2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

12z ICON.

[WeatherBoy2000]

12z ICON.

It seems like the CMC/GFS are beginning to jump on board with this wave as well, but they have it further south and getting wrapped up with Hispaniola.

[IsabelaWeather]

12z ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/q5TBe9A.jpeg

What time is that valid for?

[Stratton23]

12z GFS completely misses the trough snd manages to get into the gulf

[aspen]

12z GFS has a Laura ‘20 track for this wave: runs over all of the Greater Antilles and emerges into the Gulf, making a beeline for Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

12z ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/q5TBe9A.jpeg

What time is that valid for?

At 180 hours which is the end of run.

[Stratton23]

12z GEFS has two camps, one group recurves early after just passing the antilles , the other group tracks through the caribbean south of cuba, this one will be interesting to watch

[jlauderdal]

12z GEFS has two camps, one group recurves early after just passing the antilles , the other group tracks through the caribbean south of cuba, this one will be interesting to watch

Similiar story as Debby and Beryl, one of these times euro will nail it.

[IcyTundra]

I guess if the wave is far enough south and stays weak for a while it might not feel the weakness from that trough off the east coast. We haven’t gotten any recurving OTS tracks this season surprisingly and this one might not be a slam dunk for a recurve either.

[Stratton23]

Most of the tracks on the GEFS that track through the caribbean and dont recurve, end up being stronger in the longer term, interesting

[Jr0d]

My guess is we will need a few more model runs to verify there is something to watch before we get a lemon.

Way too early to make an educated guess on track and intensity, but the general rule is weaker storms go further west, stronger storms turn north much sooner.

Will the GFS get it right this early? Or will the CMC and ICON get it right with an early recurve. Too early for the free EURO models for me but the ensembles are showing something next Tuesday over the north Lesser Antilles.

[Steve]

ICON valid 7pm next Thursday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=180

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro appears to be coming in further SW than previous runs through 144 hours. May get pulled north across Hispaniola at 168.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro appears to be coming in further SW than previous runs through 144 hours. May get pulled north across Hispaniola at 168.

This Euro run then has a TC form from this in the SE Bahamas that turns NNE aiming for W of Bermuda.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yeah, I'm not willing to bite on an East Coast trough at 200 plus hours... Especially with the way the Euro initially did the same thing with Debby. This one will have to be watched.

[Stratton23]

Im betting on a trend toward the united states, even the euro made a decent shift west

[Stratton23]

EPS 12z has more US impacts/ some gulf too, less recurves

[AnnularCane]

12z GFS has a Laura ‘20 track for this wave: runs over all of the Greater Antilles and emerges into the Gulf, making a beeline for Louisiana.

I see something going into around AL/FL but not Louisiana.

[LarryWx]

EPS 12z has more US impacts/ some gulf too, less recurves

Indeed, the 12Z EPS has only ~~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent runs. The rest are either close or actually hit, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run.

[aspen]

ICON valid 7pm next Thursday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=180

Another TC in the middle of the MDR on that run. Gotta watch the Euro and EPS over the next few days to see if they latch onto that.

The precursor wave appears on the 12z GFS, Euro, and CMC, but none of them develop it yet.