It would be very funny to see Fabio starting a RI phase despite the Fujiwhara interaction with Emilia
EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It would be very funny to see Fabio starting a RI phase despite the Fujiwhara interaction with Emilia
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024
Fabio has become better organized today with a larger area of deep
convection becoming more persistent. Based on microwave data from
the past 6 h, the center of Fabio appears to be located underneath
the northern portion of the convective area. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, while the
latest objective intensity estimates range from 37 kt to 55 kt.
The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, but
that could be a bit conservative.
The initial motion is now 300/16 kt. Fabio's motion should be
dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the
west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move west-northwestward at a
similar forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next
36 h or so. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the
previous track.
Some strengthening could occur in the next 12 h or so. After that,
no additional strengthening is expected as Fabio moves closer to
Emilia. This forecast assumes that Fabio will be absorbed by Emilia
Wednesday or Wednesday night. Confidence in this forecast scenario
is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that
Emilia will absorb Fabio.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.3N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024
Fabio has become better organized today with a larger area of deep
convection becoming more persistent. Based on microwave data from
the past 6 h, the center of Fabio appears to be located underneath
the northern portion of the convective area. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, while the
latest objective intensity estimates range from 37 kt to 55 kt.
The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, but
that could be a bit conservative.
The initial motion is now 300/16 kt. Fabio's motion should be
dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the
west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move west-northwestward at a
similar forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next
36 h or so. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the
previous track.
Some strengthening could occur in the next 12 h or so. After that,
no additional strengthening is expected as Fabio moves closer to
Emilia. This forecast assumes that Fabio will be absorbed by Emilia
Wednesday or Wednesday night. Confidence in this forecast scenario
is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that
Emilia will absorb Fabio.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.3N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024
Fabio has become better organized this evening. The satellite
presentation reveals a developing deep convective band wrapping
around the southern portion of the cyclone, and a small Central
Dense Overcast (CDO) with cold cloud tops of -83C that appears to be
forming over the surface center. A blend of the Dvorak satellite
and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates, and a recent SATCON
intensity analysis yields 55 kt for this advisory.
A low shear and moist thermodynamic environment should allow Fabio
to strengthen before the cyclone directly interacts and becomes
absorbed by Emilia. The deterministic guidance also shows an
upper-level low moving toward Fabio from the northeast and producing
favorable upper diffluent flow over the northeast portion of the
cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the previous
one and now shows Fabio's peak intensity at 60 kt, which is close to
the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. It's worth noting, however, that
the initialization of the two tropical cyclones in the GFS seems to
be the most reasonable based on the structure and intensity of both
cyclones. Therefore, a change in the forecast philosophy may be
deemed necessary in subsequent advisories.
Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or
295/15 kt. The global models show that Fabio will move between
Emilia to the west-southwest and a mid-tropospheric ridge extending
from the west Gulf of Mexico to the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. The models also generally
agree that Emilia will capture and absorb Fabio, but the exact
timing for which this will occur is in some doubt. The
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET and the COAMPS-TC show this evolution taking place
within 36 hours, while the GFS run indicates the two tropical
cyclones cyclonically orbiting around each other during the next
three to four days. The best solution at this time is to show a
similar scenario to the previous advisory and hedge toward the
better-performing consensus guidance with Fabio becoming absorbed by
Emilia by mid-week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.6N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.6N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024
Fabio has become better organized this evening. The satellite
presentation reveals a developing deep convective band wrapping
around the southern portion of the cyclone, and a small Central
Dense Overcast (CDO) with cold cloud tops of -83C that appears to be
forming over the surface center. A blend of the Dvorak satellite
and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates, and a recent SATCON
intensity analysis yields 55 kt for this advisory.
A low shear and moist thermodynamic environment should allow Fabio
to strengthen before the cyclone directly interacts and becomes
absorbed by Emilia. The deterministic guidance also shows an
upper-level low moving toward Fabio from the northeast and producing
favorable upper diffluent flow over the northeast portion of the
cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the previous
one and now shows Fabio's peak intensity at 60 kt, which is close to
the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. It's worth noting, however, that
the initialization of the two tropical cyclones in the GFS seems to
be the most reasonable based on the structure and intensity of both
cyclones. Therefore, a change in the forecast philosophy may be
deemed necessary in subsequent advisories.
Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or
295/15 kt. The global models show that Fabio will move between
Emilia to the west-southwest and a mid-tropospheric ridge extending
from the west Gulf of Mexico to the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. The models also generally
agree that Emilia will capture and absorb Fabio, but the exact
timing for which this will occur is in some doubt. The
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET and the COAMPS-TC show this evolution taking place
within 36 hours, while the GFS run indicates the two tropical
cyclones cyclonically orbiting around each other during the next
three to four days. The best solution at this time is to show a
similar scenario to the previous advisory and hedge toward the
better-performing consensus guidance with Fabio becoming absorbed by
Emilia by mid-week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.6N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.6N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Will merge with Emilia on thursday.
Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery
shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and
vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia
continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio.
Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared
convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level
center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.
Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio
is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion
should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer
circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends.
Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio
appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The
NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h
before merging with Emilia on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery
shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and
vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia
continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio.
Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared
convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level
center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.
Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio
is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion
should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer
circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends.
Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio
appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The
NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h
before merging with Emilia on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Remnants - Discussion
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024
This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Fabio has
succumbed to the increasingly harsh surrounding environment. Only a
poorly defined surface circulation of low cloud elements is what
remains of the tropical cyclone. Therefore, Fabio no longer meets
the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC
advisory. The post-tropical cyclone's initial intensity is reduced
to 35 kt, based on the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates.
Further weakening is forecast in the short term before merging with
Emilia on Thursday.
Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be southwestward or
225/14 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight, while it moves around the western periphery of Emilia's
circulation and eventually merges with Emilia on Thursday, or
sooner.
For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN03 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 18.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024
This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Fabio has
succumbed to the increasingly harsh surrounding environment. Only a
poorly defined surface circulation of low cloud elements is what
remains of the tropical cyclone. Therefore, Fabio no longer meets
the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC
advisory. The post-tropical cyclone's initial intensity is reduced
to 35 kt, based on the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates.
Further weakening is forecast in the short term before merging with
Emilia on Thursday.
Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be southwestward or
225/14 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight, while it moves around the western periphery of Emilia's
circulation and eventually merges with Emilia on Thursday, or
sooner.
For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN03 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 18.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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M a r k
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical - Discussion
RIP Fabio, you had a good run before being eaten.


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