland of the Georgia coast while most of
the deep convection is oriented in a couple of bands over the
Atlantic waters feeding northwestward into South Carolina.
Scatterometer data from late last evening indicated that the
tropical-storm-force wind field had expanded eastward over the
Atlantic waters, and that the maximum sustained winds were near 40
kt. This was confirmed by a few observations of 35-40 kt sustained
winds along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. The initial
intensity is therefore held at 40 kt.

Debby continues to move northeastward, or 050/6 kt, but the storm
will be trapped in a weak steering regime for the next couple of
days. The center is likely to move offshore the Georgia coast
later today, but then meander off the coast of South Carolina
through early Thursday. After that time, a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough
over the upper Midwest should cause Debby to move faster toward the
north across the Carolinas and then into the Mid-Atlantic region
late this week. The updated NHC track forecast is a bit west of
the previous forecast starting at about 48 hours, trending in the
direction of the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Little change in Debby's intensity is expected today and tonight as
the center moves offshore. However, some strengthening is forecast
beginning on Wednesday due to the storm being in a low-shear
environment and over very warm waters of about 29 degrees Celsius.
The NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 50
kt in 48 hours, just before the center reaches the coast again,
which is near the top end of the guidance. Weakening is expected
to begin in 60 hours once the center moves inland. The cyclone is
likely to merge with a front over the eastern United States in 4 to
5 days.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding
impacts from northern North Carolina through portions of
Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England through Sunday
morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and
tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of
these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 31.6N 81.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/1800Z 31.6N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 07/0600Z 31.7N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 31.9N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 33.1N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 34.1N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 38.5N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/0600Z 43.4N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER
TODAY...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND
NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 81.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 81.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface synoptic data, satellite imagery, and WSR-88D radar
observations indicate that the center of the cyclone is near
the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border.
As a result of its interaction with land, Debby's intensity has
decreased to near 35 kt. Most of the deep convection is occurring
in bands well to the east and northeast of the center as drier air
has been impinging on the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.

Debby has been gradually turning to the right and slowing down,
with a current motion estimate of around 060/5 kt. The cyclone is
situated in an area of weak steering currents within the subtropical
ridge. The track guidance shows a slow, generally eastward motion
during the next day or so, bringing the center out over the South
Carolina coastal waters. By late tomorrow and early Thursday, the
global models predict a strengthening mid-level ridge to the east of
Debby. This evolution should cause the system to turn northward
and north-northwestward and move back over the coastline in 36 to
48 hours. Thereafter, Debby is expected to move northeastward near
the northeast U.S. coast at an increasing forward speed, ahead of a
mid-tropospheric trough moving into the Ohio Valley region. The
official forecast is a blend of the latest model consensus
predictions.

Although the center of Debby is forecast to be over water later
today, the lack of an inner core should allow only slow
re-strengthening for the next day or so. Since the system is not
expected to move far enough offshore to interact significantly with
the Gulf Stream, this should limit the amount of oceanic heat
content available to the storm. The official intensity forecast
is near or slightly above the latest statistical/dynamical DSHIPS
and LGEM guidance.


Key Messages:

1.Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina
through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.
Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding impacts from northern
North Carolina through portions of Mid-Atlantic States and southern
New England through Sunday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia
to North Carolina through Thursday. Storm surge and tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect for portions of these areas.
Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 31.9N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 32.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 33.2N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 34.2N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 35.7N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 40.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1200Z 45.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 80.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface, satellite, and radar data show that Debby continues to
linger near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South
Carolina border. The cyclone lacks strong convection near its
center and the tropical-storm-force winds are mainly occurring in
some bands well to the northeast and east of the center. This was
also shown by an earlier ASCAT pass. The central pressure
remains essentially unchanged, and the intensity is kept at 35
kt for this advisory.

Debby remains trapped in a zone of weak steering currents within
the subtropical ridge, and the current motion estimate is a very
slow 070/3 kt. The track guidance shows a generally eastward
motion for the next day or so, taking the center temporarily
offshore. In 24-36 hours, a building mid-level ridge should cause
the system to turn northward and move back inland early Thursday.
After that, Debby is likely to accelerate northeastward over the
eastern and northeastern U.S. ahead of an approaching mid-level
trough. The official track forecast has been adjusted toward the
latest consensus model guidance, and is somewhat to the left and
faster than the previous one.

Assuming that Debby moves back over water tonight and Wednesday,
some re-strengthening is anticipated. However since the cyclone
lacks an inner core and is not likely to move far enough east to
interact with the high oceanic heat content of the Gulf Stream,
re-intensification is likely to be limited. The official intensity
forecast is at the high end of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South
Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable
flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina,
western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of
Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and
northern New England through Saturday.

2 Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina
through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 32.1N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY NOW OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 80.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Debby's circulation consists of a nearly 60 nm wide convection-free
region near the center, which is drifting eastward off the coast of
South Carolina. Moderate to deep convection is organized in broken
bands well away from the center, with the strongest band currently
feeding into eastern North Carolina. The storm appears to have
strengthened slightly now that a greater proportion of the
circulation is back over water, and the initial intensity is set at
40 kt based on a 0143 UTC ASCAT-B pass.

The longer-term motion is slowly eastward, or 085/4 kt. Although
Debby is expected to maintain a slow motion for the next 24 hours or
so, a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic should
cause the storm to turn northward today, with the center reaching
the coast of South Carolina by tonight. Debby should then
accelerate toward the north and northeast beginning on Thursday over
the eastern United States and eastern Canada, ahead of a deep-layer
trough moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. No
changes were required to the new NHC track forecast, which lies on
top of the previous forecast and down the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Debby's structure does not argue for any type of significant
strengthening, but warm ocean waters of 29 degrees Celsius and low
shear could allow the wind field to strengthen a bit over the next
24 hours while the circulation remains over water. A peak intensity
of 45 kt is shown at 12 and 24 hours, which is generally in line
with the bulk of the intensity guidance. Weakening is forecast to
begin by 36 hours once the center moves inland, and global model
fields and phase-space diagrams indicate that Debby is likely to be
absorbed by a front and become extratropical by 60 hours over the
Mid-Atlantic region of the United States.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of eastern South Carolina and
southeast North Carolina is expected to persist through Thursday
which would broaden areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy
rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from
the Piedmont of the Carolinas, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States,
and Vermont through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from South Carolina to North Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
surface winds to near 50 kt in an area located over 100 n mi
southeast of the center. Most of Debby's deep convection is
occurring in bands well to the northeast and southeast of the
center, with limited shower and thunderstorm activity near/over the
center. The advisory intensity is increased to 50 kt based on the
aircraft data.

The cyclone has been moving slowly northeastward and the initial
motion estimate is 040/4 kt. Debby is currently situated between
two subtropical high pressure centers and remains within relatively
weak steering currents. Later today and tonight, the ridge to
the east of Debby should build slightly and cause the system
to move generally northward and make landfall in 12 to 24 hours.
The steering flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough near the Great
Lakes is likely to cause Debby to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward over the eastern U.S. during the next few days. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is in good
agreement with the corrected consensus guidance.

Given that the strongest winds are occurring well to southeast of
the center, Debby lacks a well-defined inner core, which indicates
that significant re-intensification is not likely. However, since
the system lies over warm water this could allow for some limited
strengthening before landfall and this is reflected in the official
forecast. The official forecast remains at the high end of the
model intensity guidance. Debby should merge with a frontal zone
and become an extratropical cyclone over the northeastern U.S. in a
couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 32.3N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 32.9N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 35.2N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 38.0N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 42.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 52.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 54.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY STILL MOVING SLOWLY...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Debby is producing small, broken bands of convection around its
center this afternoon. The storm continues to meander around NOAA
buoy 41004, and data from that station indicate the central pressure
remains around 995 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported peak
SFMR winds of 47 kt within convection to the northeast of the center
during their last pass through the storm a few hours ago. Based on
these data and the earlier flight-level winds, the initial intensity
is held at 50 kt.

Although the storm is moving over warm waters, it lacks an inner
core and has a large radius of maximum wind. Therefore, only modest
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while the system
approaches South Carolina, in best agreement with some of the
statistical guidance. Once inland, Debby is expected to quickly lose
tropical characteristics and weaken. The interaction of Debby with
the upper trough will lead to a baroclinic transition as the low
merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical. The NHC
forecast shows this occurring by Friday. However, it is important to
note that these changes do not diminish the threat of heavy rainfall
and flooding across portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and
northeastern United States during the next few days.

The long-term motion of Debby is a north-northeastward drift within
weak steering currents between two subtropical high pressure areas.
However, more recent fixes suggest the system may be turning
northward as expected, with a ridge beginning to build to the east
of Debby over the western Atlantic. Thus, a north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected through tonight while Debby approaches
the coast of South Carolina. After landfall, Debby will become
caught in southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough near the Great Lakes region. This will cause the storm to
accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Friday and into
the weekend. With the guidance in good agreement on this scenario,
little change was made to the updated NHC track forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 32.5N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Debby has
a large central area of light and variable winds, with bands of
deep convection well removed from the center in both the northern
and southern semicircles. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt
for this advisory, with these winds likely confined to the area of
stronger convection to the southeast of the center. The central
pressure based on surface observations is near 994 mb.

Debby has been drifting just west of due north for the past several
hours with an initial motion of 345/3. This has brought the center
near the South Carolina coast, and it is expected to move inland
during the next few hours. A continued slow north-northwestward
motion is expected for the next 24 h, with the center crossing
eastern South Carolina moving into North Carolina. After that, the
cyclone should recurve to the north and northeast on the east side
of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes. The latest track
guidance has shifted a little to the west of the previous guidance,
and the new forecast track is also shifted a little westward.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves
inland. After that, Debby is expected to weaken, with the system
dropping below tropical-storm strength after 24 h. As Debby
crosses through the mid-Atlantic States, the cyclone is expected
to merge with a frontal system and become an extratropical low by
60 h. However, it is important to note that none of these changes
will diminish the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across
portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United
States during the next few days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 32.9N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 35.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 42.1N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1200Z 46.3N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z 49.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven