2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

EPS 12z has more US impacts/ some gulf too, less recurves

Indeed, the 12Z EPS has only ~~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent runs. The rest are either close or actually hit, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run.

[MarioProtVI]

EPS 12z has more US impacts/ some gulf too, less recurves

Indeed, the 12Z EPS has only ~~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent runs. The rest are either close or actually hit, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr2g0tvb/loop.gif

Realllly don’t need an Irene repeat up here if that shift W continues with the recurving near Bahamas - ground is already saturated and in addition to whatever’s left of Debby we do NOT need more rain as we’d flood pretty easy.

[aspen]

18z GFS is suddenly really on board with development, and shows a TC in the MDR in only a few days. Probably gonna be a bonkers run.

[IcyTundra]

Wow that is an incredibly small TC on the GFS. Now that the GFS is onboard for 2 straight runs as well as the Euro I expect the NHC to mention it in the TWO tonight.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS is suddenly really on board with development, and shows a TC in the MDR in only a few days. Probably gonna be a bonkers run.

This is gonna be one of those runs where the trough lifts out and it gets shoved west, isn’t it…

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy, here comes Ernesto!

[WaveBreaking]

18z GFS is suddenly really on board with development, and shows a TC in the MDR in only a few days. Probably gonna be a bonkers run.

This is gonna be one of those runs where the trough lifts out and it gets shoved west, isn’t it…

You got that right

[boca]

Looks like recurve in the Bahamas and the Bermuda high pushed off did the east.

[jlauderdal]

18z GFS is suddenly really on board with development, and shows a TC in the MDR in only a few days. Probably gonna be a bonkers run.

This is gonna be one of those runs where the trough lifts out and it gets shoved west, isn’t it…

You got that right

At least one a year nails us and since its early in the season, there will be more.

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS it was a low over Cuba 18Z its trough sheared east coast TS off Florida.
GFS trying to give WXman57 a little more vacation time.

[boca]

Looks like recurve in the Bahamas and the Bermuda high pushed off to the east.

[Stratton23]

Doesnt surprise me at all what the GFS is showing, its finally seeing that MJO beginning to spark things, and i suspect we are really going to see models light up the basin as the week progresses

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS is suddenly really on board with development, and shows a TC in the MDR in only a few days. Probably gonna be a bonkers run.

This is gonna be one of those runs where the trough lifts out and it gets shoved west, isn’t it…

You got that right
https://i.imgur.com/cSx8x1p.gif

Looks like it escaped just in time, haha. Still, this is one to watch. Its low latitude means that recurve is not a sure thing and will be highly dependent on the strength, timing, and characteristics of the trough, which is likely to vary a lot at this range.

If future runs continue to show development, get your knives and pitchforks ready for the recurve wars that will transpire over the next week.

[BobHarlem]

After that I'll bet it'll show up on the outlook soon.

[TomballEd]

At 240 hours plus, the takeaway is that the two main ops develop the wave within a week. GFS still has not so great model support from the GEFS but I am starting to wonder if that is more related to lower ensemble resolution.

[jlauderdal]

At 240 hours plus, the takeaway is that the two main ops develop the wave within a week. GFS still has not so great model support from the GEFS but I am starting to wonder if that is more related to lower ensemble resolution.

It took days for the models to get aligned with debbie and beryl, expect more of the same but it was a good lesson about focusing on ensembles for the longer range.

[weeniepatrol]

Goat Forecast System with another banger

[floridasun]

we need see what models show by sunday see still show system were system do denpend on high breaking up by trough coming into east coast or high stay strong pull system more west

[cycloneye]

After that I'll bet it'll show up on the outlook soon.

Not at 8 PM but if GFS repeats at 00z run, then it will be up.

[AnnularCane]

12Z GFS it was a low over Cuba 18Z its trough sheared east coast TS off Florida.
GFS trying to give WXman57 a little more vacation time.

And he's going to need it since there's a decent chance he isn't going to get much of it over the next few months.