Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[TomballEd]

EPS has a strong signal for recurve and missing ECUSA. Obviously, things can change this far out, but I still think development before the Caribbean makes it much more likely to recurve

[jlauderdal]

06z eps..

https://i.postimg.cc/3R78RNQK/ggg.png

24 hours ago it looked very different, reminds of debbie on the early runs

[AutoPenalti]

06z eps..

https://i.postimg.cc/3R78RNQK/ggg.png

24 hours ago it looked very different, reminds of debbie on the early runs

Weaker(late bloomer) solutions compared to the 0z. Not a good sign.

[WeatherBoy2000]

06z eps..

https://i.postimg.cc/3R78RNQK/ggg.png

That hardly looks like an out to sea run to me. There's also this:

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1821479936848257397

[Kazmit]

06z eps..

https://i.postimg.cc/3R78RNQK/ggg.png

Looks like they all go through the Hebert Box.

[aspen]

06z eps..

https://i.postimg.cc/3R78RNQK/ggg.png

And another developing wave right behind it, which might be the one on the 06z GFS.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/1821561021057695912

[wxman57]

The disturbance that the models develop is not near the Lesser Antilles, it's way out near 30W. You can track the 850mb vorticity back to the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Good chance of development next Tue/Wed. If it develops then, it should see a big weakness in the ridge to the north and take a track north of the Caribbean. Hope so. Don't need another in the Gulf or on the East Coast. Nothing guaranteed this far out.

[AutoPenalti]

The disturbance that the models develop is not near the Lesser Antilles, it's way out near 30W. You can track the 850mb vorticity back to the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Good chance of development next Tue/Wed. If it develops then, it should see a big weakness in the ridge to the north and take a track north of the Caribbean. Hope so. Don't need another in the Gulf or on the East Coast. Nothing guaranteed this far out.

Yup, it's nearing 30W. GFS has hinted at this wave developing from here.  https://x.com/TacleTheTropics/status/1821528481420779897

[Nuno]

East coast troughing showing up just as it starts to get active. Perfect timing if you ask me……

Hey Mantis, what happened to your earlier calls that the Euro for Debby was on a "consistent trend" of recurving east of Florida, due to the "Florida forcefield" that was in "full effect"?

It's all good. I mean, 2010, 2011, 2021, and 2023 were like that. Well, that is until you meet a season like 1933, 2004, or 2017 where the "frequent-OTS-storms" pattern fails to materialize.

To be fair, those 2004/2017 seasons tend to be the outlier compared to all those other recent seasons you mention. Of course, it was no bearing on the current pattern and season

Too early to tell but we've seen this OTS pattern shift further west, already with Debby.

[cycloneye]

12z ICON has the strongest run yet for this system.

[aspen]

Hey Mantis, what happened to your earlier calls that the Euro for Debby was on a "consistent trend" of recurving east of Florida, due to the "Florida forcefield" that was in "full effect"?

It's all good. I mean, 2010, 2011, 2021, and 2023 were like that. Well, that is until you meet a season like 1933, 2004, or 2017 where the "frequent-OTS-storms" pattern fails to materialize.

To be fair, those 2004/2017 seasons tend to be the outlier compared to all those other recent seasons you mention. Of course, it was no bearing on the current pattern and season

Too early to tell but we've seen this OTS pattern shift further west, already with Debby.

I wonder just how much further west/SW the models will shift in the coming week, if at all. Will it be a slight shift towards an Irene/Floyd track that puts the entire eastern seaboard at risk? Will it be a significant shift towards a Laura or Beryl-like track that threatens the Gulf? Or will it stay north of the GAs and go into Bermuda or Atlantic Canada like Fiona? Tons of possibilities at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

12z ICON has the strongest run yet for this system.

https://i.imgur.com/lbUrWl7.gif

Weakness is there at least.

[cycloneye]

kevin, modified the title to reflect the area that may trigger development.

[TomballEd]

The disturbance that the models develop is not near the Lesser Antilles, it's way out near 30W. You can track the 850mb vorticity back to the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Good chance of development next Tue/Wed. If it develops then, it should see a big weakness in the ridge to the north and take a track north of the Caribbean. Hope so. Don't need another in the Gulf or on the East Coast. Nothing guaranteed this far out.

Looking at 0Z ensembles, GFS family and CMC family make a recurve almost certain, the GFS could give it a window. If it enters the Caribbean and isn't already a TC, and gets past 80W before developing, that is the only way to the Gulf based on current 15 day ensemble heights.

WxMan57, do you have access to the control run of the ensemble. I'm starting to think the op GFS isn't well supported in TC genesis by the ensembles because of the lower resolution. If the control run isn't close to the op, than resolution does make a difference.

Now for the ICON, it develops before the Caribbean and is curving N, apparently safely after sea (after it passes through the Mona Gap, which would spare Hispaniola, but is probably not going to happen). I know, the ICON, but it is available before the GFS.

['CaneFreak]

Latest operational GFS out to 168 hours is weaker and farther southwest much closer to the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

[aspen]

12z CMC finally gets a robust TC out of this.

12z GFS is weaker heading into the Lesser Antilles and interacts with Hispaniola.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS weaker but further W getting into the S Bahamas through 189

[Spacecoast]

0z EPS strike prob....

[toad strangler]

Where is mantis when you need him. It's up, up, and away! after making it as far W as S Bahamas on the 12z GFS operational.