Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[kevin]

The area that multiple models are developing now has a lemon (0/20).

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located on the coast of South Carolina.

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in the central or western
tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this
system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during
the early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[lilbump3000]

[weeniepatrol]

That's over 90% of members showing development. Lot of powerful hurricanes in there.

[cycloneye]

The question is which wave will be that triggers development.

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/A7Zal7d.png

That's over 90% of members showing development. Lot of powerful hurricanes in there.

Funny that potential Ernesto 2024 is taking a similar track as Ernesto 2006, but further east and much stronger (likely due to less land interaction and better ENSO background overall).

Let's hope it stays this way and doesn't become a land threat in later runs, but seeing how Euro and EPS initially showed Beryl and Debby, that may not be a guarantee.

[Teban54]

Notice how on the 0z operational Euro, the Bermuda high is building back towards the end of the run, forcing the (now 965 mb) hurricane on an almost due north track. I have to think that if the run continued, it could easily hit somewhere on the east coast.

The operational is near the western end of the EPS envelope, though.



0z GFS, despite being similar in strength and track, shows a very different upper level setup in the same time frame, resulting in a much more classic recurve:

[mantis83]

East coast troughing showing up just as it starts to get active. Perfect timing if you ask me……

[Teban54]

East coast troughing showing up just as it starts to get active. Perfect timing if you ask me……

Hey Mantis, what happened to your earlier calls that the Euro for Debby was on a "consistent trend" of recurving east of Florida, due to the "Florida forcefield" that was in "full effect"?

[Teban54]

6z GFS has 978 mb on Lesser Antilles. Slower and further north than previous runs.

[jlauderdal]

East coast troughing showing up just as it starts to get active. Perfect timing if you ask me……

Hey Mantis, what happened to your earlier calls that the Euro for Debby was on a "consistent trend" of recurving east of Florida, due to the "Florida forcefield" that was in "full effect"?

I bought the early eps on debbie, not this time and as we see trend was west so lets give it time and not focus too hard on the entertaining op runs.

Forcefield: there is no force field around florida, its around SE Florida not including the keys, IRMA did real damage to the conch republic.

This is looking like mid september vs early august, the long range(30+ days out)folks nailed this uptick, august 8th-10th was identified as favorable and here we are, they also hit the uptick in June that gave us beryl.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Will have to see if the development time period gets delayed any. Think with a trough pattern setting up, the earlier this one develops, the less trouble it'll be.

Strong model support between the GFS, Euro, and their respective models.

[hurricaneCW]

Will have to see if the development time period gets delayed any. Think with a trough pattern setting up, the earlier this one develops, the less trouble it'll be.

Strong model support between the GFS, Euro, and their respective models.

Atlantic ridge has been very strong, I think this will impact the east coast. Debby was forecast to recurve east of Mid Atlantic & New England after the SE hit instead it's going through central PA.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Will have to see if the development time period gets delayed any. Think with a trough pattern setting up, the earlier this one develops, the less trouble it'll be.

Strong model support between the GFS, Euro, and their respective models.

Atlantic ridge has been very strong, I think this will impact the east coast. Debby was forecast to recurve east of Mid Atlantic & New England after the SE hit instead it's going through central PA.

True, but Debby also delayed development (ended up actually developing south of Cuba, a solution that none of the models saw happening) due to significant dry air.

[mantis83]

6z GFS has 978 mb on Lesser Antilles. Slower and further north than previous runs.

https://i.postimg.cc/rFrd6hvc/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-25.png

pretty strong trough setting up looking to scoop this one up and out.....

[Category5Kaiju]

East coast troughing showing up just as it starts to get active. Perfect timing if you ask me……

Hey Mantis, what happened to your earlier calls that the Euro for Debby was on a "consistent trend" of recurving east of Florida, due to the "Florida forcefield" that was in "full effect"?

It's all good. I mean, 2010, 2011, 2021, and 2023 were like that. Well, that is until you meet a season like 1933, 2004, or 2017 where the "frequent-OTS-storms" pattern fails to materialize.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over South Carolina.

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in the central or western
tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this
system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during
the early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

[Weathertracker96]

Is Debby expected to affect the steering of this potential system? I know some models have it OTS but with the way the high pressure has been so far this year, it’s best to keep watching it & not write it off.

[AutoPenalti]

East coast troughing showing up just as it starts to get active. Perfect timing if you ask me……

Hey Mantis, what happened to your earlier calls that the Euro for Debby was on a "consistent trend" of recurving east of Florida, due to the "Florida forcefield" that was in "full effect"?

It's all good. I mean, 2010, 2011, 2021, and 2023 were like that. Well, that is until you meet a season like 1933, 2004, or 2017 where the "frequent-OTS-storms" pattern fails to materialize.

Tbf, all his posts have the keywords "trough", "fish", "florida force field", and "up, up and away".

So, Mantis has a bias, which I can't fault them for, a broken clock is right twice a day I guess.

[SFLcane]

06z eps..

[TomballEd]

Yesterday's GFS run showing a weak system, passing over parts of the G. Antilles delaying but not preventing development, is a sign if this can avoid developing, it would be a Gulf threat. But it would seem if it becomes a TC before the Lesser Antilles, it would bend N, cross the G. Antilles, and probably stay way offshore after. Not a fish if it hits land as a TC.